Stadium’s NCAA Tournament Bracket Scouting (Feb. 17)

    Selection Sunday is exactly a month away, which means there's up to three weeks left of regular season action before the start of conference tournaments.

    February 17, 2019

    Selection Sunday is exactly a month away, which means there’s up to three weeks left of regular season action before the start of conference tournaments. Since last week’s edition of NCAA Tournament Bracket Scouting, we added six new teams that are “locks” to make the tournament.

    As a reminder, here’s how we’re defining each category.

    Lock = These teams could lose literally every single game from today until Selection Sunday and we think they’d still make the NCAA Tournament.

    Pencil them in = These teams will probably make the NCAA Tournament but we suggest you use pencil, not pen, when writing their names among the 2019 NCAA Tournament field – for now. If they keep winning, they’ll likely become locks soon.

    Work to do = Pretty simple definition. These teams need to add wins, both in terms of quantity and quality, to make the NCAA Tournament. The amount of “work to do” varies from school to school.

    Auto-bid or bust = This is also pretty self-explanatory. These teams better win their conference tournament if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.

    As the season progresses, teams can move between categories but decisions to put teams in the “lock” category are final. We believe they’re safe regardless of what happens between the decision and Selection Sunday.

     

    AAC

    Locks: Houston

    Pencil them in: Cincinnati

    Work to do: UCF, Temple

    Auto-bid or bust: Memphis, South Florida, Wichita State, Tulsa, UConn, SMU, East Carolina, Tulane

    The American Athletic Conference can either tie its season-low or season-high for number of NCAA Tournament bids. Since its formation prior to the 2013-14 season, the AAC has had two tournament teams twice (2015, 2017), three teams once (2018) and four teams twice (2014, 2016) and the first of those four-bid seasons came in Louisville’s lone season as a conference member.

    UCF, Temple and the winner of the AAC Tournament will decide whether the conference is on the low end or high end of its recent NCAA Tournament output.

     

    Cincinnati (21-4)

    No. 23 NET | 4-2 Quadrant 1, 2-1 Quadrant 2, 9-0 Quadrant 3, 6-1 Quadrant 4

    The Bearcats handled Wichita State Sunday to the tune of 72-62. It was the last remaining Quadrant 3 game on Cincinnati’s schedule, which means there’s not another game in the regular season that has the potential to be a “bad loss”.

    Cincinnati has two Quadrant 1 games left – at UCF and at home against Houston – which means the Bearcats could be four game above .500 in Quadrant 1 entering the AAC Tournament.

     

    UCF (19-5)

    No. 39 NET | 0-2 Quadrant 1, 6-2 Quadrant 2, 7-1 Quadrant 3, 6-0 Quadrant 4

    The Knights were the preseason favorite to win the American Athletic Conference, according to the conference’s coaches, and they’re two games back of Houston with remaining road games against the Cougars, Cincinnati and Temple. It appears a regular season conference title that seemed possible in the preseason is unlikely to materialize. The three road games listed above, plus a home date with Cincinnati, are UCF’s only remaining chances for its first Quadrant 1 win before the start of the AAC Tournament.

     

    Temple (19-7)

    No. 56 NET | 1-6 Quadrant 1, 5-0 Quadrant 2, 6-1 Quadrant 3, 7-0 Quadrant 4

    As Stadium College Basketball Insider Jeff Goodman wrote in last week’s Goody Bag, Temple Coach Fran Dunphy is widely respected and while he’s received a few gifts from opposing teams in his last season of coaching, the Owls making the NCAA Tournament would be the best gift of all. An overtime win Saturday at South Florida kept Temple’s perfect record in Quadrant 2 intact.

    Wins at Memphis (Temple’s last regular season Quadrant 1 game) and at home against Tulane (a Quadrant 4 game that is the Owls’ last chance to potentially suffer a bad loss) would go a long way in keeping Temple on the right side of the bubble.

    [RELATED: Stadium’s Latest NCAA Tournament Projections]

    ACC

    Locks: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina

    Pencil them in: Virginia Tech, Louisville, Florida State

    Work to do: Syracuse, NC State, Clemson

    Auto-bid or bust: Boston College, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh

    This is a season in which the ACC could have potentially made a run at the old Big East’s record of 11 NCAA Tournament bids in 2011, given the potential for a one-bid Pac-12 and the collapse of a few Big Ten teams.

    But nine is likely the maximum number of bids the conference will receive.

