Alabama vs. Auburn Prediction, Game Preview

It took a kick-six in 2013, and Cam Newton in 2010. Other than that, it’s been Alabama (10-1) in the Iron Bowl since 2007, and now it’s up to Auburn (6-5) to really screw things up. Right now, no one’s playing better – Clemson included – than Alabama, but the Tigers are rested, they’ve got a bowl bid secured, and they have nothing to lose other than bragging rights for a year. Check out the Alabama vs. Auburn prediction and game preview.

Alabama vs. Auburn Game Preview

Broadcast

Date: Saturday, November 28
Game Time: 3:30 pm
Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL

Network: CBS

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Why You Need To Care

There’s nothing on the line here for Alabama other than the SEC West, most likely the SEC championship, a possible playoff spot, and having to hear it from Auburn fans for an entire year.

While the Ohio States and Oklahomas of the world are either falling or stumbling, Alabama has cranked things up to 11 at just the right time, coming up with a dominant second half of the season with a defense that appears on a mission since the loss to Ole Miss, and an offense that’s one big ground game away from cranking out its second Heisman Trophy-winning running back.

Clemson has been terrific, but it struggled at times against some mediocre-to-bad teams. Iowa is unbeaten, but it’s not moving the needle aesthetically. Alabama? Alabama just looks like a potential national champion. When it comes to the eye test everyone is referring to, this is it.

And Auburn can take it all away.

Everything has calmed down a bit for the Tigers.

After a brutal start to the season, and the realization that the team just wasn’t all that great, reality has settled in in an Is What It Is campaign. There’s no SEC title, and there’s no playoff bid, but that goes for 13 other teams, too. Really, if Auburn isn’t playing for the whole ball of wax, is there any difference between being 7-5 and 10-2 if one of those wins completely messes up Alabama’s shot at being happy?

The Tigers have lost three of their last four SEC games, the offense hasn’t quite worked, and the defense has been just okay, but the engine got revved up last week in a win over Idaho, and one win is all it’ll take to define the season. Everything else will be forgotten with a victory over Alabama.

Why Alabama Will Win

If Auburn can’t throw effectively, there’s no need to watch this game.

The 2011 Alabama run defense was special – other than the game against Georgia Southern which Nick Saban famously just ranted about – but this one is close. No one’s moving the ball a lick against this defensive front three that’s allowed just 856 yards on the year with six scores. Better year, only two teams – Georgia and Tennessee – averaged more than three yards per carry, and they’re the only two to who hit the 100-yard mark.

This is nowhere near the Auburn running game of past seasons, but it’s been effective over the last three games cranking out 821 yards and seven touchdowns – five of them coming against Iowa. The Tigers can’t count on that working, so unless the passing attack can roll like it did in the middle of the season over a three-game stretch against Kentucky, Arkansas and Ole Miss, it’s going to be a long, long day.

Why Auburn Will Win

Lost in the rough season has been a nice campaign from the Auburn defensive front against the run. Leonard Fournette and Alex Collins aside, the Tigers have slowed down most of the SEC’s top running games and haven’t been gouged too badly. That’s partly because everyone is having so much fun throwing the ball on the beleaguered AU secondary, but with all forces trained on stopping Derrick Henry, there’s a chance on the road that the D can slow down the Crimson Tide attack just a bit.

But Auburn can’t beat Alabama straight up. It’s going to take a whole slew of Crimson Tide mistakes for the Tigers to pull off the upset, and for all the problems and all the issues, they’ve been great when it comes to turnover margin. Auburn has only lost the turnover battle once in the last eight games, going a +10 over the span, and it has to happen again. If the Tigers aren’t at least a +3, forget about it.

Player Who Matters

In 2009, Alabama RB Mark Ingram was on his way to a Heisman-winning season, but lost in how that all went down was how he needed to rock Florida in the SEC championship game to get it. Why? He was held to 30 yards on 16 carries against an okay Auburn team looking to make its season by pulling off an upset over the best team in college football. This time around, because no one outside of the Pacific Time Zone has seen Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey on a regular basis, and because Clemson and Deshaun Watson stopped playing real teams weeks ago, the Heisman is Derrick Henry’s to lose.

Just like Ingram all but won it with a big game against South Carolina – and got it against the Gators – Henry took over by cranking out 210 yards and three touchdowns against LSU with everyone watching. No. 2 can seal the deal against Florida next week, but first he needs to come up with a huge day to carry the offense to Atlanta. Last year he ran only five times for 72 yards and a score against the Tigers – he’ll get the ball a few more times than that.

What’s Going To Happen?

The emotion, the fire, and everything that goes into a rivalry game will come out in the first quarter, and then the Alabama lines will take over. Auburn won’t be able to throw well enough, and the defense won’t be able to stop Henry in the second half as the tide rolls on.