Air Force (8-2) at San Diego State (5-5) Nov. 22, 9:30, CBS Sports Network 

Here’s The Deal: While there’s plenty of traffic for Air Force to get through to win the Mountain division, it’s possible, while San Diego State is right there in the mix for the West, currently tied with Nevada and Fresno State on top of the division. It’s been a bit of a rocky run for the Aztec offense – at least the passing game – relying on Donnel Pumphrey and the ground game to carry the team. Even so, there were a nice roll of three wins in four games, but last week’s loss at Boise State was a problem. It’ll take a home win over Air Force and/or San Jose State to get a bowl bid, and with a strong run defense, the line is in place to handle the Falcon running game. 

Air Force has won four straight including a huge win overtime win over Nevada, but the big games are now with a road trip to San Diego State before finishing up with Colorado State. With a huge win over Boise State earlier in the year, if the Broncos lose once more, and if Utah State loses at some point, the Falcons have a shot. The run defense has been fantastic, allowing just 140 yards per game, with a terrific mix on defense to hold down the one-dimensional Aztecs. 

What’s Going To Happen: Get ready for all defense and all running game. The Air Force D is playing at a slightly higher level, and while San Diego State has been great against the run, the Falcon offense is working too well. 

Prediction: Air Force 27 … San Diego State 23 

Line: San Diego State -5.5 o/u: 50.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: HBO’s State of Play – 1: Euros of Hollywood … 2.5 

San Jose State (3-7) at Utah State (8-3) Nov. 22, 9:30, ESPN2 

Here’s The Deal: Utah State needs Colorado State to lose at some point, but if it beat San Jose State this week and comes up big at Boise State to close things out, it’ll at least win a piece of the Mountain division. At worse, by winning out, the Aggies can make the claim to being the second-best team in the league, even if they don’t play for the conference championship, doing a great job against the league’s mediocre over the last four weeks with the defense clamping down – especially against the run – and getting a huge save from fourth-string freshman QB Kent Myers. Already assured of a decent bowl bid, a win keeps alive a shot at a ten-win regular season, and a whole bunch more. 

San Jose State is playing out the string, losing four straight including the indignity of being shut out by Hawaii in the home finale. Now it’s spoiler time, going on the road to face Utah State and San Diego State, looking to screw up both teams’ chances at sneaking into a Mountain West title game. The Spartans are struggling offensively, but the defense has been solid. However, with a weak running game, it’s going to be all on a passing game that puts up yards, but struggles to score. 

What’s Going To Happen: Is the Utah State linebacking corps healthy? Nick Vigil has a hamstring problem and Torrey Green has an ankle issue, but it shouldn’t matter. The Aggie defense will clamp down on the Spartan ground game and will come up with at least two key turnovers to keep control of the game throughout. 

Prediction: Utah State 28 … San Jose State 16 
Line: Utah State -9.5 o/u: 46 
Must Watch Factor: 5: HBO’s State of Play – 1: Euros of Hollywood … 2 

New Mexico (3-7) at Colorado State (9-1) Nov. 22, 1:30, MW 

Here’s The Deal: It’s the best vs. the worst, with Mountain leader Colorado State trying to keep on winning while hoping for a Boise State loss, while New Mexico is looking to come up with anything positive. The Lobos are in the Mountain’s basement – okay, so the win over UNLV means New Mexico isn’t technically the Mountain West’s worst team – but the defense has been a total disaster. It held up well against a Utah State team trying to navigate the waters with a fourth-string quarterback, but the run defense is among the worst in America and there aren’t any third down stops. 

Colorado State might be the Mountain West’s top team, but it’s not going to play in the conference title game unless Boise State loses at some point. The Rams are red hot winning nine straight since the loss to the Broncos, showing they can bomb away when needed and running extremely well. Can they stop the run? The D is a little porous, but the O should be able to take care of business against the disastrous Lobo run defense. 

What’s Going To Happen: Colorado State quarterback Garrett Grayson should be fine after suffering a shoulder injury, and star receiver Rashard Higgins is expected to play with his shoulder problem, but it’ll be all about the Ram running game that’ll go wild. 