    There’s been a pretty clear delineation in the ACC standings between NCAA Tournament hopefuls and those teams whose only way of reaching the field of 68 is through winning the conference’s auto-bid.

    Clemson, which is 15-10 overall and 5-7 in the ACC, is the cut-off for at-large candidates before there’s a drop-off in the standings to Boston College, Miami (FL) and Notre Dame, which have three conference wins each after Saturday.

     

    Virginia Tech (20-5)

    No. 13 NET | 3-5 Quadrant 1, 5-0 Quadrant 2, 4-0 Quadrant 3, 8-0 Quadrant 4

    The Hokies’ last two weeks have been a microcosm of Virginia Tech’s season and its apparent ceiling. They lost to Louisville and Clemson two weeks ago, then had a 2-0 week with wins over Georgia Tech and Pitt last week. With the exception of a road loss at Penn State (which was still a Quadrant 1 game, for the record), Virginia Tech is good enough to win almost all of the games it’s supposed to win but it feels like it struggles punching up to win games against the ACC’s upper echelon.

    What does that get you? A No. 5 seed, according to Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections, which likely means a pretty finite ceiling in March with a potential matchup against a No. 4 seed in the second round, then a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16.

    Upcoming home games against Virginia and Duke provide the opportunity for Virginia Tech to prove that narrative wrong.

     

    Louisville (18-8)

    No. 16 NET | 4-7 Quadrant, 5-1 Quadrant 2, 5-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

    The Cardinals’ bungled final possession in regulation in an overtime loss at Florida State on February 9 was compounded by a historic collapse at home against Duke three days later. Louisville’s February nearly snowballed Saturday as it needed Jordan Nwora’s block in the final seconds to escape Clemson 56-55 at home after leading by seven with 17 seconds left.

    The Cardinals barely have time to catch their breath before playing at Syracuse Wednesday and hosting Virginia Saturday. This is almost certainly an NCAA Tournament team but maybe not a top-four seed like it was projected to be during the Bracket Preview Show.

     

    Florida State (20-5)

    No. 25 NET | 4-3 Quadrant 1, 5-2 Quadrant 2, 4-0 Quadrant 3, 7-0 Quadrant 4

    The Seminoles have won seven in a row in ACC play as they shot up the conference standings to sixth place following a 1-4 start. Their winning streak will be put to the test this week with road games at Clemson Tuesday and North Carolina Saturday – two of their three remaining Quadrant 1 opportunities.

     

    Syracuse (17-8)

    No. 50 NET | 2-4 Quadrant 1, 4-2 Quadrant 2, 7-2 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

    Since beating Duke in overtime in Cameron Indoor Stadium on January 14, Syracuse has done little to boost its NCAA Tournament resume. The Orange are 5-3 since then with their wins coming against Pittsburgh, Boston College and Miami (FL), which translates to two Quadrant 2 wins and three Quadrant 3 wins. They lost to projected tournament teams Virginia Tech, Florida State and NC State in that stretch.

    Five of Syracuse’s six remaining regular season games fall under Quadrant 1 so the Orange have lots of opportunities for quality wins.

     

    NC State (18-8)

    No. 31 NET | 1-7 Quadrant 1, 6-0 Quadrant 2, 2-1 Quadrant 3, 9-0 Quadrant 4

    The Wolfpack will be an interesting case study for how the selection committee views a team that has a lot of wins but almost none against top-flight competition. NC State lost 94-78 at Duke Saturday, which leaves a road game at Florida State as its only remaining Quadrant 1 game in the regular season.

    Could the Wolfpack crack the 20-win mark but still be sweating on Selection Sunday with a 1-8 record in Quadrant 1? They’re a No. 10 seed in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections.

     

    Clemson (15-10)

    No. 42 NET | 1-7 Quadrant 1, 3-3 Quadrant 2, 5-0 Quadrant 3, 6-0 Quadrant 4

    Clemson is in an even more precarious situation than NC State. Both schools have a 1-7 record in Quadrant 1 after Saturday but the Tigers have two more losses overall and three Quadrant 2 losses. They host Florida State Tuesday, then North Carolina in early March and they might need to win both to earn an at-large bid.

    Clemson was among the Last Four In in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections. An 0-2 week with losses at Miami (FL) and Louisville last week made its margin for error even smaller.

