Boise State vs. Utah State Prediction, Game Preview

Boise State vs. Utah State prediction and game preview. Projecting who wins Saturday night’s matchup between the Broncos and Aggies.

When: Saturday, Oct. 1 – 10:15 p.m. ET
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
TV Broadcast: ESPN 2

You can’t start off much better than the way Bryan Harsin’s Broncos have in 2016. They’ve taken their first three games of the season by a combined score of 114-62. After winning on the road against Louisiana-Lafayette, Boise State hosted Washington State and barely staved off the Cougars for a 31-28 win. Last weekend saw the Broncos take down Oregon State on the road, 38-24, and now they’re back home in Boise once again.

The Aggies have been through a bit more of an up-and-down season so far. In the first college football game ever live streamed on Twitter in Week 1, Utah State beat up on Weber State, 45-6. The scoreboard was flipped on the Aggies the week after, though, with a 45-7 loss to USC. After hanging a 14-point win on Arkansas State, Utah State fell again last weekend to Air Force, 27-20.

Boise State is in control of the all-time series, 15-5. The Broncos did fall to the Aggies last season, though, 52-26. That broke a 12-game winning streak for Boise State. However, the last seven times Utah State has visited Albertsons Stadium, it’s been the Broncos who came out with the win. Last year’s win over Boise State was the Aggies’ first win in the series since Nov. 1, 1997.

What To Know About Boise State

In his sophomore season, quarterback Brett Rypien was expected to improve off a stellar 2015 campaign. So far, he’s been more hot-and-cold than Ross and Rachel. Rypien has completed 57.7 percent of his passes for 861 yards and four touchdowns, but he also threw all three of his interceptions against Washington State. Still, with Thomas Sperbeck, Cedric Wilson and Chaz Anderson, Rypien has led the charge of the nation’s No. 20-ranked passing offense (321 yards/game).

The aerial attack is made easier by the production Boise State has gotten from running back Jeremy McNichols. Last week, he ripped Oregon State for 208 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 28 carries. McNichols also caught four passes for 20 yards and a score. If he’s getting involved in the passing game and gashing the front seven on the ground, the Broncos are tough to defend.

What to Know About Utah State

The Aggies are a man down on offense … a very important man down. Devante Mays left last week’s game with a leg injury and will be out for this matchup. Without him, Utah State is missing 8.7 rushing yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns. That means there will be more carries for Tonny Lindsey, who has rushed for 200 yards on 51 carries with three touchdowns. Lajuan Hunt will spell Lindsey to change the pace, too.

Quarterback Kent Myers will certainly look to do some damage with his legs. He’s only averaging 2.9 yards per carry with one rushing touchdown, but it’s the threat he presents that makes the biggest difference. He simply needs to be careful with the football. While he’s completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 800 yards, he’s also thrown three interceptions to his three touchdowns.

Advantages

Offense: Boise State – As simple as it can be, the Broncos are healthier and more talented across the board.

Defense: Boise State – Once again, the Broncos have more playmakers on the defensive side of the ball.

Special Teams: Boise State – With Wilson and McNichols returning kicks and Tyler Rausa being 3-of-4 on field goal attempts, the Broncos get the nod.

Coaching: Bosie State – Simply put, Harsin is a better head coach with a more talented staff than Matt Wells.

Matchup To Watch

Brett Rypien vs. Utah State secondary

Rypien has the talent to tear secondaries to shreds. Utah State enters this one with the No. 36 passing defense (195.3 yards/game), so it will be interesting to see how the Boise State quarterback tries to attack the Aggies’ defensive backs. He found McNichols quite a bit last week, and that could be the case this time around, too. The threat of McNichols could force the Utah State secondary to keep one eye on the flats, and that could open up Anderson, Sperbeck and Wilson down the field. The Aggies will need to stick to their assignments and wrap up.

Betting Odds

Spread: Boise State – 20
Over/Under: 59