FSU vs. Houston Prediction, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Game Preview

The Florida State Seminoles (10-2) and the Houston Cougars (12-1) meet in an ACC-AAC battle of schools thrilled that an interim coach won’t be in charge on New Year’s Eve. Check out the FSU vs. Houston prediction and game preview.

FSU vs. Houston Game Preview

Broadcast

Date: Saturday, December 31
Game Time: 12:00 ET
Network: ESPN

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Why You Need To Care

Florida State and especially Houston are happy to be playing in one of this year’s Big Six bowl games. The Noles and the Cougs, though, are even happier that sought-after coaches Jimbo Fisher and Tom Herman, respectively, resisted the overtures of potential suitors.

A year ago, the Cougars canned Tony Levine following a seven-win season, because they knew the program had a higher ceiling. Boy, does that move look prescient now. With Herman at the helm, Houston needed less than a year to become a national entity. The new coach orchestrated the transformation of QB Greg Ward Jr. into a superstar catalyst of a dynamic offense. Not coincidentally, the only time the Cougs lost in 2015, at Connecticut, was when Ward was injured. This program has the wind at its back, especially after Herman inked a five-year extension earlier in the month. And a marquee bowl game against a Power Five opponent affords Houston another chance to make a bold statement.

For the first time in four years, Fisher’s second in Tally, the Seminoles were not peering down on the rest of the ACC. It was unfamiliar territory for a school that had captured three consecutive conference crowns and a national title in 2013. However, this latest edition continued to slip on offense in the wake of Jameis Winston’s departure. First, there was the indefensible collapse to slumping Georgia Tech to end a 33-game regular-season winning streak, and then the stumble in Death Valley to pass the Atlantic Division torch to Clemson. Still, FSU secured its fourth 10-win campaign in a row, landed another marquee bowl bid and kept LSU from poaching Fisher, so it wasn’t all bad.

Why Florida State Will Win

This is too much of a weight class step up for Houston.

Nice team, the Cougars. And a great year, to be sure. But they’ll be out of their league against the Seminoles’ talent. Florida State is simply better at every position except quarterback. It’ll have the best player in the Georgia Dome, RB Dalvin Cook, and the D has had a terrific year, ranking No. 12 nationally in yards per play allowed. The Noles have the defensive speed to contain Ward, and their edge at the line of scrimmage will be immense. Houston was starting three freshmen on the interior at the end of the year, a major concern when facing All-ACC D-linemen DeMarcus Walker, Nile Lawrence-Stample and Derrick Nnadi. Plus, all-league linebackers Terrance Smith and Reggie Northrup have had a month to return to full health.

Why Houston Will Win

The Cougars have the better quarterback and the greater want-to. And that could be enough to engineer the program’s biggest win in a generation.

Houston is this year’s postseason Cinderella as the Group of Five cover boy, so motivation won’t be a problem. And Herman is no stranger to huge bowl games from his days at Ohio State. Plus, can Florida State really have a laser focus for an American Athletic Conference opponent after competing for national championships the last two years? The Cougars can narrow the divide on the Noles with big plays on both sides of the ball. Ward is an electrifying game-changer, with the shiftiness and the quick release to vex talented defenses. Coordinator Todd Orlando heads an attacking D that’s No. 2 in the country with 30 takeaways, led by speedy back seven members Elandon Roberts, Steven Taylor, Trevon Stewart, William Jackson and Adrian McDonald. Cook aside, FSU has been an inconsistent offensive team in 2015 that’s had major issues converting on third downs and in the red zone.

Player Who Matters

Can Florida State QB Sean Maguire play error-free football?

Maguire has Cook, so no one will ask him to be the Noles’ version of Ward. No, more than being a hero, he’ll have to avoid mistakes, because Houston can completely change the tempo of games with their playmaking ability. Interestingly, FSU has done a great job of taking care of the ball this year, leading the ACC in fewest giveaways. Fisher clearly wants to use the run to set up the pass. If the Cougars overplay the run, Maguire has the arm strength to burn them on deep balls to Travis Rudolph and Jesus Wilson.

What’s Going To Happen?

Florida State ought to be very careful in the Georgia Dome.

If the Noles try to mail this game in, they’ll fall to the Cougars, who’ve already beaten the ACC’s Louisville at Papa John’s Stadium. Houston will come prepared and fired up. But it won’t quite be enough to overcome Cook on a fast track and an FSU defense that can control the line of scrimmage. The Seminoles will wear down Houston and frustrate Ward, who’ll face tight passing windows against CB Jalen Ramsey and safeties Derwin James and Lamarcus Brutus. The Cougs will hang for a half before fading over the final two quarters.