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Early College Football Bowl Picks, Lines, First Reactions
Early college football bowl picks, lines and first reaction to the 2015-16 lineup of postseason games.
December 7, 2015
College football picks,
lines and first reactions to the 2015-16 postseason lineup.
Follow and/or Contact @PeteFiutak
It looks like a strong bowl season overall, but what’s going to happen
in each game? As every sixth grade teacher advises on multiple choice exams,
when in doubt, go with your first thought. So here are the off-the-cuff
predictions, unfiltered thoughts, and best guesses on what the lines will be
after they settle down.
I got the lines for the New Year’s Six games, but I
purposefully didn’t look at the others to see how close to the pin I could get.
Don’t hold me to these picks in a few weeks – these will change a bit, but for
now …
College Football Playoff Championship
Monday, January 11, ESPN
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Playoff Winner vs. Playoff Winner
Projection: Oklahoma vs. Alabama
First Reaction Thought: I wouldn’t be shocked at any sort of configuration. I’m lying. I’ll be stunned if Alabama doesn’t come up with something special. If the Crimson Tide are good enough to get by Michigan State, they’ll be more than good enough to handle the Sooners.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Alabama 31, Oklahoma 16
My Guess On the Line Is … Alabama -7.5
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
College Football Playoff Semifinal
Thursday, December 31, 8:00 pm ET, ESPN
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Playoff vs. Playoff
Matchup: Alabama vs. Michigan State
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Alabama 27, Michigan State 23
My Guess On the Line Is … Alabama -5.5 (actual line, Alabama -9.5)
Capital One Orange Bowl
College Football Playoff Semifinal
Thursday, December 31, 4:00 pm ET, ESPN
Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Playoff vs. Playoff
Clemson vs. Oklahoma
First Reaction Thought: I love the idea that Clemson can come into this game with an underdog mentality. There’s a reason for that – the team struggled against mediocre competition over the final month. I hate picking Oklahoma in bowl games, because you never know what you’re going to get, but I love the idea of a rested Sooner team coming out roaring. The defense will keep Deshaun Watson in check.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Oklahoma 41, Clemson 30
My Guess On the Line Is … Oklahoma -2.5 (actual line, Oklahoma -3.5)
New Year’s Six Bowls
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Thursday, December 31, 12:00 pm ET, ESPN
Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA
Florida State vs. Houston
First Reaction Thought: Florida State has more talent, and it has Dalvin Cook, but Houston has the Group of Five mentality. Easily the weakest of all the big bowl matchups, the Cougars could absolutely carry the torch for Boise State and UCF over the last two seasons, but there’s one difference – those two played teams that played for conference titles. I like the idea of Florida State having something to prove.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Florida State 26, Houston 20
My Guess On The Line Is … Florida State -3.5 (actual line, Florida State -7)
Fiesta Bowl
Friday, January 1, 1:00 pm ET, ESPN
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
First Reaction Thought: How do you try to keep interest in college football the morning after the two College Football Playoff semifinals? Notre Dame vs. Ohio State could easily be playoff-good, but if it’s possible, it’s going to fall flat. Notre Dame will be healthier, but no way Urban doesn’t get this team up to try showing what the world missed out on. Easy January 2 narrative: “What if the Buckeyes …”
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Ohio State 34, Notre Dame 23
My Guess On The Line Is … Ohio State -4.5 (actual line, Ohio State -6.5)
Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual
Friday, January 1, 5:00 pm ET, ESPN
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Iowa vs. Stanford
First Reaction Thought: I know this is the wrong way to look at this game, but … I’m sort of bored. It’s the Rose Bowl, of course I care, but after the two playoff games the night before and Notre Dame vs. Ohio State to kick off January 1st, I’m worried I’ll have to fake the funk. Here’s the problem – and it’s a new part of the playoff era. If Iowa wins, okay. That’s nice. If Stanford wins, okay. That’s nice. If it’s not Big Ten champion vs. Pac-12 champion, or the playoff, it’s tough to get too jacked.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Iowa 27, Stanford 24
My Guess On The Line Is … Stanford -7 (actual line, Stanford -6.5)
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Friday, January 1, 8:30 pm ET, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss
First Reaction Thought: This might turn out to be the best game of the New Year’s Six. Ole Miss brings the offense, Oklahoma State is going to show up with a bad (in a good way) attitude after the Oklahoma loss, and this is going to be a show. Of course, that’s what I thought before Ole Miss lost to TCU in last season’s Peach Bowl, too.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Oklahoma State 34
