UNC vs. NC State Prediction, Game Preview

UNC vs. NC State prediction and game preview. The Tar Heels look to bounce back from their close loss to Duke, while the Wolfpack look to break their five-game losing skid.

UNC vs. NC State Game Preview

When: Wednesday, Feb. 15 – 8 p.m. ET
Where: PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC
TV Broadcast: ACC Network

Roy Williams and the No. 10 Tar Heels (21-5, 9-3 ACC) are coming off of an emotional loss at Duke last Thursday night, so the Wolfpack will be getting a well-rested and salty Tar Heels squad in this one. Justin Jackson scored 21 points and Joel Berry II finished with 15 for the Tar Heels, who were just 8-of-15 from the free-throw line in the second half against the Blue Devils.

Meanwhile, Mark Gottfried and the Wolfpack (14-12, 3-10) have dropped five in a row since their upset win at Duke. This is a team that has fallen off of the ACC bubble, and its latest effort was an embarrassing 88-58 loss at Wake Forest on Saturday. The Wolfpack shot just 36 percent, including a 2-of-15 effort from behind the arc.

When these teams met in Chapel Hill in early January, the Tar Heels dismantled the Wolfpack, 107-56. UNC enjoyed its biggest scoring output in the series history. Jackson scored 21 points and the Tar Heels enjoyed a 20-0 first-half spurt. UNC beat the Wolfpack for the 20th time in 22 games in a contest that had been postponed because of snow and ice.

UNC Wins If …

… The Tar Heels jump out to a fast start. While this is a rivalry game in which the Tar Heels are the visiting team, they will be going up against a Wolfpack squad that is really reeling. If UNC can make some shots early and get some easy defensive stops, NC State players could easily have the “Here we go again” thoughts enter their minds.

Also, keep an eye on the status of starter Isaiah Hicks. It is unknown if the senior forward will be able to play, as he hasn’t been practicing in full since suffering a hamstring injury that kept him out of the Tar Heels’ loss at Duke. UNC missed Hicks against the Blue Devils, as it diminished its size advantage up front. Without Hicks, the Tar Heels were out-rebounded for only the third time this season. Kennedy Meeks needs help on the inside, as Hicks is the team’s second-leading rebounder (5.6 boards per game). He also is the team’s third-leading scorer (12.8 points per contest).

NC State Wins If …

… Star freshman guard Dennis Smith Jr. outplays every Tar Heel, and the team is able to focus on the task at hand instead of several rumors that the decision to fire Gottfried at the conclusion of the season has already been made. The ‘Pack also need a bounce back game from senior guard Terry Henderson, who made just one basket and no three-pointers in the blowout loss to the Demon Deacons.

The chances of victory for the Wolfpack will also increase if Hicks and guard Kenny Williams III are sidelined due to injuries. The sophomore Williams suffered a lower right extremity injury on Tuesday and is uncertain to play. His absence would not be as big of a loss for UNC as Hicks’ would be, but it would hurt UNC’s depth, and NC State needs all of the help it can get to knock off the Tar Heels.

Matchup To Watch

UNC’s long-range shooting vs. NC State’s perimeter defense

One of the banes of NC State’s existence through its rough season has been its perimeter defense, which has been severely lacking. The Tar Heels have the best offense in conference play, while NC State has the worst defense. Justin Jackson’s improved three-point shot could be on display with ease in this one.

Betting Odds

Spread: UNC -10
Over/Under: 171