Penn State vs. Georgia Prediction, TaxSlayer Bowl Game Preview

Penn State (7-5) is trying to finish up an inconsistent season on a high note with the possibility of better things coming up. James Franklin has recruited well, and the team should be better down the road, but a win over Georgia (9-3) would reverse a rough stretch. The Bulldogs are playing a true exhibition before the Kirby Smart era begins, but a win would make a ten-win season look very, very good in hindsight. Check out the Penn State vs. Georgia prediction and TaxSlayer Bowl game preview.

Penn State vs. Georgia Game Preview

Broadcast

Date: Saturday, January 2

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET
Network: ESPN
Venue: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Follow and/or Contact @PeteFiutak

Why You Need To Care

The new era is on its way for Georgia. Mark Richt is off to Miami, Kirby Smart is coming as soon as Alabama is done having its fun, and the program is about to change attitude and direction. In the meantime, it’s Bryan McClendon taking over to show what he can do as he tries to keep the Dawgs hot to finish up.

It wasn’t the year Georgia fans were hoping for, mainly because the nine wins just weren’t all that great and the three losses were to the teams the Dawgs needed to beat. Getting by Georgia Tech is always good, and beating Auburn was nice, but Georgia’s offense fell flat in losses to Alabama and Florida, and losing to Tennessee turned out to be a key misfire in the SEC East season.

The defense was outstanding, and the offense was okay at times, but it couldn’t find a passing groove and it wasn’t the same without star running back Nick Chubb. After all the problems, though, a win would make it three bowl wins over the last four years and a fourth ten-win season in five years.

Penn State is still just happy to be bowling after almost being bulldozed to the ground two years ago. If the Pinstripe win over Boston College to close out last year was a key moment in the rebuilding project, beating Georgia – even one without a head coach – would be a statement for a team that didn’t beat anyone with a pulse.

James Franklin is still trying to reboot things with his good recruiting class coming in to keep the process going, but after starting out the season with a loss to Temple, and with a three-game losing streak to finish things off, it’s been a rocky run. The best win came against Mountain West champ San Diego State, and No. 2 was against Indiana. With no real offensive punch, Penn State hasn’t been an easy watch, but this is the game to try turning it loose – if that’s possible.

Tenth in the nation in pass defense, the Nittany Lions use their great pass rush to press more in the defensive backfield with almost nothing happening down the field. Georgia can be efficient at times throwing the ball, but it’s hardly dangerous. The Dawgs have to rely on their defense to survive, but if this gets into a slugfest with opportunities turning into a big deal, Penn State is great in the red zone, Georgia isn’t.

Why Penn State Will Win

With time to rest up and prepare, the Penn State run defense should be a brick wall. Helped by 44 sacks, the overall numbers are outstanding allowing fewer than four yards per carry and only getting run over a few times. Ohio State, Maryland, Army and Northwestern are the only four teams to gouge the Nittany Lion defense, and that’s mostly because the first three teams had running quarterbacks. That’s not a concern with a Georgia team that’s not consistent enough through the air and has to rely on RB Sony Michel to get the offense moving.

Georgia’s big offensive problem is its inability to move keep the chains moving on third downs, converting just 31% of its chances. Michigan and Michigan State didn’t have a problem, but when Penn State held teams to under 40% on third downs it’s 6-1 with Northwestern the lone exception. Georgia has been above 40% just twice all year, and once was in the opener against ULM.

Why Georgia Will Win

Even with a supposed NFL quarterback in Christian Hackenberg, Penn State’s passing game isn’t close to what it should be. It’s getting better – it had a strong second half of the season – but it didn’t go anywhere against Michigan’s secondary it’s been all over the map in terms of consistency.

Georgia has allowed just nine touchdown passes on the year with three of those coming in the first two games and three more against Tennessee. That means that outside of the loss to the Vols, the Dawgs have allowed just three touchdown passes in their last ten games. No. 1 in the nation in pass defense, the Georgia secondary should roll thanks to a pass rush that won’t have any problems against the porous Penn State O line.

The Georgia run defense isn’t nearly as strong, but that’s not a problem against a Penn State ground game that hasn’t gone over the 200-yard mark in the last nine games and averages just 4.1 yards per pop. This should be a defensive fight, and the Dawgs will more than hold their own. Score early, and the D will take care of the rest.

Players Who Matter

Penn State’s Carl Nassib took home the Lombardi, Ted Hendricks (best DE) and Lott (outstanding defensive player), and now it’s his last game and last time to show what he can do. A likely second round pick, he has the size, the motor, and the closing ability to find his way behind the line with 46 tackles on the year with 15.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss.

The quick first step is there, but he mostly makes plays be always moving. With fellow future NFL defensive end Anthony Zettel on the other side, Nassib should be able to do some damage against a good Georgia O line that’s only allowed 13 sacks on the year.

Jacob Eason isn’t at Georgia yet. The five-star super-recruit wavered after Mark Richt left, but he still ended up committing after Kirby Smart took over. Faton Bauta knew where he stood and left for Colorado State, but Greyson Lambert is still around and has one final shot to show that he might still be an option if the new coaching staff doesn’t want to go with a true freshman.

Lambert was one of the hottest quarterbacks in the country early on, highlighted by a two-game stretch completing 33-of-35 passes against South Carolina and Southern. But Alabama and Tennessee didn’t do well, and the midseason was rough before closing out hot. When given time he’s deadly accurate on his short passes, and that’s all that matters against Penn State. Take what’s there and keep things moving. He can do that.

What’s Going To Happen?

Georgia is the better team with the stronger defense and better offensive talent, but the Nittany Lion D will rise up just enough to get by. The coaching turmoil will matter – this won’t be quite the same Georgia team, and even with the old regime the offense couldn’t move the ball. Don’t expect anything pretty from either side.