Ole Miss (8-2) at Arkansas (5-5) Nov. 22, 3:30, CBS 

Here’s The Deal: You knew it was coming. Arkansas might have gone the entire Bret Bielema era without an SEC win, but it was knocking on the door and battled hard in a 14-13 loss to Alabama and close losses to Georgia, Mississippi State and Texas A&M. All four of those were by a touchdown or less, and while close games are part of life in the SEC, the Hogs could very easily have seven or eight wins. Finally, everything came together in a terrific performance against LSU, winning 17-0 last week with a great job done by the defense and just enough from the offense get its head coach a conference win. Now it’s time to play the role of spoiler, while also hoping to get the sixth win needed to go bowling. Ole Miss this week and Missouri on Friday are both chances to ruin respective SEC title dreams, and the Hogs are just strong enough to do it. 

It’s been a bit of a rough run for Ole Miss, losing two devastating heartbreakers to LSU and Auburn to get knocked out of the playoff chase … maybe. Blowing away Presbyterian helped right the ship, and now there’s a shot to slip into the mix with two wins and some help. Beat Arkansas, beat Mississippi State, get an Auburn win over Alabama, and take the West and go play in the SEC championship. Win that, and yeah, the Rebels, as SEC champs, would be 99.9999% certain to get into the playoff. 

Why Ole Miss Might Win: Arkansas found a way to get by LSU, but the offense hasn’t been rocking and struggles to score points. It’s fine against the Northern Illinois and UABs of the world, but there’s not a whole bunch of scoring punch averaging just 20 points per game in conference play. The Ole Miss defense might have withered a bit late against the Tigers – both the LSU and Auburn versions – but it’s No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense and is freakishly good when it comes to takeaways and turnover margin. This is a rested, aggressive D that hasn’t really had to do too much over the last two weeks, and it should be ready to come out roaring. 

Why Arkansas Might Win: While the overall Ole Miss run defense has been solid this season, once it had to play teams with tough running games, bad things happened. Alabama didn’t go wild, but it ran for 168 yards and a score, and LSU and Auburn were each able to pound away, especially in crunch time. Arkansas was actually stuffed by the LSU run defense, and the offense didn’t explode, but the ground attack has been nasty all season long, only being stuffed by Alabama, as well as the Tigers, and is great at establishing control of games. Arkansas is outstanding at owning the time of possession battle – Ole Miss might only have the ball for about 25 minutes. 

Who To Watch Out For: Ole Miss might have the brand name defensive stars, but Arkansas has a linebacker deserving of all-star honors with a team-leading – by far – 97 tackles with a pick and 6.5 tackles for loss. He came up with nine tackles against UAB, which turned into the only time in the last six games he didn’t come up with double digit stops, making 15 against Mississippi State and ten against LSU. While he’s not all that big at 6-0 and 226 pounds, he can move. 

What’s Going To Happen: Arkansas will play with a renewed energy and more confidence after coming up with the win over LSU, but that was a dead tired Tiger team that didn’t have anything in the tank. Ole Miss is coming off a two-week break from the SEC and should be jacked up with a shot at the SEC West title still there. This is a really, REALLY good Ole Miss team that’s been forgotten about over the last few weeks. Welcome back. 

Prediction: Ole Miss 23 … Arkansas 16 
Line: Ole Miss -3 o/u: Arkansas 45.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: HBO’s State of Play – 1: Euros of Hollywood … 4