Gonzaga won the 2018 Maui Invitational with its 89-87 victory over No. 1 Duke in the championship game on Wednesday. It’s a result that in the short term keeps the Bulldogs’ undefeated record alive and could potentially vault them to No. 1 in the next AP Top 25 Poll. But in the long term, it could suggest a bright future in the 2019 NCAA Tournament for Gonzaga.

We analyzed how past Maui Invitational champions have fared in the NCAA Tournament in the last 34 years and found that the second-most common single outcome is the Maui Invitational champion winning the national championship, which has happened five times (14.7 percent).

However, more than half of the time the Maui Invitational champion doesn’t make the second weekend of the NCAA tournament.

Eleven of the 34 teams lost in the second round, four lost in the first round and three didn’t make the tournament. Most recently, Notre Dame qualified for the NIT after star forward Bonzie Colson missed roughly two months due to an injury.

Nearly a quarter (eight of 34) of the past Maui Invitational champions have made the Final Four, including the five national champions.

Only one Maui Invitational champion, Arizona in the 2000-01 season, made the national championship but lost. UCLA (2007) and North Carolina (2000) lost in the Final Four.

Here’s how past Maui Invitational champions have fared in the NCAA Tournament, with a second-round exit being the most common result.

NCAA Tournament Outcome	Frequency	Percentage
Won national championship	5	14.7%
Lost national championship	1	2.9%
Lost in Final Four	2	5.8%
Lost in Elite Eight	4	11.7%
Lost in Sweet 16	4	11.7%
Lost in second round	11	32.3%
Lost in first round	4	11.7%
Missed NCAA Tournament	3	8.8%

 

Here’s the breakdown of the seeds that past Maui Invitational champions have earned in the NCAA Tournament. A No. 1 seed is the most common seed for champions and nearly two-thirds (22 of 34) earned a top-three seed.

Seed	Frequency
No. 1	8
No. 2	7
No. 3	7
No. 4	0
No. 5	3
No. 6	0
No. 7	2
No. 8	3
No. 9	0
No. 10	1

 

The chart above shows why past Maui Invitational champions have been able to cut down the nets in the NCAA Tournament five times. By earning top-four, protected — and often No. 1 — seeds (which was partially made possible by strong non-conference resumes featuring the wins earned in Maui), teams that won a title in Hawaii have been able to consistently set themselves up for success during the Big Dance.

Gonzaga’s resume now includes wins over Duke, Arizona, Illinois and Texas A&M, and it’s only November. The Bulldogs still have opportunities against Creighton, Washington, Tennessee and North Carolina, which means the Maui Invitational could produce another No. 1 seed come March.