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Week 4 College Football Predictions: 10 Biggest Games
Week 4 college football predictions for the 10 biggest games to close out September. A hot seat battle between two Tigers and a renewed Big Ten rivalry dot the landscape of this week's key games.
September 24, 2016
Week 4 college football predictions for the 10 biggest games. A hot seat battle between two Tigers and a renewed Big Ten rivalry dot the landscape of this week’s key games.
Below are breakdowns and predictions for the 10 most compelling and entertaining games of Week 4.
10. USC (1-2) at Utah (3-0)
Troy was served a standing eight count by Stanford last Saturday. Utah can issue the knockout punch to the Trojans and potentially unsteady coach Clay Helton.
USC is playing poorly for Helton, who has promoted redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Darnold to locate a spark. But this is a brutal spot for Darnold, who’ll make his starting debut at electric Rice-Eccles Stadium versus a nasty Ute defense that already has 15 sacks and six picks. Are there no child endangerment laws in the state of Utah? The kid will have to be inhuman to not be impacted by his surroundings on a frosty Friday night. If there’s hope for the Trojans, it’s that Utah is also misfiring offensively as it adjusts to the new backfield of JUCO transfer quarterback Troy Williams and true freshman running back Zack Moss.
Defense and special teams will rule the evening. Advantage Utah. Offensive efficiency will be scarce, and Darnold will wither in the face of pressure. The Utes will ride turnovers and the Sack Lake City crowd to a 4-0 start and an early lead in a tight Pac-12 South.
Prediction: Utah 27, USC 21
Line: Utah -3
9. Penn State (2-1) at Michigan (3-0)
Michigan faces its toughest test of the month, as Big Ten play kicks off at the Big House.
The Wolverines’ competition is gradually improving each week. But was last Saturday’s slow start versus Colorado a sign of resiliency or looming problems? Jim Harbaugh wants to dispatch a resounding statement at the expense of Penn State that the latter is not the case. His counterpart, James Franklin, can ill-afford a sloppy Big Ten opener as job security increasingly becomes a point of scrutiny. However, the Nittany Lions will have their hands full with the pressure of the Michigan defense and the playmakers in the receiving corps.
Harbaugh would love nothing more than to humiliate Penn State, or anyone for that matter, and he has the edge in personnel to execute the plan. The Wolverine front seven will harass quarterback Trace McSorley and running back Saquon Barkley, while Michigan hurler Wilton Speight tosses a touchdown pass to each of his three favorite targets in a lopsided victory.
Prediction: Michigan 41, Penn State 17
Line: Michigan -18.5
8. Clemson (3-0) at Georgia Tech (3-0)
A battle of ACC unbeatens take center stage on Thursday night in front of a national TV audience.
The Tigers and the Yellow Jackets meet on The Flats with something to prove. Clemson wants to show the country that it’s not 2015 Ohio State, an uber-talented squad unable to find the hunger, passion and execution. Tech wants to dispel the notion that its perfect start is merely the product of playing Boston College, Mercer and Vandy. It’s a short week for Clemson coordinator Brent Venables to ready for quarterback Justin Thomas and Tech’s triple-option. But if the Tigers are unable to sync up offensively, it could be an even bigger issue with Louisville heading to Death Valley a week from now.
The Yellow Jacket defense isn’t quite as tight as the numbers indicate through three games. And after sparring with the likes of Patrick Towles and Kyle Shurmur, Tech won’t be prepared for a motivated Deshaun Watson or his top weapons, wideout Mike Williams and running back Wayne Gallman.
Prediction: Clemson 35, Georgia Tech 23
Line: Clemson -9.5
7. Oklahoma State (2-1) at Baylor (3-0)
Turn over your cards, Baylor. America wants to see what’s in your hand and whether you’re a legit Big 12 contender this season.
The Bears’ record looks fine. It always does in September. But it’s hard to get a read on this program when it opens against Northwestern State, SMU and Rice. A visit from Oklahoma State will begin shedding light on how well Baylor has actually adjusted to the myriad offseason changes in personnel and coaches. In what shakes out as a likely track meet, the outcome could boil down to which pitch-and-catch combo is more prolific: Baylor’s Seth Russell to KD Cannon or Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph to James Washington.
The Bears will be cloaked in uncertainty until late Saturday night. However, they’ve got a better stable of complementary backs and the ability to pressure the pocket with linebacker Taylor Young and nickelback Travon Blanchard, who’ll be the differences in a seesaw battle with the Cowboys.
Prediction: Baylor 44, Oklahoma State 40
Line: Baylor -9.5
6. Georgia (3-0) at Ole Miss (1-2)
The SEC East starts getting answers in Week 4, as Florida and Tennessee square off and the Bulldogs travel to Oxford for the first time since 2011.
Georgia has the better record, but Ole Miss has been more impressive, assaulting Florida State and Alabama before fading to both. A third loss in four games would be devastating to the psyche of a Rebel team that began 2016 with high hopes. Meanwhile, the Dawgs have been stuck in neutral since beating North Carolina in Week 1, narrowly escaping FCS Nicholls State and a middling Mizzou team. No unit better encapsulates Georgia’s recent issues than an offensive line that’ll have its hands full with Ole Miss linemen Marquis Haynes and D.J. Jones.
Both teams boast topflight weapons, namely Georgia running back Nick Chubb and Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly. However, Chubb will continue absorbing contact near the line. Meanwhile, Kelly will out-duel rookie Jacob Eason, with help from wide receiver Damore’ea Stringfellow, tight end Evan Engram and a lackluster Dawg pass rush with one sack in two games against FBS opponents.