My Guess On The Line Is … Ole Miss -8.5 (actual line, Ole Miss -7)
MORE: Click for the latest bowl preview and prediction videos
2015-2016 Bowl Schedule
AutoNation Cure Bowl
Saturday, December 19, 12:00 pm ET, CBSSN
Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando, FL
San Jose State vs. Georgia State
First Reaction Thought: Phenomenal San Jose State pass defense vs. phenomenal Georgia State passing offense. The Panthers will be jacked to be in a bowl, the Spartans will be jacked to be doing anything at 5-7. The Mountain West defense will show up.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: San Jose State 31, Georgia State 23
My Guess On The Line Is … San Jose State -2.5
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, December 19, 2:00 pm ET, ESPN
University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Arizona vs. New Mexico
First Reaction Thought: This game should take about an 90 minutes with the two running games rolling. New Mexico’s ground attack will be terrific, but Arizona will make amends for a dud of a Fiesta Bowl performance last year. There’s no more RichRod to South Carolina speculation – that’ll matter.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Arizona 40, New Mexico 27
My Guess On The Line Is … Arizona -10.5
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl
Saturday, December 19, 3:30 pm ET, ABC
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Utah vs. BYU
First Reaction Thought: I’ve heard fans from both sides try to downplay the Holy War, but I don’t care. Go ahead and force the rivalry if you must, but this might be the fiercest and angriest of all the bowl games. This is the rare midrange bowl matchup that truly matters.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Utah 27, BYU 24
My Guess On The Line Is … BYU -4
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Saturday, December 19, 5:30 pm ET, ESPN
Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Ohio vs. Appalachian State
First Reaction Thought: Appalachian State is a whole bunch better than you think. The two losses are to Clemson and an Arkansas State team that ripped through the Sun Belt. This would’ve been a good bowl team last year, and this time around it’ll be pumped at the opportunity.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Appalachian State 27, Ohio 17
My Guess On The Line Is … Appalachian State -4.5
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Saturday, December 19, 9:00 ET, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Louisiana Tech vs. Arkansas State
First Reaction Thought: This is almost always a fun watch – okay, last year’s Louisiana-Lafayette 16-3 win over Nevada, not so much. Arkansas State fans bring it, and so does the team this year. It’s like a home game for Louisiana Tech, whose fans should help make this a fantastic atmosphere. These two are just five hours apart, but they’ve only played 18 times and having faced each other since 1998.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Arkansas State 28, Louisiana Tech 24
My Guess On The Line Is … Arkansas State -2.5
Miami Beach Bowl
Monday, December 21, 2:30 pm ET, ESPN
Marlins Park, Miami, FL
South Florida vs. WKU
First Reaction Thought: Can we get the WKU that went wild in the best bowl game of last season? This won’t be like the Popeyes Bahamas Bowl that the Hilltoppers pulled off over Central Michigan, but South Florida is good, head coach and former WKU main man Willie Taggart is staying around, and the two teams should bring the effort.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: WKU 35, South Florida 27
My Guess On The Line Is … WKU -4
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, December 22, 3:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bronco Stadium, Boise, ID
Akron vs. Utah State
First Reaction Thought: Utah State’s defense hasn’t been quite up to its normal snuff, but if you like offense, this isn’t going to be the game for you. Akron might not be scintillating, but it can pop a little bit. Whatever the over/under is, think way under.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Utah State 23, Akron 13
My Guess On The Line Is … Utah State -4.5
Boca Raton Bowl
Tuesday, December 22, 7:00 pm ET, ESPN
FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
Temple vs. Toledo
First Reaction Thought: Normally I’d go against the team undergoing a coaching change, but Toledo’s is as smooth as glass promoting defensive coordinator Jon Heacock. Temple has something to prove after a rough end to the season, and it’s going to come up with a gem in what should be a fun fight.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Temple 23, Toledo 20
My Guess On The Line Is … Toledo -3.5
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Wednesday, December 23, 4:30 pm ET, ESPN
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
Northern Illinois vs. Boise State
