Clemson vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Orange Bowl Preview

The last time the world saw Clemson (13-0) and Oklahoma (11-1) they were mired in one of the worst games of the 2014 bowl season. The Tigers destroyed the Sooners 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl, but both teams are far stronger and far better now as they play for a shot at the Alabama-Michigan State winner for the national championship. Check out the Clemson vs. Oklahoma prediction and game preview for the Capital One Orange Bowl.

Clemson vs. Oklahoma Game Preview

Broadcast

Date: Thursday, December 31
Game Time: 4:00 ET
Network: ESPN
Venue: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Follow and/or Contact @PeteFiutak

Why You Need To Care

It took a little bit of tweaking, it took an offensive adjustment, and – to be brutally honest – it probably took a Stanford field goal to beat Notre Dame, but Oklahoma is back in the national title picture with a two-game shot to win the school’s first national title since shocking the world with a 2001 Orange Bowl win over Florida State.

It’s been 14 seasons since Bob Stoops stormed onto the scene with a nasty defense, an explosive offense, and the attitude that took the superpower program back to among the elite. Just when it seemed like things were starting to slip, and just when it appeared like the Stoops run was beginning to get a little bit stale, the Sooners went back to the wide-open, Air Raid style of offense that helped define legendary college quarterbacks Jason White, Sam Bradford and Josh Heupel.

And now, Baker Mayfield.

If the Big Game Bob mystique was lost in the 35-7 Big 12 title game thumping to Kansas State – and later in the national title loss to LSU in the Sugar Bowl – it started to bounce back a bit this season, with the program starting to flash a little of that swagger that made it the Big 12’s biggest power since Stoops’ arrival.

There isn’t the intimidation factor like there was when some of the past defenses had games won before they even hit the field, and this isn’t the unstoppable offensive machine that won Bradford the Heisman in 2008, but this could be one of Stoops’ most complete teams. It’s a team built by a coach who’s been around long enough to see what does and doesn’t work, and one who’s smart enough and talented enough to figure out how to fix the glitches.

And now it’s time to get back into the show.

It’s not fair for a coach with nine Big 12 championships in 17 years to also have his era defined almost as much by the epic losses – 2004 Orange Bowl vs. USC, 2007 Fiesta Bowl to Boise State, 2008 Fiesta Bowl to West Virginia, 2009 BCS Championship to Florida – but that can’t-get-back-over-hump narrative comes into play when there’s an 8-5 clunker campaign like OU had last year.

A win over Clemson would be the redemption. A win would mean the fifth national title appearance under Stoops, his seventh season of 12 or more wins, and, most likely, the team’s highest final ranking since winning the national title back in 2001.

But no matter what happens, Stoops is an all-time legend. Dabo Swinney is on his way.

With five straight seasons of ten or more wins, and with three straight bowl victories, Swinney has put together some massive seasons. But for all the success, this is the year. This is the team that was able to take advantage of getting the two biggest games against Notre Dame and Florida State at home. It also helped a bit that the Seminoles took a wee step back, and it also helped that the ACC just wasn’t all that great. But there were other teams in the ACC, too, and none of them finished the season unbeaten.

Plenty of big schools had relatively easy slates – Iowa didn’t have to play anyone nasty from the Big Ten North until the title game – but if it was easy to go 13-0, everyone would do it.

Even though it’s the lone team without a blemish, it wasn’t a breezy last part of the season with too-tough battles against bad Syracuse and South Carolina teams before closing out with an ACC title win over a North Carolina team that’s still searching for its first big win of the season.

So is Clemson more like Oregon of last year – with the hot quarterback and the team that appeared to be ready to take the first round of the College Football Playoff by storm – or is like 2014 Florida State with a slightly puffed up unbeaten record?

It’s the rare opportunity that the unbeaten No. 1 team in the country – especially considering it went coast-to-coast as the CFP’s top team – can rally around the idea that no one believe in it, but it’s true. It doesn’t matter what anyone thinks – good or bad. Win two games, and Clemson will be among the superpowers.

Why Oklahoma Will Win

It’s okay to mess up here and there against the Wake Forests and Syracuses of the world, but turning the ball over isn’t going to fly against the Sooners.

Clemson has the high-powered offense and aggressive defense to make up for most mistakes, but turnovers are an issue with a -2 margin six times on the year. Fortunately, for the Tigers, they were a combined +8 in the biggest games against Notre Dame, Miami, Florida State and North Carolina, but Oklahoma isn’t going to give the ball up enough to make a different.