     

    Big 12

    Locks: Texas Tech, Kansas, Iowa State

    Pencil them in: Kansas State

    Work to do: Baylor, TCU, Texas, Oklahoma

    Auto-bid or bust: Oklahoma State, West Virginia

    The Big 12 regular season race is wide open, especially after Iowa State’s win at Kansas State Saturday. The predictive metrics site kenpom.com projects a four-way tie for first between Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas Tech, so it should be an exciting final three weeks in the Big 12.

     

    Kansas State (19-6)

    No. 26 NET | 6-4 Quadrant 1, 4-2 Quadrant 2, 6-0 Quadrant 3, 3-0 Quadrant 4

    Kansas State isn’t far from NCAA Tournament “lock” status in our eyes. Despite holding a half-game lead in the Big 12 after Saturday, the Wildcats could quickly trend in the wrong direction as Cartier Diarra’s hand injury was followed by Dean Wade suffering an apparent foot injury in a home loss to Iowa State.

    Wade has struggled with injuries the last two seasons and the team’s Big 12 title hopes hinge on his availability. Luckily for the Wildcats, their schedule this week is about as favorable as possible in the conference: at West Virginia Monday then home against Oklahoma State Saturday.

     

    Baylor (16-9)

    No. 32 NET | 3-6 Quadrant 1, 7-1 Quadrant 2, 1-0 Quadrant 3, 5-2 Quadrant 4

    Baylor is alone in fifth place in the Big 12 and if the Bears can stay in the top half of the conference standings, they should safely be in the NCAA Tournament field. Three losses in their last four games, including a 25-point road loss at Texas Tech Saturday, have knocked them from Big 12 title contention.

    Road games at Iowa State, Kansas State and Kansas give Baylor the chance to climb back to .500 in Quadrant 1 games or to finish the season with a relative lack of good wins compared to the number of opportunities they had for them in the Big 12.

     

    TCU (17-8)

    No. 34 NET | 1-6 Quadrant 1, 5-2 Quadrant 2, 7-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

    The Horned Frogs had a rough week, losing to Kansas in overtime Monday, then to Oklahoma by nine Saturday. We learned last year that Big 12 teams can make the NCAA Tournament as at-large candidates with an 8-10 conference record so TCU, which is now 5-7 in conference play, needs to at least split its final six regular season games.

    The Horned Frogs play at Oklahoma State Monday, then host Iowa State Saturday.

     

    Texas (15-11)

    No. 35 NET | 4-6 Quadrant 1, 4-4 Quadrant 2, 4-1 Quadrant 3, 3-0 Quadrant 4

    Texas took care of business at home Saturday with a 69-57 win over Oklahoma State to improve to 7-6 in Big 12 play. Considering the record for most losses by an at-large team in the history of the NCAA Tournament is 15, the Longhorns need to go at least 2-3 in their final five games to keep their tournament hopes alive. Four of those games fall under Quadrant 1, including road games at Oklahoma and Baylor this week.

     

    Oklahoma (16-10)

    No. 41 NET | 4-8 Quadrant 1, 5-2 Quadrant 2, 7-0 Quadrant 3, 0-0 Quadrant 4

    Oklahoma’s overall record is one game better than Texas’ but the Sooners are in a worse position in regards to the NCAA Tournament because they’re 4-9 in Big 12 play. Oklahoma is projected to finish 6-12 in the conference, according to kenpom.com, which is nowhere good enough for an at-large bid.

    The Sooners likely need to win four of their final five games. They host Texas Saturday.

     

    Big East

    Locks: Marquette, Villanova

    Pencil them in: St. John’s

    Work to do: Seton Hall, Butler

    Auto-bid or bust: Georgetown, Xavier, DePaul, Creighton, Providence

    The Big East should send at least three teams to the NCAA Tournament after St. John’s’ win over Villanova Sunday. Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections have Marquette as a No. 3 seed, Villanova as a No. 6 and St. John’s as a No. 8. Keep a close eye on how Seton Hall and Butler finish the season as the conference tries to put half of its 10 teams into the tournament field.

     

    St. John’s (19-7)

    No. 49 NET | 5-4 Quadrant 1, 4-1 Quadrant 2, 2-2 Quadrant 3, 8-0 Quadrant 4

    St. John’s’ 71-65 win Sunday over No. 13 Villanova may have effectively sealed the Red Storm’s fate as an NCAA Tournament team. They’re now one game over .500 in Quadrant 1 with two wins over Marquette and a win over Villanova, plus one more Quadrant 1 game remaining in the regular season.

    The Johnnies were a No. 8 seed in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections so the key for them now is to continue adding wins to avoid the dreaded 8/9 game in the first round.