First Reaction Thought: Two juggernaut Group of Fivers who weren’t so juggernauty this year, Northern Illinois is banged up at quarterback, and Boise State is inconsistent, but this is a strong matchup of brand name teams. Northern Illinois stinks in bowls, Boise State doesn’t.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Boise State 38, Northern Illinois 20
My Guess On The Line Is … Boise State -6
GoDaddy Bowl
Wednesday, December 23, 8:00 pm ET, ESPN
Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL
Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
First Reaction Thought: YEEAAHHHHHH. My total bowl geekiness in full blossom over this one hoping for an insane shootout. MAC champion Bowling Green brings one of the nation’s most fun and exciting offenses, and it showed against NIU it could pound a little bit. Georgia Southern and its devastating rushing attack got embarrassed by Georgia State to end the season – the ground game was fine, though. The difference will be the coaching. It’s SO hard to prepare for the Panthers, and BGSU interim head man Brian Ward will have to try.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Georgia Southern 44, Bowling Green 40
My Guess On The Line Is … Bowling Green -8
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
Thursday, December 24, 12:00 pm ET, ESPN
Thomas Robinson Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas
Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan
First Reaction Thought: My Second Annual bad line. Popeyes, good. Bahamas, good, Popeyes Bahamas ALLL good. If this can be half as fun as last year’s WKU shootout win over Central Michigan, it’ll be appointment viewing. With the Middle Tennessee and Western Michigan offenses, it might be.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Western Michigan 48, Middle Tennessee 45
My Guess On The Line Is … Western Michigan -7
Hawai’i Bowl
Thursday, December 24, 8:00 pm ET, ESPN
Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI
San Diego State vs. Cincinnati
First Reaction Thought: I have no idea why the Mountain West champion was sent off to Hawaii. It’s a nice reward for a school that already lives in a vacation paradise, but it would’ve been nice to have seen a bigger, better matchup – those were impossible to find this bowl season. Cincinnati is a good, sound team with a great offense going against an elite defense. The pressure is on the Aztecs to carry the Mountain West flag.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: San Diego State 26, Cincinnati 17
My Guess On The Line Is … San Diego State -2.5
St. Petersburg Bowl
Saturday, December 26, 11:00 am ET, ESPN
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Connecticut vs. Marshall
First Reaction Thought: As I tell my kids when it’s “spaghetti with stuff” night, not every dinner is going to be your favorite. I’m sure these two will put on an entertaining game, and it’s something to do the day after Christmas, but this is going to test my bowl-watching love. However, this might be a breakthrough moment in the UConn resurgence,
and it should be tight late.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Connecticut 20, Marshall 17
My Guess On The Line Is … Marshall -5
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Saturday, December 26, 2:00 pm ET, CBS
Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, TX
Miami vs. Washington State
First Reaction Thought: Will Cougar fans travel to El Paso? Will the Miami fan know this game is going on? It’ll be interesting to see how the Hurricanes play with everyone auditioning for Mark Richt’s future gametape, but Washington State will get past the bad performance in the Apple Cup and will get hot early
in what should be a fantastic game.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Washington State 41, Miami 34
My Guess On The Line Is … Miami -2
Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl
Saturday, December 26, 2:20 pm ET, ESPN
Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, TX
Washington vs. Southern Miss
First Reaction Thought: Not to be a Power Five snob, and I’m sure the stats don’t back me up, but I’ll take the young big-conference team that’s going to try over the solid Group of Five squad whose best win is Louisiana Tech. The Southern Miss offense is about to hit a wall.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Washington 41, Southern Miss 17
My Guess On The Line Is … Washington -10.5
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Saturday, December 26, 3:30 pm, ABC
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Duke vs. Indiana
First Reaction Thought: Already … sick … of … basketball references. Indiana’s offense was excellent over the second half of the season, and now everyone will have a few weeks to get healthy. It’s going to roll over Duke team that died down the stretch.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Indiana 37, Duke 30
My Guess On The Line Is … Indiana -3.5
Camping World Independence Bowl
Saturday, December 26, 5:35 pm ET, ESPN
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Virginia Tech vs. Tulsa
First Reaction Thought: I’m absolutely stunned the bowl world didn’t send Frank Beamer out with the Military Bowl vs. Navy. Tulsa isn’t very good at college football this season, and Virginia Tech will be emotionally cranked up to send its head coach out in style.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Virginia Tech 40, Tulsa 23
