College Football Betting Advice for Week 5 Games of the Week

    The South Point Sportsbook in Las Vegas released their Game of the Year lines in May and there were four games included for the Week 5 slate. Here is a

    September 27, 2018

    The South Point Sportsbook in Las Vegas released their Game of the Year lines in May and there were four games included for the Week 5 slate. Here is a preview for all four games from a handicapping viewpoint.


    Ole Miss at 5 LSU (-11.5)

    It’s not often that the No. 5 ranked team in the country is only an 11.5-point home favorite against an unranked team. Especially when the home team is known for having one of the best home-field advantages in the country. But that’s the position LSU is in as they host SEC West rival Ole Miss.

    This game opened at LSU -13 in May and was bet up to LSU -15 by July. The Tigers started the season 4-0, including upsets over Miami and Auburn. However, the line for this game is lower than the numbers from the summer.

    It’s a good time to sell LSU before the toughest part of their schedule begins. The Tigers’ stats aren’t impressive either. Quarterback Joe Burrow still has a completion percentage of under 50 percent, and LSU was outgained in their opening win against Miami and last week in a victory over Louisiana Tech.

    Ole Miss brings in an exciting offense that is led by top NFL wide receiver prospect A.J. Brown. Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has had a strong start to the season throwing for 1,359 yards and 10 touchdowns in the first four games. Two weeks ago, the Rebels jumped out to a 7-0 lead against Alabama before giving up the last 62 points of the game. I expect an inspired effort from Ole Miss against a slightly overrated LSU team. I don’t trust the Tigers’ offense to cover a double-digit spread — side with the road team to stay within the number.


    12 West Virginia (-3.5) at 25 Texas Tech

    If you want to see points early in the day, then stay locked into this top-25 matchup in the Big 12. This line opened Texas Tech -3 in the summer but swung 4.5 points by July where West Virginia was a 1.5-point favorite. There was buzz this summer about the West Virginia offense that was led by Will Grier, and the quarterback was receiving preseason Heisman Trophy attention.

    So far, the buzz for Grier has been warranted; he’s thrown for 14 touchdowns in the first three games of the season. He’s backed up by an impressive group of receivers in Marcus Simms, David Sills V and Gary Jennings Jr., all of whom have at least 15 receptions and 240 yards this year.

    The point spread has ticked up to over a field goal because of West Virginia’s great start, but Texas Tech has quietly had a strong start since freshman Alan Bowman took over as the starting QB. Bowman stepped in when McLane Carter left the opening game against Ole Miss with an injury. Since that loss, Bowman is 3-0 as a starter with 1,557 yards, 10 touchdowns and a completion percentage of 72.1. Bowman threw for 605 yards and five touchdowns against Houston and guided Texas Tech to a stunning 41-17 upset at Oklahoma State last week.

    This isn’t an ordinary conference road trip, as West Virginia has to travel almost 1,500 miles from Morgantown to Lubbock for an 11 a.m. local time start. It should be an entertaining game with a total set at 75. Look for Bowman and Texas Tech to keep the game close and possibly pull out the outright upset.


    7 Stanford at 8 Notre Dame (-5.5)

    The line for this game opened Notre Dame -8 in May. Like most Game of the Year lines involving Notre Dame, there was money against the Fighting Irish. The spread was Notre Dame -5 for this particular game in late July. However, you can throw all those numbers out the window because Notre Dame has a new outlook on the offensive side of the ball.

    A report came out late in the week that quarterback Ian Book would start over Brandon Wimbush in Notre Dame’s road game at Wake Forest last week. Book did start and accounted for five total touchdowns and 325 passing yards in a 56-27 victory. It looks like coach Brian Kelly made the right decision, and the offense will open up through the air for Notre Dame. Wimbush only threw one touchdown in three starts, was completing just 55 percent of his passes and threw three interceptions against Ball State.

    Stanford comes into this game off a miraculous win at Oregon where they were outplayed for 60 minutes, but somehow won 38-31 in overtime. The Cardinal benefitted from a fumble return for a touchdown to cut the lead to 24-14 in the third quarter. Then, they were given a lifeline when Oregon fumbled trying to run out the clock. Stanford should have lost the game and now they have to hit the road again for a long trip to South Bend.

    Something to note in this game is the fatigue of both defenses. I mentioned last week that the Notre Dame defense could be tired for the Wake Forest game because they were on the field for 97 plays against Ball State and 70 plays against Vanderbilt. Last week the Fighting Irish defense played 92 snaps. Notre Dame’s defense will be responsible for containing Stanford running back Bryce Love. The Stanford defense might also be feeling tired after being on the field for 82 plays against Oregon. With not much game film on Book, this could be a tough matchup for the Cardinal to prepare for. This makes the best bet in this game over 54 points with a smaller bet on Notre Dame to cover the point spread at six points or less.


    4 Ohio State (-3.5) at 9 Penn State

    The line for this game opened Ohio State -1.5 in May and there’s been a small adjustment as the Buckeyes are 3.5-point road favorites at Penn State. Beaver Stadium is going to be one of the best scenes you’ll see all college football season for this primetime game.

    Penn State and Ohio State are No. 1 and No. 2 in scoring offense in the nation after the first four weeks of the season. Ohio State had no problem running up huge offensive scores in home victories against Oregon State, Rutgers and Tulane. The Buckeyes’ offense might be that good, led by first-year starting QB Dwayne Haskins. Also Ohio State may have wanted to prove a point after Urban Meyer was suspended for the first three games of the season.

    Penn State’s offense has put up 63 points the last two weeks. However, I dove deeper into the box scores this week and discovered they were in close games at halftime against Pittsburgh and Illinois before pulling away.

    The total for this game is 71 because of the numbers of both offenses through four weeks. When these two teams played against each other at Penn State two years ago, Ohio State was a 17.5-point favorite and the over/under was only 54.5. Penn State won in a huge upset that changed the direction of the program, and that game stayed under the total.

    A bet on under 71 at this inflated number is a good move, as is a bet on Ohio State to cover as road favorites. This will be the game Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley will miss having former offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead calling the plays and Saquon Barkley in the backfield.

    It might be worth waiting until the day of the game in hopes that the line drops to Ohio State -3, but -3.5 is still a fine bet — especially with such a high total.


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