     

    Seton Hall (16-9)

    No. 61 NET | 3-6 Quadrant 1, 7-1 Quadrant 2, 3-2 Quadrant 3, 3-0 Quadrant 4

    The Pirates picked up their third-best win of the season Sunday at Creighton, which is another Quadrant 1 win along with Seton Hall’s victories over Kentucky and Maryland. Seton Hall was a No. 10 seed in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections and the Pirates probably need to finish at least .500 in Big East play to keep their at-large hopes alive.

     

    Butler (15-11)

    No. 54 NET | 1-6 Quadrant 1, 6-4 Quadrant 2, 5-1 Quadrant 3,

    The Bulldogs were second among the First Four Out in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections so they have their work cut out for them. Butler plays at Marquette Wednesday, then at Villanova the following week so it still has two major opportunities to impress the selection committee.

     

    Big Ten

    Locks: Michigan, Michigan State

    Pencil them in: Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa

    Work to do: Ohio State, Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska

    Auto-bid or bust: Illinois, Rutgers, Northwestern, Penn State

    There’s only six Big Ten teams we can confidently say will definitely make the NCAA Tournament. The slow rise of Illinois and Rutgers, combined with the collapses of Ohio State, Indiana and Nebraska, probably means the Big Ten’s best-case scenario is eight NCAA Tournament teams.

    The Big Ten may not get a No. 1 seed but the conference should have a lot of teams seeded in the No. 2 seed to No. 6 seed range.

     

    Purdue (18-7)

    No. 11 NET | 6-6 Quadrant 1, 6-1 Quadrant 2, 2-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

    The Boilermakers are in contention for the Big Ten regular season title with an 11-3 conference record that puts them one game behind Michigan and Michigan State. They have four remaining Quadrant 1 games, which are all on the road but against manageable opponents – Indiana, Nebraska, Minnesota and Northwestern. Purdue’s two remaining home games are against Ohio State and Illinois.

    Purdue’s remaining schedule keeps it in contention for both the Big Ten title and a No. 2 seed.

     

    Wisconsin (17-8)

    No. 15 NET | 7-6 Quadrant 1, 4-2 Quadrant 2, 2-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

    Similarly to Purdue, Wisconsin’s toughest portions of its Big Ten schedule are in the rear-view mirror. The Badgers finish with home games against Illinois, Penn State and Iowa, and road games against Northwestern, Indiana and Ohio State. Wisconsin will be favored to win all six, according to kenpom.com.

    The Badgers were a No. 5 seed in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections but they could reasonably improve upon that projection given their remaining schedule.

     

    Maryland (19-7)

    No. 21 NET | 5-5 Quadrant 1, 6-2 Quadrant 2, 2-0 Quadrant 3, 6-0 Quadrant 4

    Maryland lost 65-52 at Michigan, meaning the Terrapins were unable to beat any of the Big Ten’s top three teams on the road this season. However, that’s not the end of the world. They’re just one win away from 20 on the season, they still get to host Michigan and road games at Iowa and Penn State also provide Quadrant 1 opportunities.

    Maryland doesn’t have any more Quadrant 3 or Quadrant 4 games left on its schedule so it only has the chance to add quality wins but not bad losses until the Big Ten Tournament.

     

    Iowa (20-5)

    No. 28 NET | 5-5 Quadrant 1, 6-0 Quadrant 2, 3-0 Quadrant 3, 6-0 Quadrant 4

    Iowa is on a four-game winning streak because Joe Wieskamp banked in a corner three at the buzzer Saturday against Rutgers after catching a deflected full-court pass just six days after Iowa erased a 15-point deficit in the final four and a half minutes against Northwestern, capped off by Jordan Bohannon’s game-winning three-pointer at the buzzer.

    So what we’re saying is that if you’re an Iowa fan, live in Iowa or have ever taken a connecting flight through Iowa City, you should probably buy a lottery ticket immediately. Both of Iowa’s last two wins were Quadrant 2 games so they won’t appear on “Good Wins” graphics in March and a loss wouldn’t have been the end of the world for the Hawkeyes but the victories kept them undefeated outside of Quadrant 1 and four games above .500 in the Big Ten.

    Iowa has four remaining Quadrant 1 games, most notably a trip to Wisconsin and a home game against Maryland.

