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Colorado vs. Oregon State prediction and game preview. Projecting who wins between the Buffaloes and Beavers.
September 27, 2016Colorado vs. Oregon State prediction and game preview. Projecting who wins between the Buffaloes and Beavers.
When: Saturday, Oct. 1 – 2:30 p.m. ET
Where: Folsom Field, Boulder, Colorado
TV Broadcast: Pac-12 Network
Colorado has been the better team in 13 of the 16 quarters it’s played in. The Buffaloes are 3-1 with wins against rival Colorado State, Idaho State and Oregon, the latter of which came on the road in Eugene, 41-38. Mike MacIntyre’s team also led Michigan, 21-7, after the first quarter in Ann Arbor. Colorado surrendered that lead in the second quarter and fell, 45-28
Like Colorado did, Oregon State took advantage of playing Idaho State and came away with a 37-7 victory in Week 2. That win was sandwiched in between a 30-23 loss to Minnesota and a 38-24 loss to Boise State last weekend. The Broncos ran roughshod through the Beavers by scoring 31 points in the first half. The Beavers outscored Boise State in the second half but were unable to complete the comeback.
Oregon State leads the all-time series with Colorado, 5-3. The Beavers took last year’s meeting, 17-13. The Buffaloes had won the previous two matchups before that.
Quarterback Sefo Liufau was banged up in the loss to Michigan. He missed last week’s game with an ankle injury, and Steven Montez finished with 23-of-32 passes completed for 333 yards and three touchdowns. He also threw two interceptions, so there’s that. But Montez was able to get things going with his legs, too. He rushed for 135 yards and a score on 21 carries. Phillip Lindsay and Kyle Evans supplied an extra charge in the running game with 133 yards and a touchdown on 25 attempts. Devin Ross was Montez’s main target. They connected seven times for 153 yards and a score.
The Oregon State defense was clearly outmatched against Boise State. It allowed Broncos running back Jeremy McNichols to rush for 208 yards and three touchdowns on 28 carries. On the flip side, the Beavers’ running back, Ryan Nall, rushed for 66 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries. Nall has been a staple in Oregon State’s passing game, but he only reeled in two catches for 10 yards last weekend. Quarterback Darell Garretson is troubled by a leg injury, but head coach Gary Andersen is hopeful he can be ready to go for Saturday. If not, Conor Blount will be the guy under center. He came in for Garretson last weekend and completed 11-of-18 passes for 138 yards.
Offense: It has to be Colorado. Even with Liufau out, the Buffaloes have barely skipped a beat with Montez running the show. Colorado is ranked No. 15 in total offense (523.3 yards per game).
Defense: This goes to the Buffaloes as well. They’re ranked No. 15 in total defense (306.5 yards per game) Kenneth Olugbode and Rick Gamboa have been tackling machines.
Special Teams: The edge here goes to the Beavers. Victor Bolden is dangerous in the return game. He’s averaging 40.2 yards per kick return and has already taken one to the house. Between him and Garrett Owens having hit 4-of-6 field goal attempts, it goes to Oregon State.
Coaching: Nothing against coach Andersen, but MacIntyre has his team clicking right now. The Buffaloes believe in him, and his staff has been doing a great job.
Ryan Nall vs. Colorado linebackers
He didn’t have a great game last week, but Nall has been solid so far this season. It’ll be a fun matchup to watch between him and the Buffaloes’ linebackers. Olugbode and Gamboa have combined for 53 total tackles so far, and 33 of them have been solo tackles. They’ll have to watch Nall in the flats and in drag routes. If he gets involved in the passing game early, that could open it up for the Beavers. Colorado’s linebackers will have to maintain gap control and force Nall back inside if he heads for the edge.
Spread: Colorado -18
Over/Under: N/A
With Liufau still hobbled, Montez should get one more start here before a competition is fully ignited. He’ll do work on the ground and rush for more than 100 yards once again. Montez will find the end zone twice on the ground and once through the air. Lindsay will add to the Colorado rushing attack by hovering around the 100-yard mark, but he’ll break into the end zone, too. Nall will have an average game with less than 100 rushing yards, but he’ll cross the plane for a score at least once. The Buffaloes will win this one by three possessions.
Colorado vs. Oregon State Score Prediction: Colorado 45, Oregon State 28