Brett McMurphy’s College Football Bowl Projections After Week 9

    Is Oklahoma still projected to earn a College Football Playoff bid?

    Even after Oklahoma’s upset loss to Kansas State Saturday, I’m still projecting the Sooners to make the College Football Playoff as the Big 12 champions.

    Obviously, Oklahoma will have to run the table, which it will be favored to do.

    There are literally dozens of scenarios to make a case for a one-loss non-Power Five champion to earn a berth in the College Football Playoff. But for now, I believe the four-team playoff will be filled by four Power Five conference champions.

    Although I’m only projecting seven SEC teams to be bowl-eligible, four of those will be in either the playoff or a New Year’s Six bowl (LSU, Alabama, Georgia and Florida).

    New to my projections this week is Illinois after pulling off consecutive upsets the past two weeks against Wisconsin and Purdue. Another change involves Notre Dame. After the Irish’s blowout loss at Michigan, I don’t see the Fighting Irish earning a New Year’s Six bowl bid, but instead will play in an ACC bowl (right now, I’ll go with the Camping World Bowl).

    Onto this week’s projections:

     

    College Football Playoff

    ChampionshipJan. 13 (CFP semifinal winners)
    Projection: LSU vs. Ohio State

    Semifinals
    Peach BowlDec. 28 (CFP semifinal)
    Projection: LSU (CFP No. 1) vs. Oklahoma (CFP No. 4)

    Fiesta BowlDec. 28 (CFP semifinal)
    Projection: Ohio State (CFP No. 2) vs. Clemson (CFP No. 3)

     

    New Year’s 6 bowls

    Rose BowlJan. 1 (Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
    Projection: Penn State vs. Oregon

    Sugar BowlJan. 1 (Big 12 vs. SEC)
    Projection: Baylor vs. Alabama

    Orange BowlJan. 1 (ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame)
    Projection: Wake Forest vs. Georgia

    Cotton BowlDec. 28 (at-large vs. Group of 5*)
    Projection: Florida vs. SMU*

     

    Other Bowls

    Citrus Bowl(Big Ten vs. SEC)
    Projection: Michigan vs. Auburn

    Outback Bowl(Big Ten vs. SEC)
    Projection: Minnesota vs. Texas A&M

    Gator Bowl(Big Ten/ACC vs. SEC)
    Projection: Iowa vs. Kentucky

    Holiday Bowl(Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
    Projection: Wisconsin vs. USC

    Liberty Bowl(Big 12 vs. SEC)
    Projection: TCU vs. Cincinnati**

    Redbox Bowl(Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
    Projection: Indiana vs. Washington

    Sun Bowl(ACC vs. Pac-12)
    Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Arizona State

    Military Bowl(ACC vs. American)
    Projection: Florida State vs. UCF

    Arizona Bowl(Mountain West vs. Sun Belt)
    Projection: Wyoming vs. Georgia Southern

    Belk Bowl(ACC vs. SEC)
    Projection: Louisville vs. Arizona**

    Alamo Bowl(Big 12 vs. Pac-12)
    Projection: Texas vs. Utah

    Camping World Bowl(ACC vs. Big 12)
    Projection: Notre Dame vs. Kansas State

    Music City Bowl(ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC)
    Projection: Pitt vs. Mississippi State

    Texas Bowl(Big 12 vs. SEC)
    Projection: Oklahoma State vs. NC State**

    Pinstripe Bowl (ACC vs. Big Ten)
    Projection: Virginia vs. Michigan State

    Independence Bowl(ACC vs. SEC)
    Projection: North Carolina vs. Utah State**

    Cheez-It Bowl(Big 12 vs. Pac-12)
    Projection: Iowa State vs. Stanford

    Quick Lane Bowl(ACC vs. Big Ten)
    Projection: Duke vs. Nebraska

    First Responder Bowl(Big 12 vs. C-USA)
    Projection: Nevada** vs. Marshall

    Hawaii Bowl(AAC vs. BYU)
    Projection: Memphis vs. BYU

    Mobile Bowl (MAC vs. Sun Belt)
    Projection: Central Michigan vs. Georgia State

    Armed Forces Bowl(Big Ten vs. Mountain West)
    Projection: Illinois vs. Air Force

    Birmingham Bowl(American vs. SEC)
    Projection: Navy vs. Southern Miss**

    Idaho Potato Bowl(MAC vs. Mountain West)
    Projection: Ohio vs. San Diego State

    Bahamas Bowl (C-USA vs. MAC)
    Projection: FAU vs. Buffalo

    Gasparilla Bowl (American vs. C-USA)
    Projection: Tulane vs. Louisiana Tech

    Frisco Bowl(American vs. Open)
    Projection: FIU** vs. San Jose State**

    Boca Raton Bowl(American vs. MAC)
    Projection: Temple vs. Toledo

    New Orleans Bowl(C-USA vs. Sun Belt)
    Projection: Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State

    Camellia Bowl (MAC vs. Sun Belt)
    Projection: Western Michigan vs. Louisiana

    Las Vegas Bowl(Mountain West vs. Pac-12)
    Projection: Boise State vs. Washington State

    Cure Bowl(American vs. Sun Belt)
    Projection: Liberty** vs. Arkansas State

    New Mexico Bowl(C-USA vs. Mountain West)
    Projection: UAB vs. Hawaii


    *-The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl.

    **-Replaces team from league that can’t fill bowl.

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