Pac-12 Championship Game: USC vs. Stanford Prediction, Preview

The Stanford Cardinal (10-2) and USC Trojans (8-4) meet for the second time in 2015, this time for a Pac-12 title and a Rose Bowl berth. Check out the Pac-12 Championship Game prediction and game preview below.

Pac-12 Championship Game Preview

Broadcast

Date: Saturday, December 5
Game Time: 7:45 ET
Venue: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, Cal.)
Network: ESPN

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Why You Need To Care

Stanford and USC have already met once this season. But it was so long ago that the Trojans have since fired their head coach and already hired his permanent successor.

Both the Cardinal and the Trojans have ridden strange, twisty journeys since their Sept. 19 meeting in the Coliseum, won by Stanford, 41-31. Troy fired Steve Sarkisian on Oct. 12 for off-field behavior, the second time in the last three seasons it ousted a head coach in-season. Offensive coordinator Clay Helton took the reins on an interim basis, not only salvaging the once-promising campaign with five wins in seven games, but also leading the Trojans to the South Division crown with Saturday’s rout of rival UCLA. And for keeping the train on the tracks, Helton had the interim tag pulled from his title on Monday, removing a whole lot of uncertainty prior to the title game.

The Cardinal was almost on life support before the season ever got out of the blocks, playing miserably in a 16-6 opening day loss to Northwestern. But David Shaw rallied his team one step at a time, winning eight in a row to move all the way up to the top 10. However, hopes for playoff run, both for itself and its league, all but faded following a Nov. 14 loss to arch-nemesis Oregon. Still, Stanford is positioned to win a third league championship over the past four seasons, while keeping the North Division undefeated since the advent of a conference title game in 2011.

Why Stanford Will Win

The Cardinal was sharp and precise the first time these schools met. Just because time has passed doesn’t mean the sequel will be any different.

Stanford sketched a perfect gameplan for USC in September, mixing the running of Christian McCaffrey and Remound Wright with the accurate passing of Kevin Hogan to control the clock for nearly 40 minutes. Expect more of the same in Santa Clara. McCaffrey is even better than he was in the first half of the year, and Joshua Garnett and Kyle Murphy headline from the left side one of the country’s most physical O-lines. Plus, the Trojans have been inconsistent on defense, and no longer have injured linebackers Cameron Smith and Lamar Dawson on the second level. Hogan has a hot hand, coming off one of the best games of his career in last week’s thriller over Notre Dame.

Why USC Will Win

This is not a typical Stanford D. And Helton is eager to exploit it.

The Cardinal is uncharacteristically soft this season, sitting 85th nationally in yards per play allowed. In the win over the Irish, Shaw’s kids gave up 533 yards, almost 300 of which came on the ground. Helton has leaned on the backs a little more over the last seven games, and there’ll be no reason to change course on Saturday. USC will pound it right at the front seven with the trio of Tre Madden, Justin Davis and Ronald Jones, the playmaking rookie. The Trojans churned out 235 rushing yards on UCLA last Saturday, which helps decongest defenses for veteran QB Cody Kessler to locate JuJu Smith-Schuster, the best receiver in this game. Banged-up in the secondary, Stanford has been a little soft in coverage the last three games.

Player Who Matters

Notre Dame sold out to stop McCaffrey, who averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. But Hogan made the Irish pay over the top. USC needs to clog running lanes the old-fashioned way, allowing LB Su’a Cravens to freelance more liberally.

If the Trojans are going to duplicate the Irish efforts in run defense, they’ll need another solid effort out of interior linemen Antwaun Woods and Delvon Simmons, who’ve been active all year. If the tackles can eat blocks, it’ll free up Cravens and the rest of the linebackers and safeties to get closer to the action. Stanford can survive when McCaffrey doesn’t go ballistic, as evidenced a week ago. But when he starts to roll, the Cardinal have a penchant for becoming unstoppable. Also, McCaffrey versus USC’s Adoree’ Jackson will be a return game throwdown whose outcome could slant the field decidedly in one direction or the other.

What’s Going To Happen?

It’s late in the year. Injuries are mounting. USC will play valiantly for Helton before wearing down in the latter stages of a tight game.

Stanford is a tough opponent to face in December, when the bumps and the bruises of an entire season have accumulated. Both teams are going to run the ball well behind assertive O-lines, creating ideal working environments for Hogan and Kessler. McCaffrey, though, will deliver the decisive touchdown for the Cardinal, who’ll slip by the Trojans to secure a trip to Pasadena and move the North Division to 5-0 all-time in Pac-12 title bouts.

Pac-12 Championship Game Prediction

Final Score: Stanford 35, USC 30, Line: Stanford -4.5, o/u: 60
Must See Rating: 5: The Big Short – 1: CMA Country Christmas … 4