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College Football Playoff Rankings: Analysis, Breakdown Week 4
Where did the College Football Playoff committee get it right with the fourth week of the rankings? Where did they miss? Analysis of the fourth rankings of the CFP season.
November 25, 2015
College Football Playoff Rankings: Analysis & Breakdown
What are the big things to take away from the fourth installment of the College Football Playoff rankings? What did the committee get right, and what did it mess up?
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These are the rankings before the rankings before the rankings.
It keeps getting said every week that these are just a snapshot of the moment more than an indicator of what’s going to end up happening. Remember, this is all going to change next week, and it’s all going to change again the week after with the final call.
Yeah, there was a ton of movement, but that’s what’s supposed to happen. The committee was supposed to start from scratch each and every time they meet, so just because a team is in one spot and wins, that doesn’t guarantee a move up. This is all based on who the 25 best teams are right now.
So …
R-E-L-A-X …
Look, Notre Dame and Florida fans, your respective teams are going to be just fine if they take care of their business.
Maybe.
Florida dropped from eight to 12 after a horrible performance against Florida Atlantic, but it doesn’t matter. Beat Florida State, win the SEC championship, get into the College Football Playoff. Forgetting that the Gators aren’t playing all that well, they still – for all intents and purposes – control their own destiny.
Notre Dame, yeah, being fourth and then dropping to sixth stinks, but go an blowout Stanford, and that changes right back.
The Fighting Irish now have wins over No. 25 Temple and No. 15 Navy, along with good victories over Pitt and USC – each probably better than No. 24 Toledo. Look great against No. 9 Stanford on the road, and it’s Game On again.
But what did we learn?
Don’t win ugly against awful teams
Nice work, CFP committee. I dogged you last week, but this time around you did exactly what you’re supposed to do and got all over Florida for that game against FAU, and you correctly punished Notre Dame for looking bad at times in the win over Boston College.
But it’s more than that.
Last week’s No. 24 USC team lost, so that win doesn’t look nearly as strong now for Notre Dame. Last week’s No. 15 LSU squad lost and dropped out – which was a wee bit harsh, but okay – and Florida paid the price.
However, if you’re going to dog a team for one bad game now, then …
Why Oklahoma up to No. 3?
Sure, fine. Oklahoma just beat now-No. 19 TCU and has a win over No. 7 Baylor on the resume. However, the Sooners won both games against backup quarterbacks – just like Clemson’s two big wins over Notre Dame and Florida State-I-know-and-I-don’t-care-Maguire-really-is-the-No. 2 – and it almost collapsed late against the Horned Frogs. TCU cranked up its No. 3 quarterback option and still came within a two-point conversion of pulling off the win.
Sure, throw the win over Tennessee into the equation, too, but Iowa has wins over No. 16 Northwestern along with a Wisconsin team that just got hosed by those Wildcats – and it doesn’t have a loss to Texas.
Baylor at No. 7
After beating now-No. 11 Oklahoma State on the road, Baylor could make some massive noise even through it’s down to the third-string quarterback.
If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then it’s all up to Baylor with No. 19 TCU up next before closing out against Texas. And here’s the key part of that puzzle – the regular-season finale could royally mess up Notre Dame.
The Fighting Irish have the argument over Oklahoma – they beat Texas, Texas beat OU. If Baylor crushes the Longhorns and finishes 11-1, it’ll have two excellent road wins over Oklahoma State and TCU, a not-bad loss to Oklahoma, and if OU loses to OSU, it’ll be the One True Champion in the Big 12.
And it’ll have the Texas win, too.
Who controls their own destiny?
As chairman Jeff Long stated, no team controls its own destiny – the committee controls that.
But, really, which teams can get it done?
No. 1 Clemson – beat South Carolina, beat North Carolina in ACC championship
No. 2 Alabama – beat Auburn, beat Florida in SEC championship
No. 4 Iowa – beat Nebraska, beat Big Ten East champion in Big Ten championship
No. 12 Florida – beat Florida State, beat Alabama in the SEC championship
That’s it. Any of those four would no way, no how miss out on the playoff by winning out.
Everyone else, win, and win impressively.
At the moment, if done absolutely as correctly as possible based on what has happened so far, the rankings on Nov. 24 should be …
Starting at the very top and working the way down, just like the CFP committee does it, start with the top team and flow everything from there. So, based on head-to-head matchups first and foremost, and what the CFP put together, these are what the rankings probably should be.
For example, if Clemson really is No. 1, then Notre Dame – with the only loss coming to the Tigers – could technically be No. 2. However, these are based on more than that.
Throwing in a little bit of the eye-test where needed, but, again, based on the CFP rankings and mostly on resume and CFP top 25 wins …
1. Alabama (CFP: No. 2)
2. Clemson (CFP: No. 1)
3. Iowa (CFP: No. 4)
4. Notre Dame (CFP: No. 6)
5. Oklahoma (CFP: No. 3)
6. Michigan State (CFP: No. 5)
7. Baylor (CFP: No. 7)
8. Oklahoma State (CFP: No. 11)
9. Florida (CFP: No. 12)
10. Ohio State (CFP: No. 8)
11. Michigan (CFP: No. 10)
12. TCU (CFP: No. 19)
13. Oregon (CFP: No. 17)
14. Northwestern (CFP: No. 16)
15. Stanford (CFP: No. 9)
16. Ole Miss (CFP: No. 18)
17. Utah (CFP: No. 23)
18. Washington State (CFP: No. 20)
19. Navy (CFP: No. 15)
20. UCLA (CFP: No. 22)
21. Toledo (CFP: No. 24)
22. North Carolina (CFP: No. 14)
23. Florida State (CFP: No. 13)
24. LSU (CFP: Not Ranked)
25. Mississippi State (CFP: Not Ranked)
