Baylor vs. North Carolina Prediction, Russell Athletic Bowl Game Preview

The Baylor Bears (9-3) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (11-2), two of the nation’s most explosive programs, meet in Orlando for this year’s Russell Athletic Bowl. Check out the Baylor vs. North Carolina prediction and game preview.

Baylor vs. North Carolina Game Preview

Broadcast

Date: Tuesday, December 29
Game Time: 5:30 ET
Network: ESPN

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Why You Need To Care

Fans are tickled to see Baylor and North Carolina matched up because of their penchant for quick strikes and frequent scores. The Bears and the Heels, though? Not so much, since both schools were still dreaming of a New Year’s Six bowl invite before losing on the final weekend of the regular season.

Baylor could arrive in Orlando with a particularly surly attitude. The Bears began the year ranked No. 4, and they were in the playoff hunt right up until the middle of November. But then a once-promising campaign veered off in the wrong direction, with the team unable to withstand a spate of crushing injuries at quarterback. Baylor went 1-3 down the stretch, losing to Texas on Dec. 5 in a game that would have sent the team to the Sugar Bowl had it held serve in Waco. Now, fully aware that their overall talent base is playoff-caliber, the Bears must regroup and refocus on reaching 10 wins for a third year in a row.

Carolina figures to be considerably more appreciative of this invitation. It’ll come on the back end of a breakthrough season for the program and its coach, Larry Fedora, who began 2015 on the hot seat and ended it with a seven-year contract extension and a hefty raise. At Bank of America Stadium, the Heels were 0-2. Everywhere else, unbeaten. Carolina dropped its opener to South Carolina and the ACC Championship Game to Clemson … both, ironically, in Charlotte. Despite falling to the Tigers, it’s been a momentous season for Carolina, which has long been one of the ACC’s sleeping giants. Fedora has awoken the beast, and now has a higher tier bowl event to further spread the brand and win 12 games for the first time in school history.

Why Baylor Will Win

Three weeks is a ton of time for Art Briles to get his offense ready.

Fedora is terrific, but he’s no Briles as offensive innovators go. And as much progress as the Carolina D has made under Gene Chizik in 2015, it still won’t be ready to corral the Bear attack. Remember, against the one really good offense the Heels have faced this season, they gave up 45 points and 608 yards in the loss to Clemson.

Third-string QB Chris Johnson has gotten the green light to practice, so Briles won’t have to line up wide receivers behind center, as he did in the Texas finale. There might not be a Shock Linwood to hand off to or a Corey Coleman to throw to – those two are out for the bowl game – but the Spencer Drango-led O-line will give everyone time to work. It’s Baylor – there are more than enough good players to pick up the slack.

Why North Carolina Will Win

Carolina is one of the nation’s few teams that can match Baylor’s scoring punch.

The Bears and the Heels rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in yards per play. But unlike Baylor, Carolina has no uncertainty at quarterback. Dual-threat Marquise Williams was the next best thing to Deshaun Watson in the ACC this season, accounting for 32 scores and almost 3,700 total yards. And just like this week’s opponent, his supporting cast is stacked as well. While the Heels don’t have an outside playmaker the caliber of Coleman, RB Elijah Hood is a force between the tackles, the receiving corps is deep and four linemen were named All-ACC. Led by OG Landon Turner, the front wall is capable of limiting the damage of Baylor’s best D-linemen, NT Andrew Billings and DE Shawn Oakman.

Player Who Matters

Chizik’s gameplan will be obvious—frustrate and rattle Johnson so that he makes mistakes and so that Coleman cannot take the game over.

Coleman was mortal over the final month, in part because of the situation at quarterback. The Tar Heels must ratchet up the pass rush, a problem this season, and also limit the damage of the complementary Bear receivers, KD Cannon and Jay Lee. A key number to keep in mind for this game is 25, representing both Baylor’s total turnovers and Carolina’s takeaways. If the Heels can jump Johnson’s routes and strip the ball from the backs and receivers, it could swing the pendulum in their favor.

What’s Going To Happen?

Motivation, as is often the case this time of year, will be a crucial factor in an entertaining and high-scoring shootout.

Considering where the bar was set just a month ago, can Baylor really be focused and energized for this game? Unlikely. Carolina, on the other hand, views the Russell Athletic Bowl as a statement opportunity. And it’ll operate accordingly. Both teams will move the ball freely, partaking in a spread attack clinic. But Johnson will not outplay Williams, and a couple of his turnovers in the second half will provide the Tar Heels with the edge they need for a while – and then the Baylor offense will kick it back in. The Bears will crank up the passing game to a whole other level in one of the best shootouts of the bowl season.