My Guess On The Line Is … Virginia Tech -12
Foster Farms Bowl
Saturday, December 26, 9:15 pm ET, ESPN
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Nebraska vs. UCLA
First Reaction Thought: This is massive only because UCLA can’t lose it. The Bruins were a half-step away from playing for the Pac-12 title, and now it has to babysit the 5-7er? Watch out for Nebraska to play with a new life and a lot of fire with a good offensive shot, and turn the ball over five times along the way.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: UCLA 37, Nebraska 31
My Guess On The Line Is … UCLA -5
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman
Monday, December 28, 2:30 pm, ESPN
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
Pitt vs. Navy
First Reaction Thought: If any coaching staff should be able to figure out the Navy option attack with three weeks to prepare, it’s Pitt’s. The Panthers struggled a bit over the second half of the season, but playing North Carolina and Notre Dame had something to do with it. Even so, Keenan Reynolds and company will make a statement in his final game.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Navy 24, Pitt 20
My Guess On The Line Is … Pitt -3
Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, December 28, 5:00 pm, ESPN2
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Central Michigan vs. Minnesota
First Reaction Thought: It’s not a bad matchup considering it’s a 5-7 team going against a MAC team that’s not supposed to be here. Central Michigan quietly had a strong season, while Minnesota just plain needs this more. When in doubt, pick the Power Fiver.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Minnesota 30, Central Michigan 21
My Guess On The Line Is … Minnesota -6.5
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Tuesday, December 29, 2:00 pm ET, ESPN
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
California vs. Air Force
First Reaction Thought: The air show vs. the ground attack. This is a big one for the Mountain West – this is a game it should be able to win against a Pac-12 team that started red hot and faded. Jared Goff will try to show the world why he was supposed to be the Next Big NFL Thing, but the Falcons will pick off three passes and should control the game.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Air Force 30, California 27
My Guess On The Line Is … California -6.5
Russell Athletic Bowl
Tuesday, December 29, 5:30 pm ET, ESPN
Orlando Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
North Carolina vs. Baylor
First Reaction Thought: I’m not greedy. I’m just asking for 87-85 with these two offenses going batspit insane. Will Baylor have a healthy quarterback? Will this be the time when North Carolina comes up with a real, live win over a team that doesn’t stink? This could’ve easily have been the Peach Bowl, but it just so happens to be down the road a bit – and in a bad time slot.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Baylor 52, North Carolina 45
My Guess On The Line Is … Baylor -2
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Tuesday, December 29, 7:30 pm ET, Campus Insiders
Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Colorado State vs. Nevada
First Reaction Thought: Welcome to the celebration of all things Mountain West. This is how deep and how strong the conference was with so many bowl teams available. MWaction on MWaction action, it should be a
solid game with the Rams coming in on a four-game winning streak and winning five of their last six, and, despite losing two straight, Nevada entering the game playing well. Throw in the online broadcast on Campus Insiders, and this is one of the season’s most unique bowls.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Colorado State 31, Nevada 23
My Guess On The Line Is … Colorado State -6
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
Tuesday, December 29, 9:00 pm ET, ESPN
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Texas Tech vs. LSU
First Reaction Thought: Okay, Les Miles. The drama is over, everyone loves you again, and you’re safe and secure. However, with the loaded team coming back next year, and the expectations that’ll go with it, coming up with a big bowl performance should help set the tone. On the flip side, Texas Tech, make a statement against an SEC team that was in the national title hunt a month ago.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: LSU 38, Texas Tech 16
My Guess On The Line Is … LSU -8.5
Birmingham Bowl
Wednesday, December 30, 12:00 pm ET, ESPN
Legion Field, Birmingham, AL
Memphis vs. Auburn
First Reaction Thought: It doesn’t fit. Memphis lost its coach, Auburn is playing in Birmingham – and angry. One problem, though – Auburn sucks this season, and Memphis doesn’t. Even so, I’ll be stunned if the Tigers – the SEC version – don’t come up with a strong game to close this out and set the tone for next year.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Auburn 27, Memphis 21
My Guess On The Line Is … Auburn -1
Belk Bowl
Wednesday, December 30, 3:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
