Mississippi State (11-1) at Ole Miss (8-3) Nov. 29, 3:30, CBS 

Here’s The Deal: You’ll have to forgive the SEC higher-ups if they’ll have their cowbell’s in full clang. The conference’s hope is to get two teams into the playoff, and with Mississippi State currently fourth, it’ll take something big to get knocked out at 11-1 with the lone loss coming to No. 1 Alabama on the road. It might actually be better for the Bulldogs if they don’t get to play for the SEC championship – if they beat Ole Miss, they’re in, and there’s obvious risk in playing one more game. Of course, though, Dan Mullen and crew would be more than happy to take that chance, hoping to win the Egg while needing Auburn to win the Iron. 

What kind of shape is Ole Miss in? Beaten, battered and bruised, even after getting a week off against Presbyterian, there was nothing in the tank in the 30-0 loss to Arkansas to make it three losses in the last four. The team that was in the hunt for the national title a few weeks ago might have suffered a bad month, but with a win over Mississippi State, all of a sudden, the narrative of the season changes and there’s a shot at a ten-win season. More than anything else, it would be a great chance to screw up its hated rival and ruin its playoff dream. 

The Bulldogs have won four of the last five in the series, but this one counts far, far more than anything these two have played for in a long time. It could be the biggest Egg Bowl for Mississippi State since the beginning of the rivalry in 1902 – a 21-0 Ole Miss win.

Why Mississippi State Might Win: What’s been the biggest problem for Ole Miss over the last four games? What’s been the issue in the slide? The run defense has started to wear down, especially in key spots. After not allowing 200 rushing yards in any game all year, the Rebels got pushed around by LSU for 264 yards including a key late drive, and Auburn ran well with 248 yards and three scores. Arkansas was held in relative check, but the 159 yards got the job done with the Hog D holding the Rebel O in check. Mississippi State has been helped to under 200 rushing yards just twice all year – against Arkansas and Alabama – and it still managed a win over the Hogs and held its own against the Crimson Tide. Defensively, the big key might be the Bulldogs’ amazing ability to not break, leading the nation in red zone defense. Ole Miss is awful inside the 20, scoring just 72% of the time.

Why Ole Miss Might Win: All the pressure is squarely on Mississippi State. Of course Ole Miss wants and needs to win the rivalry game, and of course this game means more to the fans than merely a possible playoff spot, but the Rebels should be able to play loose. Even without Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss still has an efficient and effective passing game. If Bo Wallace is on, and he gets time to operate, he should be able to light up a Bulldog secondary that doesn’t allow too many big plays, but gives up lots of yards. 

More than anything else, the Rebels can’t make a slew of mistakes. Turnover margin doesn’t mean everything – the Rebels were +3 against LSU but lost with one big mistake late – but -1 against Auburn and -5 against Arkansas turned out to be a big, big deal. Mississippi State has lost the turnover battle in three of the last four games. 

Who To Watch Out For: No matter how it shakes out, the winning quarterback will earn a special place in the history of the rivalry, and the one who plays better will probably get the win. Wallace has had his ups and downs, and despite coming in with a sprained ankle, he should be due for a huge game after throwing for 235 yards and two interceptions in the Arkansas loss. He threw three picks in last year’s 17-10 loss, but it’s not like Dak Prescott came up with a big game, either. However, he got the win, despite rushing for just 29 yards and throwing for 115, and now is his chance to put his stamp on the rivalry. His Heisman chances might have gone down in the Alabama loss, but he’s still coming up with an epic season with 891 rushing yards and 12 scores, while throwing for 23 touchdowns and hitting the 200-yard mark in every game except last week’s win over Vandy – but he hit 76% of his passes with three touchdowns. 

What’s Going To Happen: Ole Miss will play far, far better. Wallace will have a good, sharp game, and the Rebel run defense will swarm all over Prescott and RB Josh Robinson. The Bulldogs will have their chances late, but the Ole Miss D will come up with a gem after a rocky few games against Auburn and Arkansas. At home, Wallace will get the job done in a classic. 

Prediction: Ole Miss 27 … Mississippi State 24 
Line: Mississippi State -2 o/u: 49.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Birdman – 1: Horrible Bosses 2 … 5