LSU (7-3) at Arkansas (4-5) Nov. 15, 8:00, ESPN2 

Here’s The Deal: October 13th, 2012 vs. Kentucky. That’s the last time Arkansas won an SEC game, but that’s not really fair. The Hogs were going through a death march at the end of 2012, were rebuilding under a new coaching staff in 2013, and this year, they just so happen to be in the greatest division in the history of college football. While being 4-5 isn’t fun, and you are what your record is, but Arkansas lost to Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi State. All five teams are ranked, and four of the five – A&M not really included – among the elite of the college football elite. But the losses to Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi State were all by a touchdown or less, and it’s not like the team isn’t competitive. However, it’s going to take two wins in the last three games against LSU, Ole Miss and Missouri to get to a bowl. 

LSU has to pick itself up off the floor after a major heartbreak. The Tigers had Alabama dead, just needing one late defensive stop, but they lost in overtime and the harsh battle of a season continues on. Nothing is coming easy, needing to rally to beat Wisconsin, fighting back in the loss to Mississippi State, hanging on against Florida, and picking off Ole Miss late. If nothing else, it’s been fun, and in a year when the team has to deal with massive growing pains, it’s been a good season considering the competition. However, if they can’t get past the rested Hogs, they’re going to go into the Texas A&M road game needing to win to avoid a rough 7-5 record.

Why LSU Might Win: The run defense continues to be impressive. Mississippi State’s 302-yard rushing day seems like a long, long time ago, and there’s no shame in allowing 298 rushing yards to Auburn. The Tigers have been great up front over the last four games holding up against the Florida power game allowing just 123 yards, and shutting down Alabama giving up 106 yards. Despite playing the Gators, Alabama and Ole Miss, LSU has allowed one rushing touchdown in the last four games, mainly because the line is holding up well and the linebackers aren’t missing. Aggressive, LSU is camping out behind the line with 24 tackles for loss over the last four games. Arkansas can throw – more on that in a moment – but if it isn’t running effectively, it’s in huge trouble. 

Why Arkansas Might Win: The Arkansas run defense has also been fantastic. The 302 yards allowed to Auburn came in the opener, and the 207 yards and three touchdowns given up to Georgia was a bit of an aberration. Bret Bielema’s defense has given up just three rushing touchdowns in the other seven games, holding up really, really well against Alabama – allowing 66 yards – and giving up just 128 yards to Mississippi State. LSU is going to power away no matter what, and it’s showing a little bit of balance when needed, but the Hog defense is playing at a high level and is good enough to lead the way to wins. Can the offense get enough of a passing attack to take the heat off the ground game? Arkansas has thrown for 199 yards in each of the last six games, because …

Who To Watch Out For: It’s time to start giving Brandon Allen some credit. It’s been an easy narrative to say Arkansas can’t do anything when its great ground attack isn’t working, but Allen has been excellent – for the most part. He’s throwing for plenty of yards, and he has 15 touchdown passes on the year and just five picks, but he needs to be more accurate. More than just the big plays, he has to be great on third downs and has to hit 60% of his passes – he hasn’t gotten there in three of his last five games. Last year he completed 66% for 178 yards and two touchdowns with a pick in the close call over LSU, and he needs to be at least that strong this time around. 

What’s Going To Happen: Bielema keeps saying that Arkansas will win an SEC game when it’s ready. It’s ready, but LSU is still better and stronger, able to come up with a strong game defensively to go along with an attack that’ll be more balanced than normal. It’ll be yet another tough loss for the Hogs. 

Prediction: LSU 20 … Arkansas 17 
Line: Arkansas -1.5 o/u: 47.5
Must Watch Factor: 5: Foxcatcher – 1: The Comeback … 3