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Nine teams ranked in the AP Top 25 Poll are in action Tuesday night, including seven teams in the top 10 and three of the four No. 1 seeds in Stadium's
February 5, 2019Nine teams ranked in the AP Top 25 Poll are in action Tuesday night, including seven teams in the top 10 and three of the four No. 1 seeds in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections. Every ranked team is playing an unranked opponent Tuesday and four of them are on the road, so these are games that could potentially decide which teams earn a No. 1 seed, No. 2 seed or No. 3 seed in March.
Here’s a look at Tuesday’s biggest games and how they could impact the resumes of the teams involved.
Note: The NCAA Tournament seed projections listed below are from Stadium’s latest Bracket Scouting, which was released Monday, February 4.
Duke (19-2): No. 3 NET; 5-1 Quadrant 1, 5-1 Quadrant 2, 5-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4
Stadium’s NCAA Tournament Projection: No. 1 seed
Boston College (11-9): No. 137 NET; 0-3 Quadrant 1, 3-2 Quadrant 2, 2-2 Quadrant 3, 6-2 Quadrant 4
The only way this game affects this year’s NCAA Tournament seeding is if Boston College wins – something they did at home last season against the Blue Devils behind 30 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists from Ky Bowman. The Eagles represent a potential Quadrant 3 loss, which would be Duke’s first “bad loss.”
Boston College starts the day in 11th place in the ACC and just two games over .500, so a road win at Cameron Indoor Stadium wouldn’t even be enough to put the Eagles on the bubble.
[RELATED: Stadium’s Latest NCAA Tournament Projections]
South Carolina (11-10): No. 104 NET; 3-5 Quadrant 1, 2-3 Quadrant 2, 2-1 Quadrant 3, 3-1 Quadrant 4
Kentucky (18-3): No. 5 NET; 6-2 Quadrant 1, 3-1 Quadrant 2, 4-0 Quadrant 3, 5-0 Quadrant 4
Stadium’s NCAA Tournament Projection: No. 2 seed
This might be one of the most intriguing games of the night because of the disparity in the two teams’ resumes and NET rankings, despite their relatively similar standing in the SEC.
Kentucky is tied for second in the SEC with LSU – one game behind Tennessee – and South Carolina is alone in fourth place, one game behind the Wildcats and Tigers. Only four of the SEC’s 14 teams have a record above .500 in conference play, so South Carolina has established itself as one of the conference’s frontrunners almost halfway through SEC play despite their underwhelming non-conference record.
In one sense, there’s nothing that weird about a top-four team in a power conference beating another top-four team in the conference on the road. But in another, a team that’s only one game above .500 beating a top-five team on the road is incredibly unusual. Kentucky is a 16-point favorite, according to Vegas Insider.
This would be a Quadrant 1 win for South Carolina, which would improve the Gamecocks’ record to a respectable 4-5 in that quadrant, and it would be a Quadrant 3 loss for Kentucky, which would make it the Wildcats’ most damaging defeat of the season.
South Carolina probably needs to go 7-3 or better in its final 10 regular season games to get on the NCAA Tournament bubble and this would be a statement win for the Gamecocks if they want to make an improbable run toward the field of 68.
Michigan State (18-4): No. 7 NET; 9-3 Quadrant 1, 3-1 Quadrant 2, 1-0 Quadrant 3, 5-0 Quadrant 4
Stadium’s NCAA Tournament Projection: No. 2 seed
Illinois (7-15): No. 98 NET; 1-9 Quadrant 1, 3-4 Quadrant 2, 1-1 Quadrant 3, 2-1 Quadrant 4
It seems like Michigan State annually has a rough stretch in January. Last season, the Spartans started the season 15-1 before losing two of three with a home, overtime win over Rutgers sandwiched in between.
In 2017, they went 3-4 in January. The season before that they lost three straight following a 16-1 start.
Michigan State’s road game at Illinois could be the fork in the road that determines whether the Spartans have returned to their top-10 efficiency, dominant offensive rebounding, shot-blocking selves or if it’s time to have a fire sale on their stock. They’re on a two-game skid – a road loss at Purdue is explainable, but less so is a home loss to an Indiana team that had lost seven straight and played without senior forward Juwan Morgan for most of the game.
A loss to Illinois, even on the road, might make less sense than a home loss to undermanned Indiana.
Michigan (20-2): No. 6 NET; 5-2 Quadrant 1, 7-0 Quadrant 2, 1-0 Quadrant 3, 7-0 Quadrant 4
Stadium’s NCAA Tournament Projection: No. 1 seed
Rutgers (11-10): No. 119 NET; 1-7 Quadrant 1, 4-2 Quadrant 2, 0-0 Quadrant 3, 6-1 Quadrant 4
It took five years, but the time has come: Rutgers is a competitive Big Ten basketball program.
That feels weird typing such a sentence, but the Scarlet Knights enter Tuesday tied for ninth in the Big Ten with a 4-7 record – their most conference wins in a season since joining the conference in 2014.
Remember the shock in 2015 when Rutgers beat Wisconsin (albeit a Badgers team without National Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky) then lost its next 15 games to end the season?
Well, this isn’t Eddie Jordan’s Rutgers anymore. The Scarlet Knights have already beaten Ohio State, Nebraska and Indiana at home, while the Wolverines have lost two of their last three road games.
A loss for Michigan would be its first Quadrant 2 loss of the season.
NC State (16-6): No. 34 NET; 1-5 Quadrant 1, 4-0 Quadrant 2, 2-1 Quadrant 3, 9-0 Quadrant 4
Stadium’s NCAA Tournament Projection: No. 11 seed (Last Four In)
North Carolina (17-4): No. 9 NET; 5-4 Quadrant 1, 5-0 Quadrant 2, 3-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4
Stadium’s NCAA Tournament Projection: No. 2 seed
Are we sure that NC State is an NCAA Tournament team? Asking for a friend.
