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It's the game of the week, if not the month, if not the regular season: No. 1 Alabama at No. 4 LSU. Its outcome will likely decide the winner of the SEC
October 30, 2018It’s the game of the week, if not the month, if not the regular season: No. 1 Alabama at No. 4 LSU. Its outcome will likely decide the winner of the SEC West, causing a chain reaction that could affect the SEC Championship and the College Football Playoff as the SEC could potentially put two teams in the four-team field once again.
Here are three keys for each team ahead of their Week 10 showdown.
Let Tua loose on the Tigers
Good luck finding a weakness in Alabama’s offense. The main reason: its quarterback. In the Crimson Tide’s eight games this season, sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s worst single-game raw QBR was 82.7 against Missouri, when he was 12-of-22 for 265 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. The highest possible QBR is 100 and his QBR in the other seven games was 93 or higher, including five games with at least a 98 QBR.
In limited action – he’s only thrown 25 passes in the third quarter and none in the fourth quarter – Tagovailoa has completed 70 percent of his passes for 2,066 yards, 25 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s been sacked just three times.
LSU’s defense has been good, but not elite, against the pass. The Tigers rank 38th nationally in passing yards allowed (199 per game) and they’re tied for first in the country with 14 interceptions. They might end Tagovailoa’s interception-free stat line this season, but that shouldn’t stop Alabama from aggressive play-calling on offense.
Force LSU to try to beat Alabama through the air
LSU’s passing attack is nearly on the opposite end of the spectrum from Alabama. The Tigers rank 102nd nationally with 192 passing yards per game. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow has just six touchdown passes to three interceptions this season.
It wouldn’t hurt to load the box in an effort to stop the run, but even if the Tigers reach or surpass their season average of 190 rushing yards, the Crimson Tide need to make LSU beat their secondary through the air. The more times Alabama can force LSU into 3rd & long situations, the more stops the Tide should get. The Tigers are converting on third down just 37 percent of the time.
Play with poise
This is Alabama’s toughest game so far this season both in terms of opponent and road environment. Alabama is a two-touchdown favorite in Vegas, but if LSU takes an early lead or is within striking distance of the Crimson Tide in the second half, Nick Saban’s squad can’t afford to panic.
Alabama is as talented on offense as any team in the country and that alone could allow the Tide to make a run at a potential undefeated season. It has the weapons to erase a deficit quickly, should it fall behind, and the team’s defense is still very talented, even if it has dropped off slightly from recent years.
This year’s Alabama team might find itself in uncharted territory on Saturday, but it’s nothing the Crimson Tide can’t handle given its coaching staff, roster and big-game experience.
Get off to a competitive start
We’re not asking the Tigers to take a 21-0 lead in the first quarter against the Crimson Tide, but in order to have a chance to win, LSU needs to keep its head above water early in the game. Most of Alabama’s opponents haven’t.
During the first quarter alone, the Tide went up 28-0 on Tennessee and Louisiana, 21-0 against Arkansas, 28-7 against Ole Miss, 19-0 against Arkansas State and 14-0 versus Louisville.
Even Texas A&M, which only trailed 14-7 after the first quarter, had a disastrous start with an interception on the second play from scrimmage, giving up a 30-yard touchdown on Alabama’s first offensive play and then going three-and-out on the Aggies’ next possession.
Alabama can score quickly and it can score in bunches. Sophomore wide receiver Jerry Jeudy is averaging 25 yards per catch with 10 touchdowns on 31 receptions. True freshman Jaylen Waddle isn’t far behind at 21.8 yards per reception. Six players have a season-long reception of at least 50 yards.
Even if LSU can only muster field goals early, the Tigers need to avoid early turnovers and three-and-outs, while controlling the clock with running backs Nick Brossette and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Joe Burrow might need to replicate his game against Ole Miss
Against Ole Miss, Burrow was 18-for-25 for 292 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions with nine rushes for 96 yards and a score. It was his best game this season in terms of completion percentage, yards, touchdown passes and rushing yards. In the three games since, Burrow has completed 54 percent of his passes with three interceptions and no touchdowns.
With Heisman Trophy front-runner Tua Tagovailoa as the opposing quarterback lining up under center, Burrow will likely need to return to his Sept. 29 form when he played the Rebels. If Alabama begins to approach anywhere even remotely close to its national-best 54 points per game average, LSU can’t afford for Burrow to be anything short of excellent.
Force Alabama to kick field goals
It’s a testament to how dominant Alabama has been this season when it’s a challenge to find potential exploitable weaknesses for the Crimson Tide. So here we are, examining Alabama redshirt freshman kicker Joseph Bulovas’ game log.
Bulovas is nearly perfect on extra points – 47 for 48 on the season – but just 8-of-12 on field goal attempts. Three of his four misses were inside of 40 yards.
Maybe it’s unfair to project the struggles of past Alabama kickers, whether it’s Andy Pappanastos’ two misses in last year’s national championship game, Adam Griffith’s pair of missed field goals in a six-point loss at Ole Miss in 2014 or Cade Foster’s 0-for-3 day with two misses and a blocked field goal in a 34-28 loss to Auburn in 2013. But there’s something about that position at that school that just feels like it’s often a question mark in big moments.
So if LSU’s defense can keep Alabama out of the end zone and force the Crimson Tide to settle for field goals in a close game, maybe the moment, opponent and enormity of playing in Tiger Stadium get to Bulovas.
It wouldn’t be the first time an Alabama kicker has missed one, or multiple, field goal(s) in a high-pressure situation.