The Sooners are a +12 since the loss to Texas and haven’t been on the wrong side of the turnover margin since. The secondary will give up plenty of yards, but it’s also brilliant at coming up with the big picks and the big plays to make up for it.

The defense has been solid, but it’s the offense that’s taking the program back to a national title level with 500 yards or more in each of the last seven games after the Texas loss. The two lowest outputs of the year came against the Longhorns – 278 yards – and Tennessee – an almost-loss with 348 yards and a minor miracle at the end. Clemson’s defense all of sudden struggled against the balance of a South Carolina offense that doesn’t really have any true balance. It kept North Carolina’s Marquise Williams from doing anything consistently well, but the big yards were still there in the shootout. Oklahoma can to do a little of everything right with the ground game taking over in the second half of the year to go along with the big plays from Mayfield. There’s no way to slow down this attack cold, and Clemson isn’t equipped to do it.

Why Clemson Will Win

The defense knows how to get off the field.

There were a few problems on third downs over the last three games allowing teams to convert 35% of their chances, but even though the D gave up a few too many points and had problems at times, it’s been great overall when it’s had to be.

North Carolina’s Marquise Williams was able to crank up a 240 yards and three scores, but he also struggled and sputter completing just 34% of his chances. Perry Orth and South Carolina came up with 221 yards and three scores, but the Gamecock passing game only hit half its passes.

The Clemson pass rush generates enough pressure and enough big plays to rattle quarterbacks, and it should be able to keep Baker Mayfield in the pocket and keep him contained. OU’s offense survives just fine even though it gives up a bunch of sacks, but in what should be a shootout, all it might take is one or two stops here and there to make this work.

More than anything else, and beyond all the Xs and Os, Clemson now has the right attitude when it comes to the big, giant bowl games. It all started with the stunning win over a strong LSU team to win the 2013 Chick-fil-A, it continued by getting the offense rolling to beat Ohio State in the 2014 Orange, and then last year the coaching staff got the team up for the 40-6 blasting of OU in the Russell Athletic.

The whole idea of Clemsoning is gone, considering the last eight losses as a program have come to teams that won ten games or more, and the four losses over the last three years – twice to Florida State, one to a Georgia Tech team that won last season’s Orange Bowl, and one to a South Carolina squad that finished 2013 11-1 with a Capital One win – were against teams that ended up doing something special. Clemson is more ready for a game like this than it’ll probably get credit for.

Player Who Matters

Is Deshaun Watson about to Vince Young up? Can he be the type of performer who can go from being the catalyst and team leader to a transcendent college football legend?

The talent is in place to do it throwing for 260 yards or more in eight of his last nine games – the one game he was under was the 58-0 Golden-firing drubbing of Miami – while also rushing for over 100 yards in four of the last five games. He’s not carrying the team on his back – there’s a lot more to Clemson than just Watson – but he’s the one who’s taking a very, very good team and making it national-title-good. He didn’t play in last year’s bowl win over OU, and he struggled throwing the ball against Notre Dame, but he was great over the last two years against Florida State and is used to having defenses trained to stop him. However, now he’s going to have to deal with a Sooner defense that’s had a month to get ready.

Is Baker Mayfield about to Vince Young up? He has the running game to help him out, but can he be the type of performer who can go from being the catalyst and team leader to a transcendent college football legend?

His story is already amazing – going from Texas Tech starter to Oklahoma walk-on, but as it turned out, he was exactly what Bob Stoops was looking for.

Ever since the Sooners got ripped apart by Texas A&M in the 2013 Cotton Bowl, Stoops has been looking for his own Johnny Manziel. He thought he had one in Trevor Knight – who’s looking into his transfer options – but he found it in the 6-1, 209-pound Mayfield.

The baller’s baller, Mayfield does a little of everything right throwing 35 touchdown passes on the year and just five picks, while running when needed to keep things moving. He’s not quite Baker Manziel in terms of magic, but he’s the tone-setter and emotional firecracker. Texas stopped him with the pass rush and didn’t let him do much down the field – Tennessee did, too. With the running back tandem of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine to work with, Mayfield doesn’t have to do it all. But there will be times when he might have to.

What’s Going To Happen?

Be extremely disappointed if this isn’t a shootout that sets the tone for a wild New Year’s Eve.

It’ll take a little bit to get rolling, and both defenses will come up with big moments with the pass rush, but the quarterbacks will each get red hot in a second half full of unstoppable drives and big plays. Oklahoma’s running game will be a little bit stronger to get control as the game goes on, and the Sooner D will do its part with a few key interceptions deep in its own territory. It’ll be a thriller – both teams will end up looking terrific, even with Clemson suffering a painful loss.