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Cotton Bowl Prop Bets: Key Stats For Alabama vs. Michigan State
Prop bet ideas for the Cotton Bowl between Alabama and Michigan State. What are some of the key stats and big numbers to watch out for?
December 29, 2015
Cotton Bowl prop bets and key stats – what numbers are going to make the difference between Alabama and Michigan State?
2015 Cotton Bowl Prop Bets
These aren’t official lines – except for the over/under and the spread – but what are some of the more interesting stats to watch out for in the Cotton Bowl? What are some of the important numbers that’ll make all the difference?
Alabama: Derrick Henry will carry the ball 30 times
UNDER: The Heisman winner dominated games throughout the second half of the season with 30 carries or more four times in the final seven games – but one of those was a nine-carry day against Charleston Southern. Michigan State will control the clock to keep Bama from running the ball more than 40 times total.
Michigan State: Aaron Burbridge, 6.5 catches
OVER: He’ll be absent early, but Connor Cook will find him on a few short-range plays to get him going in the second half. On the year, Burbridge has made 80 catches for 1,219 yards and seven scores.
Alabama: Defense will come up with 3.5 sacks
UNDER: The Crimson Tide D generated plenty of sacks against mobile quarterbacks, but Connor Cook will get the ball out of his hands in a hurry.
Michigan State: Offense will convert 40% of its third down chances
UNDER: The Spartans are fourth in the nation converting 51% of their third down tries, while Alabama is fifth in the nation allowing teams to convert just 28% of the time. On the year, MSU was at 40% or more nine times in 13 games including wins over Ohio State, Iowa and the loss to Nebraska. However, it converted just 25% of the tries against Oregon and Michigan.
Alabama: Run D will allow 100 rushing yards
OVER: The Crimson Tide lead the nation against the run giving up 74 yards per game and allowed more than 100 just twice on the year. Michigan State won’t run wild, but it’ll come up with just enough production to balance out the attack.
Michigan State: Connor Cook will throw for 240 yards
OVER: He’ll do it easily. Cook is a 300-yard machine in the big games, and even with his hurt shoulder he’ll put the game in his hands. He’s averaging 243 passing yards per game, but he’ll push the Alabama secondary around.
Time of Possession
ALABAMA: The Crimson Tide are fifth in the nation keeping it for 33:52 a game, while Michigan State is tenth keeping it for 33:12. Alabama will win the battle, but not by enough to make a substantial difference.
Over/Under: 47
UNDER: The Ohio State-Alabama Sugar Bowl in the inaugural CFP shocked with a 42-35 shootout. Michigan State allowed more than 26 points just once all year – and lost. Alabama allowed more than 23 points just one all year – and lost. The chance that this becomes a bit of a firefight is there with all the talent on the field, but this will be more like the 16-13 Big Ten championship and the 29-15 SEC title game.
Alabama -10 over Michigan State
MICHIGAN STATE: From the defense, to the quarterback, to the coaching staff, to the experience, the Spartans have everything in place to keep this close throughout, if not win it outright. Alabama will win the game, but it’ll sweat it out in a close, tight battle. Michigan State is the one team with the makeup to beat Alabama if Alabama is playing up to its full capabilities. Watch out for the line to drop to nine around gametime.