The Wolfpack have one good win (at home against Auburn in December) and one bad loss (at Wake Forest). We’re not going to even touch their 24-point performance Saturday against Virginia Tech.
NC State’s schedule does it few favors. Four of its nine remaining regular season games will fall under Quadrant 3 or Quadrant 4.
It only has three remaining Quadrant 1 games in the regular season: at North Carolina, at Duke and at Florida State. You can probably pencil in losses for the first two games against their in-state foes, which are a combined 20-2 at home this season. Florida State is probably the most winnable game of the three and NC State will still likely be an underdog at tipoff in Tallahassee.
A 1-8 Quadrant 1 record would leave NC State sweating on Selection Sunday so the Wolfpack really need to win one, if not two, of those three road games. Their first chance is Tuesday night.
North Carolina doesn’t have the same issue with lack of opportunities for quality wins. Eight of its 10 remaining games will fall under Quadrant 1 or Quadrant 2, including Tuesday’s game. The Tar Heels could have a perfect record in Quadrant 2 games with notable remaining home games against NC State, Syracuse and Florida State.
St. John’s (16-6): No. 45 NET; 3-4 Quadrant 1, 4-0 Quadrant 2, 2-2 Quadrant 3, 7-0 Quadrant 4
Stadium’s NCAA Tournament Projection: No. 10 seed
Marquette (19-3): No. 18 NET; 6-3 Quadrant 1, 3-0 Quadrant 2, 3-0 Quadrant 3, 7-0 Quadrant 4
Stadium’s NCAA Tournament Projection: No. 3 seed
St. John’s was the last team to beat Marquette, back on New Year’s Day to the tune of 89-69. The two schools have since trended in opposite directions.
The Golden Eagles are 8-0 since and the Red Storm are 3-5.
Despite a 12-0 start to the season, albeit with nine wins that fall under Quadrant 3 or Quadrant 4, St. John’s is just on the right side of the bubble and the general mediocrity of the Big East leaves the Red Storm in a precarious situation. They only have two more Quadrant 1 opportunities in the regular season – on the road against Marquette and home against Villanova – and they probably need to win one to feel comfortable with their resume.
Marquette is on track to earn a top-four seed and a win Tuesday would maintain that trajectory.
Florida State (16-5): No. 31 NET; 2-3 Quadrant 1, 4-1 Quadrant 2, 4-1 Quadrant 3, 6-0 Quadrant 4
Stadium’s NCAA Tournament Projection: No. 7 seed
Syracuse (16-6): No. 42 NET; 2-2 Quadrant 1, 3-2 Quadrant 2, 7-2 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4
Stadium’s NCAA Tournament Projection: No. 7 seed
Through Monday, Florida State’s resume is slightly better than Syracuse’s, but the Orange arguably have the best win in college basketball thanks to their victory at Duke. Both schools are No. 7 seeds in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections and they’d safely make the tournament if the season ended today.
But the strength of the ACC and their relative standing among the conference’s second tier of teams leaves a wide range of potential seeds for the Seminoles and Orange. Syracuse has six Quadrant 1 games left in the regular season and Florida State has five. A few more quality wins could propel them toward a No. 5 seed, while a conference record close to .500 could sink them closer to the bubble.
The ACC offers no shortage of resume-boosting opportunities. Now it’s a matter of capitalizing on them.
Missouri (11-9): No. 84 NET; 0-6 Quadrant 1, 4-3 Quadrant 2, 2-0 Quadrant 3, 5-0 Quadrant 4
Tennessee (20-1): No. 4 NET; 4-1 Quadrant 1, 6-0 Quadrant 2, 4-0 Quadrant 3, 5-0 Quadrant 4
Stadium’s NCAA Tournament Projection: No. 1 seed
If Tennessee can navigate home games against Missouri (No. 84 NET), South Carolina (No. 104) and Vanderbilt (No. 114), then the Volunteers will finish the regular season without a “bad loss.” Six of their 10 remaining games before the SEC Tournament will fall under Quadrant 1, so the Vols could probably lose as many as two of those six and still contend for a No. 1 seed.
Kansas (17-5): No. 17 NET; 8-4 Quadrant 1, 5-1 Quadrant 2, 1-0 Quadrant 3, 3-0 Quadrant 4
Stadium’s NCAA Tournament Projection: No. 3 seed
Kansas State (16-5): No. 30 NET; 3-2 Quadrant 1, 4-3 Quadrant 2, 6-0 Quadrant 3, 3-0 Quadrant 4
Stadium’s NCAA Tournament Projection: No. 6 seed
If Kansas State defends its home court Tuesday, you can guarantee the “Is this the season Kansas doesn’t win at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title?” storyline gets fired up once again. After Monday, Kansas State and Baylor share the conference lead with a 6-2 record, while Iowa State is 7-3, Kansas is a half-game back at 6-3 and Texas Tech is one game behind at 6-4.
Seven of the Wildcats’ 10 remaining regular season games will fall under Quadrant 1 and four are on the road, so if they don’t win tonight, they’ll have their work cut out for them away from home in order to add more quality wins.
Kansas has the second-most Quadrant 1 wins in the country (eight) and it still has the chance to add up to six more in the regular season. But the Jayhawks are just 1-5 on the road this season, including losses in their last three games away from home.
A loss for Kansas doesn’t mean the Jayhawks can’t win at least a share of the Big 12 or can’t earn a top-two seed for the 10th season in a row, but another road loss may force us to seriously question if they’re simply an above-average Big 12 team without center Udoka Azubuike.