Prediction: Colorado State 45 … New Mexico 27 
Line: Colorado State -21.5 o/u: 67 
Must Watch Factor: 5: HBO’s State of Play – 1: Euros of Hollywood … 2 

Boise State (8-2) at Wyoming (4-6) Nov. 22, 10:15, ESPN2 

Here’s The Deal: Colorado State and Utah State just won’t go away. The Rams might have the best overall record in the Mountain, and the Aggies are red hot, but this is still Boise State’s division for the taking by winning out. First, they have to get by Wyoming, and then comes the showdown against Utah State that’ll play a big role in the Mountain West title chase in one way or another. The defense has gone bye-bye – who gives up 49 points to New Mexico? – but the offense has been unstoppable, scoring 37 points or more in each of the last five games and cranking up the offense with a superior passing game. 

On the other side, Wyoming’s defense has been a disaster when it comes to stopping the more efficient passing game, and while the offense had its moments in a win over Fresno State and a 45-31 loss to Colorado State, the firepower just isn’t there to keep up. Even so, with a win this week, next week’s game against New Mexico would be for bowl eligibility. 

What’s Going To Happen: Wyoming’s secondary isn’t stopping anyone’s passing game, ranking 114th in the nation in pass efficiency defense and is having a nightmare of a time coming up with third down stops. Boise State’s offense isn’t going to slow down. 

Prediction: Boise State 41 … Wyoming 30 
Line: Boise State -13 o/u: 56.5
Must Watch Factor: 5: HBO’s State of Play – 1: Euros of Hollywood … 2.5 

Fresno State (4-6) at Nevada (6-4) Nov. 22, 10:30, ESPNU 

Here’s The Deal: Nevada might be 6-4 and Fresno State 4-6, but the winner of this game takes full control of the West division. Each team beat San Diego State, and while the winner doesn’t take the division unless the Aztecs lose to Air Force, it’ll be a huge victory for whichever one takes it. Nevada could’ve been in a much better position, but it lost to Air Force in an overtime shootout. With UNLV to close things out, outside of the in-state rivalry aspect, the Wolf Pack should win the West with a victory over the Bulldogs. 

Fresno State has been a total clunker at times after winning the Mountain West title last year, but the win over San Jose State kept the hopes of repeating alive. The passing game has been night-and-day worse than it was in the Derek Carr era, band while the running game has been solid, the defensive issues have been too much to overcome. For all the problems and all the disappointments, if the Bulldogs win this week and beat Hawaii, they’re back in the Mountain West title game. 

What’s Going To Happen: Fresno State needs quarterback Brian Burrell to bomb away to keep up the pace, and while he’ll be fine, he won’t be enough. Nevada’s offense will run at will, with an efficient passing day from Cody Fajardo to balance out the rushing attack that should come up with over 250 yards. 

Prediction: Nevada 44 … Fresno State 27 
Line: Nevada -7.5 o/u: 61
Must Watch Factor: 5: HBO’s State of Play – 1: Euros of Hollywood … 3 

UNLV (2-9) at Hawaii (3-8) Nov. 22, 11;00, MW 

Here’s The Deal: Break up the Rainbow Warriors. While Hawaii might be 3-8, the defense came up with a gem on the road to beat San Jose State 13-0, and now there’s a chance to close out the season on a relative high note. It’s been a rough run under Norm Chow, but at home there’s enough potential to shut down a UNLV team that’s on a four game losing streak and lost seven of its last eight games. Neither team has had a whole bunch of luck, but a two-game winning run for Hawaii would be a desperately needed positive. 

The Rebels just haven’t been able to get the season going thanks to a defense that’s one of the worst in America in just about every key area, especially against the run. Can Hawaii take advantage with more of a power running game? Neither team can throw efficiently, and neither one has been able to come up with an appreciable key stop until Hawaii’s win over San Jose State. 

What’s Going To Happen: Can UNLV quarterback Blake Decker be okay with a shoulder injury? With backup Nick Sherry leaving the team, and with a lack of offensive pop to begin with, the Rebels have to figure out how to put up points. Hawaii doesn’t run too much, but it can, and it will go on a two-game winning streak for the first time since the end of the 2012 season. 

Prediction: Hawaii 24 … UNLV 17 
Line: Hawaii -10.5 o/u: 55.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: HBO’s State of Play – 1: Euros of Hollywood … 1.5