Baylor vs. Texas Prediction, Game Preview

    Baylor vs. Texas prediction and game preview. The Bears try to rebound after their loss to TCU as they host the Longhorns in Waco.

    November 30, 2015


    This isn’t just a play-out-the-string game. Baylor (9-2) has a shot at going to the Sugar Bowl with a win, while Texas (5-7) would look a whole bunch better going into the offseason with a win over the Bears. Check out the Baylor vs. Texas prediction and game preview.

    Baylor vs. Texas Game Preview

    Broadcast

    Date: Saturday, December 5
    Game Time: 12:00 pm
    Venue: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX

    Network:

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    Why You Need To Care

    Baylor might have lost to TCU last week, but if it beats Texas this week and moves up a bit in the CFP rankings, it’ll get the New Year’s Six call to go to the Sugar Bowl. It might not be the playoff run the program was hoping for, but down to the third-string quarterback and after two loses in the last three weeks, it would still be a terrific way to end yet another strong year. Even with the fun slowing down, this is still the No. 1 offense in college football with the No. 1 scoring attack and the No. 1 most efficient air show.

    But on a whole other level, this would be the third straight win over the Longhorns and the fifth in six years. Considering this is the 104th matchup between the two schools – starting out with a 48-0 Texas win in 1903 – winning this game is always going to be a really, really big deal.

    Texas is a very, very young team that’s not quite improving like it needs to as the season’s going on. It gave Texas Tech a run last week, but the 48-45 loss guaranteed a losing season. Now it’s time to save a little bit of face. As rough as things have been, the loss to Iowa State was at least offset by the win over Oklahoma while three of the losses came by a combined seven points.

    The Longhorns have been way too inconsistent and way too ineffective in key moments, but to be cliché, this is the bowl game. This is the season-ender, and this is the time when the team can let it all loose. Baylor has almost everything to lose here – a loss would probably put TCU into the Sugar Bowl – while the role of spoiler would end up looking strong. It would show a sign of life to build off of for the next eight months.

    Why Texas Will Win

    The defense has been excellent lately at taking the ball away. The one main positive this season has been the turnover margin, coming in at a +7 on the year and finishing even or ahead in the battle in eight of the 12 games. With four takeaways last week against Texas Tech and four three weeks ago against Kansas, the chances have been there to help out the offense.

    It’s this simple – force mistakes, get points. Texas has come up with two or more takeaways five times and scored 42 points or more in four of them. In the other six games with fewer than two takeaways, Texas never scored more than 27. Baylor has turned it over 11 times in the last three games, and two more times in four of the last five games.

    Why Baylor Will Win

    The Texas offense just isn’t there to keep up the pace. Baylor could simply outbomb its way to a win considering Texas has only thrown for more than 200 yards once in the last eight games and just twice on the year. Worse yet, the Longhorn attack has just three touchdown passes in the last five games and just eight on the season. The running game moves the ball, but against the Bears, the firepower has to be there.

    But Baylor can run, too. The ground game cranked up 577 yards over the last two weeks – even with the slop and rain of the TCU game – with two touchdowns or more in every game but the win over Kansas State. The Texas D that stuffed Oklahoma’s running game cold and was so good against Oklahoma State as allowed 238 yards or more in three of the last four games and seven times on the year including a 293-yard, five-touchdown day from Texas Tech last week.

    Player Who Matters

    For all the problems in last week’s loss to Texas Tech, did Texas just find its new superstar in Chris Warren III? With injuries hitting the Longhorns hard – including top tailbacks D’Onta Foreman and Johnathan Gray – Warren has stepped up with phenomenal 276-yard, four touchdown day against Texas Tech. Everyone runs wild on the Red Raiders, but the 6-2, 232-pound freshman looked the part of a potential workhorse the offense can work around next year. Another big day will get the hype machine rolling.

    What’s Going To Happen?

    Texas will get the ground attack rolling, but the defense won’t be able to come up with enough stops against a resurgent Baylor attack that’ll be really, really happy to play in better conditions than it dealt with in Fort Worth. Bear QB Chris Johnson will look far better.

    Baylor vs. Texas Prediction

    Final Score: Baylor 41, Texas 23, Line: Baylor -20.5, o/u: 68

    Must See Rating: 5: The Big Short – 1: CMA Country Christmas … 3

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