NC State vs. Mississippi State
First Reaction Thought: Battle of the sleeper quarterback darlings of the NFL scouts. Jacoby Brissett has the size and the tools, and Dak Prescott has the game, but you’re probably in trouble if either one is starting for your pro team. Even so, these two are going to put on a show.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Mississippi State 47, NC State 37
My Guess On The Line Is … Mississippi State -7.5
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Wednesday, December 30, 7:00 pm ET, ESPN
LP Field, Nashville, TN
Louisville vs. Texas A&M
First Reaction Thought: Very, very quietly, Louisville closed out strong. It made Kentucky feel bad about itself with a bowl-hope crushing win as part of a run of five wins in the final six games. Also very, very quietly, Texas A&M just flat-sucked after starting out 5-0. Texas A&M has the talent; Louisville is going to play better.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Louisville 27, Texas A&M 23
My Guess On The Line Is … Texas A&M -4.5
National University Holiday Bowl
Wednesday, December 30, 10:30 pm ET, ESPN
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
USC vs. Wisconsin
First Reaction Thought: Clay Helton, don’t lose this. Beating UCLA and getting to the Pac-12 title game was fun, but now that you’re the head man, don’t lose the Kid’s Table Rose Bowl to a decent Wisconsin team that hasn’t beaten ANYBODY. If the Badgers lose this, it’s a mediocre squad that just so happened to have an easy slate. If it wins, it goes to show how close they might have been to greatness.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction:Wisconsin 26, USC 23
My Guess On The Line Is … USC -5
Outback Bowl
Friday, January 1, 12:00 pm ET, ESPN2
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Northwestern vs. Tennessee
First Reaction Thought: Honest first reaction? Peyton Manning to Jason Witten in the 1997 blowout Citrus Bowl. Northwestern has done a brilliant job of finding a way to win, but this just has ugly delivered with a bow.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Tennessee 38, Northwestern 13
My Guess On The Line Is … Tennessee -6.5
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
Friday, January 1, 12:00 pm ET, ABC
Orlando Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
Michigan vs. Florida
First Reaction Thought: If Florida couldn’t score over the last month of the season, why does anyone think it’s going to suddenly figure something out against a Jim Harbaugh-coached Michigan team with a tremendous D? Throw in the faceplant the Wolverines dealt with against Ohio State, and this might not be fun.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Michigan 27, Florida 10
My Guess On The Line Is … Michigan -5
TaxSlayer Bowl
Saturday, January 2, 12:00 pm ET, ESPN
EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Penn State vs. Georgia
First Reaction Thought: This is by far the toughest bowl game to call. It’s a total guess considering Georgia is without Mark Richt and in a transition period before Kirby comes to town, but on the flip side, Penn State sucks. I’ll take the guess that the team with the stable head coaching situation and strong defense will figure this out, but this isn’t going to be a thing of beauty.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Penn State 17, Georgia 16
My Guess On The Line Is … Georgia -5
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Saturday, January 2, 3:20 pm ET, ESPN
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, TN
Arkansas vs. Kansas State
First Reaction Thought: Bleeeech. With all due respect to Bill Snyder, his team is about to get blasted. And if this isn’t a whole other level of uggo, Bret Bielema should get cranked for it. His Hogs are so much better than this punchless K-State team, however, this all flips around if Snyder announces that this is it – even though he’s supposedly coming back next year.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Arkansas 45, Kansas State 10
My Guess On The Line Is … Arkansas -10
Valero Alamo Bowl
Saturday, January 2, 6:45 pm ET, ESPN
Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
TCU vs. Oregon
First Reaction Thought: This is pure bowl candy. We’ll all be getting a wee bit tired of the non-stop bowl season, but just when it all appears to be a bit too much, we’re going to get a show. TCU will finally be a bit healthier, Oregon should be ready to roll, and the matchup that might have been a playoff game last year should be a whole bunch of yippee if you like offense.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Oregon 45, TCU 40
My Guess On The Line Is … TCU -3
Cactus Bowl
Saturday, January 2, 10:15 pm ET, ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
West Virginia vs. Arizona State
First Reaction Thought: Just when it seemed like West Virginia was pretty good, it gacked away the Kansas State game. Arizona State gets a home game, but that’s not going to make it all that much better. Even so, the Sun Devils will take advantage of the friendly environment.
Early Knee-Jerk Prediction: Arizona State 34, West Virginia 26
My Guess On The Line Is … West Virginia -1.5
