West Virginia vs. Arizona State Prediction, Cactus Bowl Preview

The 27th annual Cactus Bowl pits two schools, the Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5), that have met just one time back in 1979. Check out the West Virginia vs. Arizona State prediction and game preview.

West Virginia vs. Arizona State Game Preview

Broadcast

Date: Saturday, January 2
Game Time: 10:15 ET
Network: ESPN

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Why You Need To Care

Regardless of what happens in Phoenix on Saturday night, 2015 will be labeled a disappointment for Arizona State and West Virginia. Still, a bowl win would be a great way to send off the seniors and capture positive vibe that can be taken into next year.

After winning 10 games in each of the last two seasons, this isn’t how the Sun Devils scripted 2015. ASU was talking title contention in the summer, with the personnel to seemingly back it up. However, it didn’t take long to recognize that the current edition wasn’t going to be nearly as dangerous as Todd Graham’s first three squads in Tempe. The Devils opened with a loss to Texas A&M, largely struggled against decent opponents and didn’t become bowl eligible until beating rival Arizona on Nov. 21. A losing season would be a whole other level of despair, especially in a quasi-home game, so there’ll be plenty of motivation for ASU to close the year with a win.

West Virginia followed a similar trajectory as Arizona State this past fall—beat the average opponents, bow to the good ones. Dana Holgorsen’s fifth team in Morgantown was about as mediocre as its 7-5 mark, going 0-4 versus ranked teams and claiming its best victory over Texas Tech on Nov. 7. The coach, somewhat fortunate to have survived another ho-hum campaign, is now 25-25 in his last four seasons with the Mountaineers. And he can certainly help improve the hazy optics dogging him by capping the year with the program’s first bowl victory and first eight-win season since 2011.

Why Arizona State Will Win

An already unbalanced and erratic West Virginia offense will wilt in the face of the Sun Devil pressure.

Arizona State is home to one of the most active front sevens in the country, leading the country with 44 sacks and ranking fifth with 101 stops for minus yards. Tyler Orlosky is one of the Big 12’s best centers, but the balance of the line is a collection of ham-and-eggers. And that’s going to be an issue against the athleticism of the Devils, specifically linebackers Antonio Longino and Salamo Fiso. If ASU can continue to win the line of scrimmage, it’ll help neutralize the Neers’ best weapon, RB Wendell Smallwood, and compound the inaccuracy of QB Skyler Howard, who completed less than 50% of his throws in four of his last seven games.

Why West Virginia Will Win

With a month to prepare, Holgorsen will be dangerous.

Despite his team’s struggles this year, Holgorsen is still a respected offensive schemer. Meanwhile, ASU’s top offensive coach, coordinator Mike Norvell, is now the head guy at Memphis. He’ll be missed by the Sun Devils. Holgorsen has done a nice job of swiveling in the direction of Smallwood this fall. However, against a solid Arizona State run defense, the coach will want to give more downfield chances to Howard. The Devils have given up 30 touchdown passes, and are missing their leader in the secondary, S Jordan Simone. With the defense selling out and respecting Smallwood, Howard will get multiple chances to find speedy WR Shelton Gibson streaking down the field on go-routes.

Player Who Matters

Norvell will be missed. How much depends on the play of senior QB Mike Bercovici.

This is an important game for the future of Bercovici, who has a next-level arm but is coming off a so-so final season. The Mountaineers will take chances, picking off 23 balls, including six from CB Daryl Worley. But that aggressive approach should also create opportunities for Bercovici to find Tim White and Devin Lucien deep. Lucien was a monster down the stretch, catching 17 balls for 390 yards and four scores over the final two games. The passing game will also be ably supported by the one-two punch on heavyweights Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard on the ground.

What’s Going To Happen?

Playing bowl games too close to home can sometimes be a drag. For Arizona State, it’ll be the impetus for a winning season.

The Sun Devils are motivated to close 2015 on the winning side of the ledger. With a chance to regroup and exhale, the talent is in place for this program to perform a little closer to its lofty preseason expectations. Bercovici is an upgrade over Howard, so ASU is more likely to deliver balance and diversity on offense. And the Devils’ hard-charging defense will create headaches for an opponent that relies so heavily on the talents of a single player.