Prediction: Ole Miss 35, Georgia 27
Line: Ole Miss -7
5. LSU (2-1) at Auburn (1-2)
It’s the annual battle of the SEC West’s Tigers. And a game of particular interest for those keen on monitoring the careers of hot seat coaches.
This rivalry always matters. This fall, it’s of particular importance to the vulnerable coaches, LSU’s Les Miles and Auburn’s Gus Malzahn. Miles lost the opener to Wisconsin, and Malzahn has now dropped seven straight home games versus Power Five visitors. Both schools have question marks behind center and defenses that have been stout in September. What Auburn lacks is a back the caliber of Leonard Fournette, as many defensive stars as LSU … and momentum.
LSU will continue building a mini-head of steam behind another 100-yard day from Fournette and a dominant defensive performance from the likes of linebackers Arden Key and Kendell Beckwith, safety Jamal Adams and cornerback Tre’Davious White. Auburn is primed to begin circling the drain, and home field on The Plains isn’t what it used to be.
Prediction: LSU 27, Auburn 17
Line: LSU -3.5
4. Stanford (2-0) at UCLA (2-1)
In Week 3, the Cardinal took care of one Los Angeles-based team, suffocating USC, 27-10. This Saturday, the defending Pac-12 champs turn their attention to UCLA, whom they’ve now defeated eight consecutive times.
Stanford is the Pac-12 frontrunner until proven otherwise. The Bruins want to use the Cardinal to make a statement following a ho-hum start that included an opening day loss at Texas A&M. They also need to unlock all of quarterback Josh Rosen’s potential. However, the sophomore is getting no help from his drop-happy receiving corps or a running game that was shut down by A&M and BYU. UCLA will be singularly focused on containing Christian McCaffrey, because quarterback Ryan Burns is largely a game manager at this stage.
UCLA looks ripe for getting exposed by a more physical Stanford team. True, Rosen will be the second best player at the Rose Bowl, but his potential is being dragged down by the supporting cast. And the Cardinal defense has a habit of making opponents seem small. While the Bruins will prevent McCaffrey from being a show-stopper, the inability to click offensively will result in a second September defeat.
Prediction: Stanford 28, UCLA 21
Line: Stanford -3.5
3. Arkansas (3-0) vs. Texas A&M (3-0)
Neither the Hogs nor the Aggies were supposed to be undefeated through the first three weeks of the season. They are, and the winner in Arlington will join LSU as Alabama’s biggest threat in the SEC West.
Arkansas and Texas A&M share a long history together, as well as back-to-back overtime games won by the Aggies the last two years. Each has a quality win in September to rise in the polls. In fact, the Ags have a pair, beating UCLA in the opener and Auburn on the road last Saturday. And their improving defense under John Chavis sets up an interesting matchup with the Razorbacks’ latest power back, Rawleigh Williams, and quarterback Austin Allen, who’s been on point the past two games.
There are a lot of similarities between these schools—spotty offenses, improving defenses and a mess of good linemen on both sides of the ball. And since the schools are so close in talent, why not have a third straight extra session game, with quarterback Trevor Knight sneaking in the game-winner to send A&M to 4-0?
Prediction: Texas A&M 30, Arkansas 26
Line: Texas A&M -6
2. Florida (3-0) at Tennessee (3-0)
The Gators and the Vols have played worse than their records. But they’re undefeated, ranked and are still hated rivals looking to get a leg up in the SEC East.
Florida has taken 11 in a row in the series, a microcosm of all that’s plagued Tennessee this century. And if the Volunteers can’t finally break through in Knoxville when Gator quarterback Luke Del Rio is out with a knee injury, it’ll haunt Butch Jones. However, Tennessee has its own problems, like Jalen Reeves-Maybin’s aching shoulder and not having access to Darrin Kirkland and star cornerback Cameron Sutton. True, the Vols have the better backfield duo, quarterback Joshua Dobbs and running back Jalen Hurd, but that Gator defense is nasty. And the Tennessee offensive line was beatable in uninspiring wins over Appalachian State, Virginia Tech and Ohio.
Tennessee just isn’t a very good team right now. Plus, the long losing streak to Florida is in its head, and will place unnecessary pressure on players and staff alike. It won’t be pretty and it will be close. In games of this ilk, take the team with the best unit, which is the Gator defense. Emergency quarterback Austin Appleby will struggle on the road, but middle linebacker Jarrad Davis, cornerback Jalen Tabor and safety Marcus Maye will pick up the slack with a dominant defensive effort.
Prediction: Florida 23, Tennessee 19
Line: Tennessee -6.5
1. Wisconsin (3-0) at Michigan State (2-0)
The Badgers and the Spartans have already pulled off huge surprises over LSU and Notre Dame, respectively. This week, they meet in East Lansing to see who’s ready to keep rolling toward Big Ten contention.
Michigan State caught many off guard last week in South Bend, including the Irish, which weren’t competitive until the final quarter. The Spartans ran with authority and controlled the line, a recipe for success under Mark Dantonio. The Badgers, conversely, are coming off their worst game of September, barely beating Georgia State in Madison. Plus, solving the salty MSU defense is now the responsibility of redshirt freshman quarterback Alex Hornibrook, who may not have Corey Clement in his rear view mirror.
The Spartans must get back up for a second straight week, which is never easy. Fortunately, they’re back home to face a Wisconsin team that can’t stretch the field offensively. Michigan State will force Hornibrook to win the game with his arm, while veteran quarterback Tyler O’Connor and the offense grind out just enough red-zone trips to grind out a second straight win over a ranked opponent.
Prediction: Michigan State 27, Wisconsin 20
Line: Michigan State -5.5
