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Brett McMurphy’s Final College Football Bowl Projections
On Sunday, the College Football Playoff selection committee will announce the College Football Playoff pairings, and later in the afternoon, the New
December 2, 2018
On Sunday, the College Football Playoff selection committee will announce the College Football Playoff pairings, and later in the afternoon, the New Year’s 6 bowls.
At 4 p.m. ET Sunday at WatchStadium.com, Stadium will have a one-hour bowl special where we will break down the playoff and New Year’s 6 bowls. I also will provide up-to-the minute bowl pairings for the non-College Football Playoff bowls.
By Sunday night, all of the 39 bowl pairings will be official. But there’s no reason to wait. Here are my final bowl projections.
Last year, in my final day bowl projections, I correctly projected 77 of the 78 bowl-bound schools. Of the 78 bowl bids, I had 53 schools projected in the correct bowl, including 15 bowls where I correctly projected both teams.
Let’s start with the playoff field: I believe Oklahoma did enough by winning the Big 12 and will move into the top 4. The Sooners’ reward? Facing No. 1 Alabama in the Orange Bowl. No. 2 Clemson and No. 3 Notre Dame will play the other semifinal in the Cotton Bowl.
As far as the New Year’s 6 bowls, it will be Ohio State vs. Washington in the Rose Bowl, Georgia vs. Texas in the Sugar Bowl, Michigan vs. Florida in the Peach Bowl and LSU vs. UCF in the Fiesta Bowl.
The non-New Year’s 6 bowls is where it gets tricky. There were 82 bowl-eligible teams for 78 spots. I’m projecting Miami, Ohio (6-6), Wyoming (6-6), UL-Monroe (6-6) and Southern Miss (6-5) won’t receive a bid.
Onto the projections:
College Football Playoff
Championship – Jan. 7 (CFP semifinal winners)
Projection: Alabama vs. Clemson
Semifinals
Orange Bowl – Dec. 29 (CFP semifinal)
Projection: Alabama (CFP No. 1) vs. Oklahoma (CFP No. 4)
Cotton Bowl – Dec. 29 (CFP semifinal)
Projection: Clemson (CFP No. 2) vs. Notre Dame (CFP No. 3)
New Year’s 6 Bowls
Rose Bowl – Jan. 1 (Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Ohio State vs. Washington
Sugar Bowl – Jan. 1 (Big 12 vs. SEC)
Projection: Texas vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl – Jan. 1 (at-large vs. Group of 5*)
Projection: LSU vs. UCF
Peach Bowl – Dec. 29 (at large vs. at-large)
Projection: Michigan vs. Florida
Other Bowls
Citrus Bowl – Jan. 1 (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Projection: Penn State vs. Kentucky
Outback Bowl – Jan. 1 (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Projection: Iowa vs. Mississippi State
Gator Bowl – Dec. 31 (ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC)
Projection: NC State vs. Texas A&M
Holiday Bowl – Dec. 31 (Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Northwestern vs. Oregon
Liberty Bowl – Dec. 31 (Big 12 vs. SEC)
Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Vanderbilt
Redbox Bowl – Dec. 31 (Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Michigan State vs. Stanford
Sun Bowl – Dec. 31 (ACC vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Pitt vs. Utah
Military Bowl – Dec. 31 (ACC vs. American)
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Arizona Bowl – Dec. 29 (Mountain West vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: San Diego State vs. Arkansas State
Belk Bowl – Dec. 29 (ACC vs. SEC)
Projection: Virginia vs. Missouri
Alamo Bowl – Dec. 28 (Big 12 vs. Pac-12)
Projection: West Virginia vs. Washington State
Camping World Bowl – Dec. 28 (ACC vs. Big 12)
Projection: Syracuse vs. Iowa State
Music City Bowl – Dec. 28 (ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC)
Projection: Purdue vs. South Carolina
Texas Bowl – Dec. 27 (Big 12 vs. SEC)
Projection: Baylor vs. Auburn
Pinstripe Bowl – Dec. 27 (ACC vs. Big Ten)
Projection: Miami vs. Wisconsin
Independence Bowl – Dec. 27 (ACC vs. SEC)
Projection: Duke vs. Temple**
Cheez-It Bowl – Dec. 26 (Big 12 vs. Pac-12)
Projection: TCU vs. Cal
Quick Lane Bowl – Dec. 26 (ACC vs. Big Ten)
Projection: Boston College vs. Western Michigan**
First Responder Bowl – Dec. 26 (C-USA vs. Big Ten)
Projection: Marshall vs. Minnesota
Hawaii Bowl – Dec. 22 (C-USA vs. Mountain West)
Projection: Louisiana Tech vs. Hawaii
Dollar General Bowl – Dec. 22 (MAC vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: Buffalo vs. Troy
Armed Forces Bowl – Dec. 22 (American vs. Big 12)
Projection: Nevada** vs. Army**
Birmingham Bowl – Dec. 22 (American vs. SEC)
Projection: Memphis vs. Georgia Tech**
Idaho Potato Bowl – Dec. 21 (MAC vs. Mountain West)
Projection: Ohio vs. BYU**
Bahamas Bowl – Dec. 21 (C-USA vs. MAC)
Projection: FIU vs. Toledo
Gasparilla Bowl – Dec. 20 (ACC vs. American)
Projection: Wake Forest vs. USF
Frisco Bowl – Dec. 19 (American vs. MAC)
Projection: Houston vs. Boise State**
Boca Raton Bowl – Dec. 18 (American vs. C-USA)
Projection: Northern Illinois** vs. UAB
New Orleans Bowl – Dec. 15 (C-USA vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State
Camellia Bowl – Dec. 15 (MAC vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Las Vegas Bowl – Dec. 15 (Mountain West vs. Pac-12)
Projection: Fresno State vs. Arizona State
Cure Bowl – Dec. 15 (American vs. Sun Belt)
Projection: Tulane vs. Louisiana
New Mexico Bowl – Dec. 15 (C-USA vs. Mountain West)
Projection: North Texas vs. Utah State
* – The highest rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in either the Cotton, Fiesta or Peach Bowl.
** – Replaces team from league that can’t fill bowl.