     

    Ohio State (16-9)

    No. 44 NET | 4-6 Quadrant 1, 3-2 Quadrant 2, 4-1 Quadrant 3, 5-0 Quadrant 4

    Ohio State’s NCAA Tournament hopes are once again uncertain. The Buckeyes weathered a five-game losing streak in Big Ten play and climbed back to .500 in the conference but back-to-back losses to Illinois and Michigan State could put them on a bubble trajectory. A home loss to the Fighting Illini is less than desirable and Ohio State let a potential road win at Michigan State slip through its grasp Sunday and shatter on the floor.

    The Buckeyes led by six at halftime and the game was tied 42-42 with just less than eight minutes remaining. Michigan State won 62-44 as Ohio State scored just 13 points after halftime and only two points in the final 7:39. The Buckeyes still have to travel to Maryland, Purdue and Northwestern, plus they host Iowa and Wisconsin. They need to go at least 3-3 in their final six games and they still might need a win or two in the Big Ten Tournament to guarantee an at-large bid.

     

    Minnesota (17-9)

    No. 58 NET | 3-7 Quadrant 1, 5-2 Quadrant 2, 3-0 Quadrant 3, 6-0 Quadrant 4

    A home game against Indiana had to have been a welcome sign for Minnesota after the Gophers lost four straight. The quality of their 17 wins still leaves some to be desired, outside of a road win at Wisconsin, but it might only take two more wins to make the NCAA Tournament.

    A home game against Michigan Thursday provides the chance for another marquee win for Minnesota, as does a home game against Purdue on March 5.

    The Gophers will likely be a double-digit seed if they make the NCAA Tournament but they’ll likely take any seed they can get after just one tournament appearance in Richard Pitino’s first five seasons.

     

    Indiana (13-12)

    No. 51 NET | 4-9 Quadrant 1, 2-3 Quadrant 2, 1-0 Quadrant 3, 6-0 Quadrant 4

    Indiana’s inclusion as a potential at-large team is a formality at this point. The Hoosiers own wins – really good wins, in fact – over Michigan State, Louisville and Marquette and they have the potential to enter the Big Ten Tournament with eight Quadrant 1 wins.

    However, they’re now just one game over .500 on the season after a 21-point loss at Minnesota. They’ve lost 10 of their last 11 games and absolutely nothing about their play in the last two months suggests they’re capable of earning an at-large bid, much less rattling off five wins in a row to earn the Big Ten’s auto-bid.

     

    Nebraska (15-11)

    No. 38 NET | 2-8 Quadrant 1, 6-3 Quadrant 2, 2-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

    Nebraska held serve at home last week, beating Minnesota and Northwestern for its first winning streak since January 14. A closing stretch against Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa will likely quickly and irreversibly end the Huskers’ at-large hopes, which have been dwindling since the start of the New Year.

     

    Pac-12

    Locks: None

    Pencil them in: None

    Work to do: Washington, Arizona State

    Auto-bid or bust: Oregon State, Utah, USC, Stanford, Oregon, Colorado, UCLA, Arizona, Washington State, California

    Welcome back to the shortest NCAA Tournament Bracket Scouting segment of any major conference. The highest projected seed for any Pac-12 team is a No. 8 seed, according to Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections, which means it could be a one-bid conference whose best team plays in a toss-up 8/9 first-round game.

     

    Washington (20-5)

    No. 30 NET | 1-4 Quadrant 1, 5-1 Quadrant 2, 6-0 Quadrant 3, 8-0 Quadrant 4

    The Huskies were only a No. 8 seed in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections (playing No. 9 seed Syracuse, which would be a really fun matchup given the history between Jim Boeheim and Mike Hopkins), which means they’re firmly in the “Work to do” category despite a three-game lead in the Pac-12.

    Washington won 72-70 at Washington State Saturday as it avoided what would’ve been its first Quadrant 3 loss of the season. That’s the unfortunate reality for Washington – it has way more opportunities for bad losses than good wins. It still has three more Quadrant 3 games and one more Quadrant 4 game in the regular season but not a single Quadrant 1 game left on its schedule.

     

    Arizona State (17-8)

    No. 75 NET | 4-1 Quadrant 1, 4-4 Quadrant 2, 3-1 Quadrant 3, 6-2 Quadrant 4

    Arizona State has a far better record in Quadrant 1 than Washington (1-4) but the Sun Devils have two Quadrant 4 losses and a Quadrant 3 defeat, plus a 4-4 Quadrant 2 record, that collectively devalue their resume.

    Arizona State was among the Last Four In in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections so it can ill-afford losses of any kind, let alone another Quadrant 3 or Quadrant 4 defeat. The Sun Devils host Stanford and California in their next two games, which are a Quadrant 3 and Quadrant 4 game, respectively.

