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Is Les Miles really on a flaming hot seat? Could Nick Saban really end up at Texas? What about Mark Richt leaving Georgia? These questions and more in Ask Fiu.
November 20, 2015Most of the questions this week were about the playoff or the coaching situations. Since it’ll be all about the CFP over the next few weeks, I’ve tried to sum up the key hot seat coaching questions in three key parts.
Please ask questions and I’ll get to as many as I can in future editions by e-mail, or tweet @PeteFiutak, or, because I’ve finally joined 2005, go to Facebook.com/PeteFiutakCI
No one knows LSU better than the Captain SEC, Russ Mitchell.
“Boosters are upset with the late-season swoons and the declining conference record. They’re upset that players like Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and Jeremy Hill are lighting up the NFL, but the team always loses three games even with all the pro talent on the roster. They’re also upset that the school is paying so much money for Miles and his staff, and then comes a game like the Arkansas loss. What can I say? It’s the SEC. Don’t apply logic.”
I don’t quite understand it, either, but even with all the success, Miles has just never quite seemed to mesh with the LSU world.
I don’t know if it’s because winning the 2007 national title got in the way of him taking the Michigan job, I don’t know if it’s because he’s not Nick Saban and LSU isn’t Alabama, and I don’t know if it’s because there’s a thought the program is trending downward if the Tigers collapse over the rest of the regular season, but there’s way too much smoke here.
But take this from another side. While it might seem obvious that you don’t fire a head coach who wins 78% of his games, brings in elite recruits, and has the team at least in the national title discussion at some point year after year after year, but he also just turned 62 and this is going to be the fourth straight season LSU doesn’t win the national championship, doesn’t win the SEC championship, doesn’t win the SEC West, and possibly won’t even finish second in the division.
You could make the argument that Arkansas, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Auburn aren’t going to win anything, either, but it still seems like the needle is pointing up for those four.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, all SEC coaches are on the hot seat with one loss, but those four aren’t quite LSU in terms of where the bar is currently set.
The SEC might be freakin’ nuts when it comes to expectations, but is there a thought that it’ll only take the right coach to turn what Saban and Miles created and tweak this machine just enough to be that perennial playoff team? Or is it just that LSU isn’t winning enough football games? LSU is probably going to lose three games or more for the fourth straight season and for the sixth time in eight years. Unless there’s an epic collapse, Alabama will go a fifth year in a row without losing three games and the seventh time in eight full seasons under Saban.
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, NO. This is just another silly chest-puffing thing thrown out there by some silly Texas people who are doing the same silly banter they came up with right after Mack Brown got pushed out.
Remember, Texas boosterey types were talking about getting a Harbaugh. They were talking Mike Tomlin. They were talking Kevin Sumlin. They were talking about every possible big name head coach in both the college and pro ranks – because, of course, who wouldn’t want to be the head coach at the University of Texas?
And who’d they end up with? Charlie Strong. A terrific coach who’ll be great if he’s given time to really rebuild this thing, but in terms of prestige, he’s not John Harbaugh, he’s not Urban Meyer, and he’s not any of the dream coaching rumors that took on a life of their own a few years ago.
Now it’s being thrown out there that Texas would “break the bank” to get Nick Saban. After all, if Texas A&M could get Dennis Franchione away from Alabama in 2003, why wouldn’t Saban come to Austin for $10 million a year? $15 million? A $100 million package?
Saban just turned 64. While he’s a young 64 and will probably be doing this for another ten years, what does going to Texas do for him? What does adding on to his generational wealth matter to a guy whose whole life revolves around a missed blocking assignment?
No, if and when he leaves Alabama it’s for the NFL. He’s a Bill Belichick guy who wasn’t completely miserable as the Miami Dolphins head coach – he went 15-17 – but with the success of Pete Carroll, and with his pro roots, either Saban is going to chase the big challenge that eluded him the first time around as a pro head man, or he’ll stay in Alabama and, if this keeps up for another five years, could potentially go down as the greatest college football head coach of all-time.
The University of Georgia.
Let this be a lesson to all coaches, and, really, to everyone at their respective jobs. You might not be the best at it, but if you’re very good, and you’re not a dillweed, you’ll get a longer leash.
No one at Georgia really wants to lose Richt, but like all coaches, he has to win more. Being a good guy and the consistent above-averageness only goes so far when you go three straight years without an SEC East title and ten years without an SEC championship, much less a national title.
Sure, it makes sense that he might end up at Florida State if Jimbo leaves – Richt was the hotshot offensive coordinator from 1994 to 2000 – but he’ll get one more go in Athens. However, next year will be win-or-bust.
And to fire through some specific questions that came in this week …
Is Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff no matter what if it wins out? It’s fourth now … so why are people saying they don’t have it locked up if they’re 11-1? – John L.
Writing this on Friday before Oklahoma State deals with Baylor, but if the Cowboys win out, at 12-0 and the Big 12 champs, they’re in. A one-loss SEC champ – either Alabama or Florida – is in. A 13-0 Clemson is in, and if it’s a 12-1 North Carolina that beats 12-0 Clemson in the ACC title game, it might be in. The Big Ten champion – even if it has a loss – is probably going to find its way in, too. Notre Dame needs some help, but with the wins over Navy, USC and Pitt, and if it beats Stanford, is that enough of a resume to get in over an 11-1 Oklahoma? Even with the Texas tie-in – ND beat Texas, Texas beat OU – probably not. The key is Clemson. As long as the CFP committee loves the Tigers, then that 24-22 Irish loss in Death Valley looks fantastic. If Clemson gacks against the breezy finishing kick, that one loss loses its luster.
Last winter, Notre Dame shut down LSU in a bowl game. I know it was a year ago, but does that game carry any weight (in the playoff scenario)? – Robert M.
It doesn’t hurt, could help. When it comes to the College Football Playoff committee and the rankings, in theory, no college football season has ever existed before this one. However, of course last year comes into play in some way when it comes to the preconceived notions, and, remember, Notre Dame fell off the map last year because of massive injuries. Once it got a little bit healthier and the depth started to kick in, then came the bowl performance. But in terms of the playoff committee picking Notre Dame because or ratings, or because it showed up well in its last bowl game, no. The CFP really and truly will base everything off of the merits of the 2015 team.
Why isn’t anyone talking about Houston in the playoff hunt? The resume could turn out to be as good as a lot of teams everyone is into right now. Really, who has Ohio State beaten? – Jack L.
It’s coming. Give it just one more week for the Power Fivers to shake things out, but if Houston goes 12-0 with a win at Louisville, a 34-0 stomping of a not-that-bad Vanderbilt – at least defensively – a Cincinnati team that beat Miami, a Memphis team that beat Ole Miss, and in the AAC title game, a Temple team that beat Penn State, the discussion will most certainly take place.