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Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Fiesta Bowl Preview
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction and 2015 Fiesta Bowl preview. Find out who's picked to win between the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish.
December 14, 2015
The Fiesta Bowl is like the third playoff game. With absolutely no due respect to the other New Year’s Six games, and remembering that Stanford is probably the real No. 5 team, it’s Notre Dame (10-2) vs. Ohio State (11-1) with all three losses between the two tight enough that they could’ve easily have gone the other way. It’s not the playoff, though, and it’s going to be a strange-feeling early game in Glendale. Check out the Notre Dame vs. Ohio State prediction and preview for the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Game Preview
Broadcast
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
Network: ESPN
Venue: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Follow and/or Contact @PeteFiutak
Why You Need To Care
The 2009 Florida Gators were the defending national champs with just about everyone of note back. It wasn’t the dominant regular season everyone was hoping for, but Urban Meyer’s loaded team still went 12-0 before the one really big game it had to win against Alabama in the SEC championship. The Crimson Tide won 32-13, Tim Tebow cried, and that was it for the dream season and the chance at repeating.
Despite the disappointment, and even though it was the end of the great run, the Gators showed up in a huge way in a dominant blowout win over Cincinnati in the 2010 Sugar Bowl.
Meyer doesn’t have the same health issues as he did following the end of that 2009 season, but his Buckeye team is in a similar spot.
Ohio State might be one of the four best teams in college football, but because it turtled in the biggest game of the year against Michigan State – and because it didn’t make much of a case over the first ten games after a slew of sluggish wins – it’s off to the Fiesta instead of the Orange or Cotton.
So now comes the big question – will Ohio State care?
Will it rise up like those 2009 Gators did with all the pressure off and with the chance to show that, at the very least, it was the second best team? If Ohio State isn’t happy about the playoff situation, then go out and show it. Forget that half the team might have one foot in the NFL, and blow off that this not only isn’t the playoff, but it’s not even the Rose Bowl. A loss to the Irish cements this as a spectacularly disappointing year for a team that should’ve been dominant. A win might seem a little hollow, but a 12-1 season and a 25-1 record in the last 26 games would be terrific no matter what.
It would’ve been interesting if Notre Dame had hung on to beat Stanford.
The Fighting Irish would’ve been 11-1 with a win over Texas and a close, tough loss to No. 1 and unbeaten Clemson on the road. It would’ve been a tough, tough argument for Oklahoma – who lost to the Longhorns – to prove it belonged in, but, of course, Stanford pulled it off and Notre Dame finished 10-2 and two plays away from being unbeaten.
On a two-game bowl winning streak after getting pasted by Alabama in the 2013 BCS Championship, Notre Dame perked up after last season’s Music City Bowl win over LSU and fought its way to the Fiesta. There were too many injuries for the second year in a row, but this time, the Irish were able to rely on their depth and thrive with excellent wins over Navy, USC, Temple and Pitt. However, there wasn’t any one big, splashy victory to define the season.
Beating Ohio State matters for the conference-less program gunning for its second season of 11 or more wins since 1993.
But it’s not like being in the playoff.
Why Ohio State Will Win
The Buckeye running game is rested and should be ready to dominate.
For the most part the Irish D has been outstanding, but the stats are a bit off playing a few pure running teams in Navy, Georgia Tech and BC. It doesn’t matter – the Buckeyes should be able to grind away and control the game and the clock with its power behind Zeke and the quickness and speed when J.T. Barrett gets on the move.
On the other side of the ball, as mediocre as the team as a whole was this year, the Ohio State defense didn’t have any issues finishing second in scoring D and sixth in pass efficiency defense. The Buckeyes have allowed more than 17 points just twice in the last 11 games with the defense playing at a national title level. If it comes into Glendale fully focused, there’s a chance the Notre Dame offense doesn’t go anywhere.
Why Notre Dame Will Win
The time off should help Notre Dame, too.
This offensive line is terrific and should be able to get into a lather at times against an Ohio State defense missing its anchor. It’s still a fantastic front seven, but the Buckeye line worked around Adolphus Washington, the great defensive tackle who was suspended for the bowl game after getting arrested for allegedly trying to solicit an undercover cop. The tackle combination of Joel Hale and Tommy Schutt should be okay, but Washington will be sorely missed – get ready for the Irish to pound away inside as they try to control the game and the clock.
The key will be to give QB Deshone Kizer manageable and easy third down plays against an OSU defense that’s been surprisingly mediocre when it comes to the money plays. For all of Michigan’s issues in the regular season finale, it was able to connect on 9-of-18 third down chances, and Michigan State was able to grind things out by hitting 7-of-15 tries. There were a few struggles late, but on the year the Irish offense has been amazing on third downs, converting 50% of more five times. Hit the 40% mark or more against Ohio State, and the offense will move.
Player Who Matters
Along with Rutgers’ Leonte Carroo – who caught three passes for 55 yards and got hurt – Michigan State’s Aaron Burbridge might have been the best receiver Ohio State has had to deal with. In the ultra-conservative MSU-OSU game with a backup quarterback, he caught four passes for 62 yards. The Buckeye secondary has been outstanding all year, but it hasn’t faced a receiver like Notre Dame junior Will Fuller.
The explosive junior has already said he’s coming back for another year, but there’s word he might be wavering a bit and could change his mind if he blows up in the Fiesta and his stock goes through the roof. If he does return, and the Irish can steady the quarterback play, he’ll be on the short list for the Biletnikoff after coming up with 56 catches for 1,145 yards and 13 scores, averaging 20.5 yards per grab.
Dominant against Stanford and outstanding against Pitt and USC, a game-saver against Virginia, and explosive from the start, he’s been a deep threat machine throughout the year who has to take the top off the Buckeye secondary. Notre Dame has to test him out early and see if he can make take over. If that happen, the rest of the offense will quickly find a groove.
On the other side, this might be the unofficial start of J.T. Barrett’s 2016 Heisman campaign.
After missing the fun last year as he tried recovering from a broken leg, Barrett finally gets his shot to lead the way in a bowl game. While he’s thrown ten touchdown passes and just three picks, he hasn’t been much of a yardage machine with just one 200-yard passing day. The OSU offense revolves around the ground attack, and he’s done his part with 139 yards and three scores against Michigan, and with 11 rushing touchdowns in the last seven games of the season. Elliott might be the star, but for Ohio State to win, this has to be Barrett’s moment.
What’s Going To Happen?
Who’s going to try? Who’s going to get up for this game? If both teams are motivated and interested, this could be the bowl of the season, but that’s also assuming Ohio State is actually better than it’s played all year and Notre Dame is good enough to actually beat a top team and not come one play away.
The Irish offense will stall a bit too often, the Buckeye running game will be a bit too good, and OSU DE Joey Bosa will come up with one of his best games of the season – even when he lines up against Ronnie Stanley. It won’t be a dominant win, but Ohio State will finish like it played all season long. It’ll be underwhelming, but it’ll come up with the win with Elliott breaking off a big dash late.
Fiesta Bowl Prediction
Prediction: Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 17, Line: Ohio State -6.5, o/u: 54
Must See Rating: 5: Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens – 1: Property Brothers at Home on the Ranch … 5
