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We take a look at the easiest college football schedules for 2016 based on opponents' win percentages from last year.
March 3, 2016To win a national championship, you need more than talent. Lady luck needs to shine down on you, and having an easy schedule helps as well. Need an example? Iowa ran the table last year in the regular season with help from a weak slate of opponents.
When forecasting teams’ success in 2016, a solid metric to look at is their opponent’s success from the year prior. The following teams, which include a few that will be in the national title hunt, must be looking at their 2016 schedules and wondering if they won the jackpot.
Granted, rosters change, but based on last season’s results, these schools have the easiest route to a perfect season and spot in the College Football Playoff.
T-10. Michigan Wolverines
Opponents’ 2015 Record: 78-76 (0.506)
Toughest Games
• at Michigan State (Oct. 29)
• at Iowa (Nov. 12)
• at Ohio State (Nov. 26)
The Harbaugh hype machine will be in full(er) force as the Wolverines get the luxury of opening the season with five straight road games, including dates with Hawaii, Central Florida, and Colorado for a weak out-of-conference schedule before Penn State and Wisconsin come into Ann Arbor. Combine that five-game stretch with the rest of the home slate – Illinois, Maryland, and Indiana – and a perfect record in the Big House is not out of question.
T-10. Oregon Ducks
Opponents’ 2015 Record: 78-76 (0.506)
Toughest Games
• at USC (Nov. 5)
• Stanford (Nov. 12)
• at Utah (Nov. 19)
Opening with UC-Davis and Virginia should be layups. And going into Nebraska would seem like a formidable task 20 years ago, but Tom Osborne and the Big Red Machine are long gone. The Ducks miss out on UCLA in the Pac-12 South, and instead get to play the lifeless Colorado Buffaloes.
9. Missouri Tigers
Opponents’ 2015 Record: 75-75 (0.500)
Toughest Games
• at LSU (October 1)
• at Florida (Oct. 15)
• at Tennessee (Nov. 19)
A three-game stretch near the end of the season could be as simple as it comes in the SEC, as the Tigers host Kentucky, travel to South Carolina, and then return home to host Vanderbilt. Those teams’ combined 2015 record: 14-24. Woof.
8. Georgia Bulldogs
Opponents’ 2015 Record: 74-76 (0.493)
Toughest Games
• at Ole Miss (Sept. 24)
• Florida (Oct. 29)
• Auburn (Nov. 12)
Sure it’s considered a neutral-site game when the Bulldogs play North Carolina in Atlanta, but it should be a home atmosphere for Kirby Smart’s head coaching debut. A favorable SEC road schedule that includes Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Kentucky definitely will help as Georgia looks to win the SEC East for the first time since 2012.
7. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Opponents’ 2015 Record: 73-77 (0.487)
Toughest Games
• at Penn State (Oct. 1)
• Iowa (Oct. 8)
• at Wisconsin (Nov. 26)
Kudos to the Gophers for missing out on Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State from the East this season, and instead getting Maryland and Rutgers in their place. Playing all three out-of-conference games at home only adds to the weakness of this schedule.
T-6. Baylor Bears
Opponents’ 2015 Record: 72-77 (0.483)
Toughest Games
• Oklahoma State (Sept. 24)
• TCU (Nov. 5)
• at Oklahoma (Nov. 12)
An out-of-conference slate of Northwestern State, SMU, and Rice is about as easy as it comes. After hosting Oklahoma State, a trip to Iowa State is followed by an open date before the Bears host doormat Kansas. Art Briles’ and Baylor could go into their second bye date at 6-0, without even having broken a sweat.
T-6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Opponents’ 2015 Record: 73-78 (0.483)
Toughest Games
• at FSU (Oct. 15)
• at Louisville (Nov. 12)
• Clemson (Nov. 19)
Tulane, Delaware, and Army isn’t exactly a murderer’s row for out-of-conference opponents, and combining that with a home conference schedule that includes Syracuse, Virginia, and Boston College has head coach Dave Clawson eyeing his first winning season in Winston-Salem.
T-4. Maryland Terrapins
Opponents’ 2015 Record: 71-80 (0.470)
Toughest Games
• Michigan State (Oct. 22)
• at Michigan (Nov. 5)
• Ohio State (Nov. 12)
Congratulations, D.J. Durkin, as the first three opponents – Howard, FIU, and Central Florida – you face as head coach of the Terrapins went a combined 6-29 last season. Escaping Iowa and Wisconsin from the West division and replacing them with Purdue and Indiana makes Testudo one happy Turtle.
T-4. Boston College Eagles
Opponents’ 2015 Record: 71-80 (0.470)
Toughest Games
• at Virginia Tech (Sep. 17)
• Clemson (Oct. 7)
• At FSU (Nov. 11)
Massachusetts, Wagner, and Buffalo are not tough non-conference opponents, while the Eagles travel to Dublin, Ireland to open the season against a Georgia Tech team that was bad last season.
2. Florida Gators
Opponents’ 2015 Record: 69-78 (0.469)
Toughest Games
• LSU (Oct. 8)
• at Arkansas (Nov. 5)
• at FSU (Nov. 26)
Florida will cruise to a 3-0 record to start the season with games against Massachusetts, Kentucky, and North Texas. Vanderbilt, Missouri, and South Carolina all had losing records last season, and there is that little game against Presbyterian waiting for the reserves in November.
1. Clemson Tigers
Opponents’ 2015 Record: 67-81 (0.453)
Toughest Games
• at Auburn (Sep. 3)
• at FSU (Oct. 29)
• Pittsburgh (Nov. 12)
How do you get back to the College Football Playoff National Championship game? Well, Clemson’s schedule certainly helps. The Tigers get Louisville, Pittsburgh, and South Carolina all in Memorial Stadium, while trips to Georgia Tech, Boston College and Wake Forest should be no problem.