Vanderbilt (3-7) at Mississippi State (9-1) Nov. 22, 7:30, SEC Network 

Here’s The Deal: All is not lost for Mississippi State. In fact, in defeat, the Bulldogs are actually in better shape than they could’ve hoped for with a No. 4 ranking, meaning all they should have to do is beat Vanderbilt impressively and get by Ole Miss, and they should be in the playoff. Had they beaten Alabama, they would’ve had to deal with an SEC championship game, and they still can with two wins and a Bama loss to Auburn. The team fought hard and won by losing close, 25-20, keeping its respect despite coming into the game a double-digit underdog. Style points won’t matter in the Egg Bowl, but they will this week against a Vanderbilt team that’s improving, but is by far the weakest team in the SEC. 

The Commodores came up with a win over Old Dominion two weeks ago, and they battled reasonably well in losses to Missouri and Florida, but the offense simply hasn’t been up to snuff in SEC play, scoring a total of 51 points in the five of the six SEC games, losing to South Carolina 48-34. Beating Mississippi State this week or Tennessee next week would make the season, hoping to go into the offseason with some momentum. But the Commodores will have to pitch a perfect game to pull this off. 

Despite the SEC ties, and being less than 300 miles apart, this is only the 22nd game between the two with the last game a 15-3 MSU win in 2009. Making this an even stranger series – which MSU leads 12-6-2 – is that it started in 1904. Vanderbilt won 61-0. 

Why Vanderbilt Might Win: Is Mississippi State beaten up? It was an emotional and physical battle with Alabama that played out like an SEC West championship game. Vanderbilt’s main hope has to be a lack of cowbell focus, but at the same time, it needs to get the passing game cranked up in a big way. Improved over the last few weeks after sputtering too much early on, Vandy went for 281 yards and five touchdowns against ODU and threw for 225 yards against Florida. The potential is there to hit a few big plays against the nation’s 119th-ranked pass defense – MSU will get beaten from time to time. 

Why Mississippi State Might Win: Get ready for the bludgeoning. Vanderbilt’s defense tries to rely on aggressiveness and hustle up front, but it’s about to get pounded on by a Miss State offense that can run and run some more. The Commodores couldn’t handle Florida’s power – allowing 214 yards and four scores – and have given up 199 yards or more four times in five games. Time of possession hasn’t meant too much for either team so far, but the Bulldogs should own the ball for at least 32 minutes, if not far more. 

Who To Watch Out For: Dak Prescott threw three interceptions against Alabama and it was treated like Mississippi State had given up playing college football. The one-time Heisman contender got the Bulldogs back in the game, finishing with 290 passing yards and two scores to go along with the three picks, and he ran for 82 yards. He didn’t pull out the win, and the interceptions mattered, but overall is was a solid performance against a jacked up defense geared to stop him. This week he should be right back on track, but a bit banged up, the coaching staff has to make sure he’s saved for Ole Miss. 

What’s Going To Happen: Vanderbilt will be plucky for a little while, but Mississippi State will grind and grind some more, wearing the Commodore D down in the second half. Prescott and RB Josh Robinson will help the Bulldogs to crank up close to 250 rushing yards. 

Prediction: Mississippi State 45 … Vanderbilt 13 
Line: Mississippi State -30.5 o/u: 52 
Must Watch Factor: 5: HBO’s State of Play – 1: Euros of Hollywood … 2