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SEC Championship Game: Alabama vs. Florida Prediction, Preview
SEC Championship Game: Alabama vs. Florida prediction and full game preview for the showdown between the Crimson Tide and the Gators
December 2, 2015
Can Florida (10-2) possibly pull it off? The Gators might be struggling down the stretch, but all that matters is one win – one shocking win – over Alabama (11-1) and the College Football Playoff world will be turned upside down. Check out the SEC Championship Game prediction and game preview.
SEC Championship Game Preview
Broadcast
Date: Saturday, December 5
Game Time: 4:00 pm
Venue: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA
Network: CBS
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Why You Need To Care
This marks the eighth time the Gators and Crimson Tide have met in the SEC title game, and this marks the 11th time a team ranked in the top two is playing in it.
And it also has the potential to be one of the most dominant blowouts in the Granddaddy of Conference Championships.
There have been plenty of ugly blastings over the years – including Alabama’s 32-13 win over Florida in 2009 that made Tebow cry – and there have been just two upset wins by teams ranked in the teens – 2005 No. 13 Georgia over LSU and 2001 No. 21 LSU over Tennessee. For the most part, the SEC championship usually goes to form with truly major shockers almost never occurring.
So does Florida have any shot whatsoever?
The Gators were never exactly pretty, but they were effective on the ground, they were tough defensively, and they found ways to come up with huge wins over Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Georgia to get through a weak SEC East. However, ever since starting quarterback Will Grier was suspended, the offense has sputtered and struggled, it took everything in the bag to hang on to beat Florida Atlantic, and the 27-2 loss to Florida State last week was galling in its offensive ineptitude.
And now Florida has to play an Alabama team with what might be the best front seven in the Nick Saban era.
This isn’t a completely unbeatable team, but it took a weird, mistake-filled shocker from Ole Miss, along with a few miraculous pass plays, to get the job done.
Tennessee and Arkansas provided a terrific push, and Auburn gave it a good run for a while last week, but it might be a stunner if this doesn’t turn into the Crimson Tide Invitational halfway through the first half.
The West has won the last six SEC titles and seven of the last eight, but the Gators can play with absolutely nothing to lose. After a few rocky campaigns, this has been a fun season for Florida as first year head coach Jim McElwain has started to turn things around.
But Alabama is Alabama, and this is the SEC title game.
Good luck.
Why Florida Will Win
Here’s the formula. It all starts with the defensive front that got gouged by Dalvin Cook last week against the Seminoles, but made up for it with a slew of big plays behind the line. Everyone has been stacking the box forcing Jake Coker to come up with big plays down the field, and for the most part he’s been successful. But it’s going to take a good day and a big effort from 2015 presumptive Heisman winner Derrick Henry to set the tone, and there’s a chance he’s just plain beaten up.
The big, bruising back might have sealed up the award last week against Auburn, but it took 46 carries to get it done. The O line was able to take a little break against Charleston Southern, but it’s been involved in physical game after physical game over the last month. Is Henry going to be fresh?
Will there be anything left in the tank on the offensive line? Against LSU, Auburn, and others, Alabama was able to generate a little breathing room by hammering away and wearing defenses down. Considering Henry has carried the ball 22 times or more in seven of the last eight games, this might be the game for the Gators defensive front that’s allowing 3.3 yards per carry.
Why Alabama Will Win
You can’t win if you can’t score, son.
The Florida offense wasn’t blowing anyone’s doors off, but over the last few weeks it’s become absolutely stagnant. No one cares a lick about the Gator downfield passing game, because there isn’t one. There also isn’t a midrange passing attack, and that means there’s no room whatsoever to run.
The Florida ground game is plodding, and it’s only been able to crank out more than four yards per carry once in the last ten games. Now it gets to go against the nation’s No. 1 run defense – Alabama hasn’t allowed a team to average more than 2.5 yards per carry in any of the last four games and just once in the last seven.
Worse yet, considering Florida’s kicking woes and inconsistencies, there’s little production even when the offense does get into range. In a game like this, the Gators are going to have to keep the chains moving, control the time of possession, score at every opportunity, and pull off a little bit of special teams magic. It’s also going to have to get a massive performance out of …
Player Who Matters
Treon Harris. Alright, son, it’s time to come up with something amazing.
A dangerous runner when he gets into the clear, he hasn’t been able to take off for much since taking over the job seven weeks ago. Even so, he has to be very, very careful when he tries to make things happen against a Crimson Tide D that’s been fantastic at getting behind the line. He’s had a few nice moments here and there, and he’s only thrown four interceptions, but now it’s on him to keep this relatively close.
Every first down will be a big deal, and every positive play will mean something. For all of Florida’s faults, it’s great at grinding down the clock, holding the ball for 33 minutes a game. Harris has to be effective enough to keep things moving and blow off the negative plays – there will be plenty.
What’s Going To Happen?
Florida will do a decent job of slowing the roll on Henry’s Heisman run, but the offense isn’t going to be able to move a lick. There will be a moment in the first quarter when the Gators score and there’s a thought of something special happening, but that will go away quickly. This won’t be pretty in any way, but it’ll be effective as the Tide rolls on.
SEC Championship Game Prediction
Final Score: Alabama 31, Florida 10, Line: Alabama -17.5, o/u: 40
Must See Rating: 5: The Big Short – 1: CMA Country Christmas … 4
