Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State Prediction, Allstate Sugar Bowl Preview

It might not be the playoff, but the Sugar Bowl is still a huge reward for an Oklahoma State (10-2) team that cranked out a huge bounceback year following a mediocre 2014. Ole Miss (9-3) is back in the New Year’s Six after a horrendous performance in last year’s Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. Check out the Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma prediction and game preview for the Allstate Sugar Bowl.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State Game Preview

Broadcast

Date: Friday, January 1
Game Time: 8:30 pm ET
Network: ESPN
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Follow and/or Contact @PeteFiutak

Why You Need To Care

Oklahoma State had everything set up perfectly.

At 10-0, it hosted a Baylor team with a backup quarterback, but lost in a 45-35 shootout. As things played out, had the Cowboys won the next week against Oklahoma – instead of losing 58-23 – they would’ve been in the playoff, but still, getting into a big-time bowl is a huge moment for them. This has always been a very good program under head coach Mike Gundy, but this is the validation for a strong season and a solid rebuilding job. It’s also proof of the sustained success over the last ten years.

Tremendous in the post-season under Gundy, OSU has won four of its last five bowl games including a play-above-its-head 30-22 win over Washington in last year’s Cactus Bowl and a thrilling overtime victory over Andrew Luck and Stanford in the 2012 Fiesta. However, unlike last season when the Cowboys rallied late just to get a bowl bid, this year’s team is coming in cold. Beating Ole Miss would not only put a positive spin on the rough finish, but it would mean the third season with 11 or more wins in the last seven years.

The expectations are a wee bit different for an Ole Miss team that crashed and burned in last year’s Chick-fil-A Bowl against a cranked up TCU, losing 42-3 in one of the stunners of the post-season. Before that, the program had won six straight bowl games including two under Hugh Freeze. This time, though, this might be culmination of the resurgence, rather than jumping off point.

Freeze and Ole Miss are recruiting well, but there won’t be the haul of talent coming in like the one that shocked the SEC in 2013.

There are at least 16 true pro prospects likely go be gone after this game including juniors WR Laquon Treadwell, OT Laremy Tunsil, DT Robert Nkemdiche, TE Evan Engram and S Tony Conner. No one’s predicting the Rebels will fall off the map next season, but it’s the SEC, and this year Ole Miss is the No. 2 team – it’s going to be hard to maintain the same level after a huge talent loss.

In four years with the program, this is Freeze’s chance for his first ten-win season and a shot to do to OSU what TCU was able to do last year. If the Rebels didn’t get hit with a historically weird finish against Arkansas, it would’ve won the West with a shot against Florida for a possible playoff spot. Blow away the Cowboys, and they’ll prove that they really were that good.

Why Oklahoma State Will Win

Time to get the passing game cranked up.

For all the defensive talent and all the future NFL starters across the board, the Ole Miss secondary has had a slew of problems this year. The stats are a bit misleading considering most teams had to keep throwing to try keeping up the pace, but the secondary was a problem against Arkansas, Auburn and even an LSU team that didn’t throw against anyone. The Rebels allowed 300 yards or more in four of their last six games, and they’re about to get hit hard by the most dangerous passing game they’ve faced all year.

The Cowboys did their part to keep up the pace in the wild Big 12 with 325 passing yards or more in each of their last six games with 21 touchdown passes and just three picks. The combination of Mason Rudolph for the heavy lifting and J.W. Walsh around the red zone has been efficient and effective, and against an Ole Miss team that likes to throw the ball, it should be able to crank up yards in chunks. The nation’s seventh-best passing game will show up. However …

Why Ole Miss Will Win

The Ole Miss defense is really, really good. Yeah, it’ll get tagged with a few hundred passing yards, but everything else is in place to close out the Nkemdiche era with a gem.

Robert Nkemdiche was the star of star recruits for the epic recruiting class, turning into the anchor of a tremendous D that found its groove over the second half of the season while allowing just 3.4 yards per carry on the year and seven touchdowns. Alabama was the only team to run for more than 200 yards and score more than one rushing touchdown on the Rebels – the Cowboys aren’t going to run the ball a lick.

The defense gets the job done, but it’s the Ole Miss offense that’s blossomed the most over the past year with Chad Kelly taking over at quarterback. The interceptions have stopped with none in the last three games, but the production keeps on coming with two touchdown passes or more in each of the last seven games. If the D starts to struggle and this gets into a shootout, there’s going to be no problem hanging punch for punch with a passing attack that hit 70% of its throws four times in the last seven games. The Ole Miss offense will do its part.

Player Who Matters

Whenever Oklahoma State pass rusher Emmanuel Ogbah lines up across from Ole Miss offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, it’ll be the matchup the NFL scouts are going to be watching as much as any this entire bowl season.

With one big performance, Ogbah could go from being a late first/early second round prospect to a sure-thing top 20 must-have. At 6-3 and 270 pounds, he’s got the bulk and he’s got the strength, but he’s still seen as a little bit of an unfinished prospect. The tools are all there, and the production this season was All-America-caliber coming up with 61 tackles, 13 sacks, and 17.5 tackles for loss with four sacks over the key final three-game stretch. Now he gets to show off on the big stage against a team that’s going to throw and throw again. He’ll be turned loose wherever he lines up, but he’ll be going against a pair of NFL-caliber tackles in Fahn Cooper on the right side and Tunsil on the left.

It was as if Ole Miss got a shot in the arm in the middle of the season when Tunsil was over his NCAA seven-game suspension. The O line was able to put the parts in the right place, and the Rebels had a top ten-caliber draft pick at left tackle giving Chad Kelly even more time to work. Last year he suffered a bad leg injury in the bowl game loss against TCU, but he’s back to form and now gets a chance to come up with one final big showing for the scouts. As is he might be the first offensive tackle off the board, if he leaves early, of course. A great game might cement the spot.

What’s Going To Happen?

The SEC has lost the last four Sugar Bowls it’s been in – there was an interruption in 2012 when Michigan faced Virginia Tech – mainly because the league’s representative is coming in on a down note. That wasn’t the case last year when Alabama got run over by Ohio State in the playoff game, but it was the year before when the Crimson Tide hardly had their normal intensity and got pasted by Oklahoma. This time around, the bowl game matters for Ole Miss. It’s the final college game for most of the key parts, and there’s way too much talent on both sides to come up with another 2015 Chick-fil-A Peach performance.

But Oklahoma State’s coaching staff knows how to figure out bowl games.

This is a strong, dangerous team with plenty of firepower on offense and enough talent on defense to be camped out in the backfield and force several big mistakes. Ole Miss will be just a bit stronger defensively in the second half.

Allstate Sugar Bowl Prediction

Prediction: Ole Miss 41, Oklahoma State 31, Line: Ole Miss -7, o/u: 67
Must See Rating: 5: Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens – 1: Property Brothers at Home on the Ranch … 4