USC vs. Arizona State Prediction, Preview

USC vs. Arizona State prediction and game preview. Projecting who wins between the Trojans and Sun Devils.

When: Saturday, Oct. 1 – 8:30 p.m. ET
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
TV Broadcast: FOX

Surely Clay Helton did not expect his team to be staring down at a 1-3 record to open the 2016 season. After getting blown out by Alabama in Week 1, the Trojans responded by beating up on Utah State, 45-7. Since then, USC has dropped back-to-back games against Pac-12 rivals. The Trojans fell to Stanford, 27-10, a week before losing to Utah, 31-27.

Todd Graham’s Sun Devils are on the opposite end of the spectrum. They’ve won their first four games by an average of 12 points. Arizona State opened up by flying past Northern Arizona. It then won a shootout with Texas Tech before winning on the road at UTSA. Last weekend, the Sun Devils tacked on their first conference victory of the season by taking down Cal, 51-41.

This will be the 600th game the Trojans have played in the Coliseum. USC holds the advantage in the all-time series with Arizona State, 19-12, which doesn’t include the Trojans’ victory in 2005 that was vacated due to NCAA penalty. The Sun Devils have won three of the last five meetings after having lost the previous 10.

What To Know About USC

Helton decided to change course last week and started redshirt freshman Sam Darnold at quarterback over Max Browne. Darnold played well but didn’t exactly drop jaws. He completed 18-of-26 passes for 253 yards without a touchdown or an interception. Most importantly, Darnold found chemistry with JuJu Smith-Schuster, who had gotten off to a slow start with Browne under center. Smith-Schuster caught eight balls for 98 yards. USC also got a big contribution from running back Justin Davis, who rushed for 126 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.

What to Know About Arizona State

Running back Kalen Ballage absolutely went off against Texas Tech with seven rushing touchdowns in Week 2, but that seems to be an outlier. He’s been held to 84 rushing yard and one touchdown on 20 carries over the last two games. Manny Wilkins has been consistently effective for the Sun Devils, though. He rushed for 72 yards and three touchdowns while throwing for 290 yards and a touchdown in the win versus Cal. Wilkins’ ability to create with his legs allows him more time to find his targets down field because he has the ability to freeze defenders in their tracks with the threat of the run.

Advantages

Offense: Darnold might have been a step in the right direction, but Arizona State’s offense is clicking right now. Wilkins is doing it all, and he’s the reason why Graham’s team gets the nod.

Defense: Neither defensive unit is stout. Arizona State forced two fumbles and picked off two passes last weekend, but it’s still closer to the bottom of the barrel defensively in the FBS. USC gets the edge here because of its secondary. Adoree’ Jackson, Iman Marshall and Leon McCquay III make the difference.

Special Teams: This goes to the Trojans as well. Jackson returned a kick 100 yards for a touchdown last week. The guy is explosive and can change the momentum of a game with his return ability.

Coaching: This has to go to the Sun Devils. The jury is still out on Helton, and Graham has his team unbeaten at the moment.

Matchup To Watch

JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Arizona State secondary

He’s one of the most talented wide receivers in college football. After the slow start to the season, some second-guessed how good Smith-Schuster truly is. But maybe it wasn’t as much his fault as it was the lack of chemistry he had with Browne. The Sun Devils are below average on defense, so it’ll be a fun matchup to watch their defensive backs take turns at lining up across from Smith-Schuster. Arizona State should mix up its coverage looks and align different cornerbacks on the USC playmaker to make it as tough as possible for him to create separation. He might see some double teams over the middle and a lot of safety help over the top.

USC vs. Arizona State Betting Odds

Spread: USC -10
Over/Under: 64