     

    SEC

    Locks: Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU

    Pencil them in: None

    Work to do: Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Arkansas

    Auto-bid or bust: South Carolina, Missouri, Texas A&M, Georgia, Vanderbilt

    You could make the case the SEC will have the most exciting – and impactful – regular season conference championship race of any major conference. Tennessee and LSU share the conference lead with an 11-1 record after LSU’s buzzer-beating victory at Kentucky, where the Volunteers fell Saturday behind PJ Washington and the Wildcats’ dominant performance. Kentucky is just one game back.

    There’s a chance Tennessee and Kentucky could both earn No. 1 seeds but if only one SEC team can earn a top seed, the rematch between the two schools in Knoxville on March 2 could decide which school gets it.

     

    Mississippi State (18-7)

    No. 27 NET | 7-4 Quadrant 1, 4-3 Quadrant 2, 3-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

    The Bulldogs lost all three of their regular season games against Kentucky and LSU but they’re three games over .500 in Quadrant 1 after Saturday’s win at Arkansas. Plus, they’ll get a crack at Tennessee in March.

    If Mississippi State can win all three of its remaining Quadrant 3 home games, that should be enough to guarantee an at-large bid and a single-digit seed.

     

    Ole Miss (18-7)

    No. 33 NET | 4-7 Quadrant 1, 3-0 Quadrant 2, 5-0 Quadrant 3, 6-0 Quadrant 4

    Ole Miss should be pleased with how the final three weeks of its regular season schedule materialized. The Rebels are on the doorstep of a 20-win season and they have two huge home opportunities against Tennessee and Kentucky, some likely home wins against Missouri and Georgia, and winnable road games at South Carolina, Arkansas and Missouri.

    They could have a 10-win improvement from last season’s 12-20 campaign and an NCAA Tournament appearance is within reach.

     

    Auburn (17-8)

    No. 24 NET | 1-6 Quadrant 1, 6-2 Quadrant 2, 5-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

    The good new for Auburn is that it doesn’t have any more opportunities in the regular season to take a bad loss. There are no more Quadrant 3 or Quadrant 4 games left on the Tigers’ schedule.

    With just one Quadrant 1 win and Selection Sunday a month away, Auburn could really use a few more quality wins, which it’ll have the opportunity to earn at home against Tennessee and Mississippi State and on the road against Kentucky and Alabama. It should hope to split those four games.

    A worst-case scenario of an 0-4 performance in its remaining Quadrant 1 games would put Auburn on the bubble – or very close to it – with a 1-10 Quadrant 1 record.

     

    Alabama (15-10)

    No. 45 NET | 2-6 Quadrant 1, 6-2 Quadrant 2, 4-2 Quadrant 3, 3-0 Quadrant 4

    Last season, Alabama tied the NCAA Tournament record with 15 losses as an at-large team that made the tournament. At 15-10 and a challenging final two weeks of the regular season, the Crimson Tide are in danger of reaching a similar high-water mark in terms of losses.

    Alabama plays at Texas A&M Tuesday, then at home against Vanderbilt Saturday, so it could really use a 2-0 week before it plays South Carolina, LSU, Auburn and Arkansas in the last two weeks.

     

    Florida (14-11)

    No. 40 NET | 2-9 Quadrant 1, 3-1 Quadrant 2, 4-1 Quadrant 3, 5-0 Quadrant 4

    The Gators doubled their number of Quadrant 1 wins Saturday with a win at Alabama. It gave Florida its first winning streak since January 22 and the Gators are only one win away from tying their longest winning streak of the season.

    Florida’s 6-6 conference record isn’t as concerning for its at-large hopes as the Gators’ 14-11 overall record. They play at LSU Wednesday before hosting Missouri Saturday. Florida probably needs to win four of its final six games to even come close to sniffing an at-large bid.

     

    Arkansas (14-11)

    No. 66 NET | 1-6 Quadrant 1, 2-3 Quadrant 2, 7-2 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

    The Razorbacks were in the Next Four Out in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections and they’re trending closer to the “Auto-bid or bust” category by the game. Arkansas has lost three in a row, dropping to 5-7 in the SEC, with a road win at LSU as its only marquee win this season.

    It has the chance for another one when it plays at Auburn Wednesday.

    MORE: Kentucky Dominates No. 1 Tennessee, Gives Vols First Loss Since November

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