Who: Auburn (7-5) vs. Purdue (6-6)

What: Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

When: 1:30 p.m. ET, Friday, December 28

Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee

Spread: Auburn -3.5

How to watch: ESPN, WatchESPN

The Music City Bowl is compelling despite the records of the two teams competing. Purdue was responsible for arguably the most surprising and impactful upset of the season when the Boilermakers throttled then-No. 2 Ohio State 49-20 in October. They also beat No. 23 Boston College and No. 16 Iowa.

After starting the season ranked No. 9 in the AP poll and beating a top-10 Washington team on a neutral field in Week 1, Auburn never won more than two games in a row all season. The Tigers finished fifth in the SEC West and a pair of close losses at home to LSU (22-21) and Tennessee (30-24) prevented them from ever realizing the potential suggested by their preseason ranking.

But the season-long inconsistencies of Auburn and Purdue mean college football fans get to watch a great matchup between the Boilermakers’ 16th-ranked offense, according to Football Outsiders’ S&P+ rankings, and the Tigers’ 18th-ranked defense.

Purdue recruited a gem in freshman wide receiver/returner extraordinaire Rondale Moore, who was a consensus All-American as a freshman and won the Paul Hornung Award that’s given to the nation’s most versatile player. The 5-9 speedster enters the Music City Bowl with 103 receptions, 1,164 receiving yards and 12 receiving touchdowns, along with 203 rushing yards and a touchdown on 18 carries.

Moore had five games with at least 10 receptions and seven games with at least 100 receiving yards, including his 12-catch, 170-yard, two-touchdown performance against Ohio State.

Senior quarterback David Blough will play the final game of his career, capping off a season in which he has completed two-thirds of his attempts for 3,521 passing yards and 25 touchdowns to only eight interceptions.

On the other side of the ball, Auburn is strong at limiting opponents’ third and fourth down conversions. The Tigers hold opponents to a 34.4 percent conversion rate on third down (27th nationally) and a 38.8 percent success rate on fourth down (15th). They’re even better in the red zone, where opponents score a touchdown just 32.3 percent of the time.

However, Auburn might have to play without defensive lineman Nick Coe, the team’s best pass-rusher who has 13.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks this season, after he underwent surgery on his wrist. He’s listed as doubtful.

Like opposing offenses, Auburn’s offense can also be prone to not scoring in the red zone. The Tigers are just 15-of-26 (57.7%) on field goal attempts this season. But quarterback Jarrett Stidham could have success against the Boilermakers’ defense, which allows 276 passing yards per game and roughly 16 plays per game that result in a gain of at least 10 yards.

It’s not wise to make conference-wide judgments based off of one bowl game but surely some fans of the winning team (and maybe of other teams in the winning team’s conference) will argue that the outcome of the Music City Bowl shows the strength and depth of the Big Ten or SEC, depending on who wins.

Will Purdue defeat an SEC West school to earn its second consecutive bowl win, showing the coaching prowess of Coach Jeff Brohm and the possible rise of the Boilermakers, or will Auburn bottle up Purdue’s explosive offense, allowing SEC fans to declare superiority over their Big Ten brethren?

On a day that also features West Virginia-Syracuse in the Camping World Bowl and Washington State-Iowa State in the Alamo Bowl, and on a weekend that is highlighted by the College Football Playoff Semifinals on Saturday, Auburn-Purdue is a strong appetizer.

 

Here’s a look at some of the statistical strengths and players to watch for both teams.

Auburn

Offense

Rushing yards per game: 164 (69th)

Defense

Points allowed per game: 19.6 (18th)

Rushing yards allowed per game: 140 (40th)

Turnover margin: +7 (22nd)

Opponent third down conversion percentage: 34.4% (27th)

Opponent fourth down conversion percentage: 38.8% (15th)

Opponent touchdown percentage in the red zone: 32.3% (2nd)

Players to watch

QB Jarrett Stidham – 2,421 passing yards, 60.1%, 13 TD, 5 INT

RB JaTarvious Whitlow – 777 rushing yards, 5.4 avg., 4 TD

WR Ryan Davis – 64 receptions, 523 receiving yards

LB Deshaun Davis – 107 total tackles, 14.0 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 4 QBH

DB Noah Igbinoghene – 45 total tackles, 11 PBU

Purdue

Offense

Points per game: 31.9 (43rd)

Passing yards per game: 317 (9th)

Fourth down conversion percentage: 56.2% (51st)

Red zone conversion percentage: 91.6% (8th)

Plays from scrimmage of at least 10 yards: 192 (37th)

Defense

Opponent third down conversion percentage: 35.2% (34th)

Opponent touchdown percentage in the red zone: 54% (31st)

Players to watch

QB David Blough – 3,521 passing yards, 66.6%, 25 TD, 8 INT

RB D.J. Knox – 868 rushing yards, 5.8 avg., 8 TD

WR Rondale Moore – 103 receptions, 1,164 receiving yards, 12 TD

LB Markus Bailey – 104 total tackles, 8.0 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks

CB Antonio Blackmon – 62 total tackles, 11 passes deflected, 9 break-ups, 2 INT