5 Reasons Why Michigan State Will Win The Cotton Bowl

Spartans’ ball control, being mistake-free, Connor Cook – here are five reasons why Michigan State should win the Cotton Bowl.

1. Time of possession.

When you run a Heisman-winning running back behind an outstanding offensive line, you’re going to control the clock for long periods of time. And that’s what Alabama did all year, taking the air out of the ball in the second halves of games with brutal drive after brutal drive. Michigan State can play that game, too, finishing tenth in the nation in time of possession – Alabama finished fifth.

Last year’s Crimson Tide offense could hit the home run on a regular basis with Amari Cooper, but this year’s attack doesn’t really do that. Pound the ball with Derrick Henry, rely on the defense, grind the game out. But that’s hard to do when the other team is able to come up with long drives, too. Michigan State won’t be able to run the ball, but Connor Cook should be able to make the safe, effective throws to keep things moving.

In the biggest games this year, the O always kept the D off the field. MSU had the ball for 36:38 against Iowa – famously helped by the epic game-winning drive in the fourth – and the Cookless Spartans had it over 38 minutes against Ohio State. MSU had the ball for 33:26 against Oregon, 30:11 against Michigan, and even 32:25 in the loss to Nebraska.

2. The Spartans aren’t going to screw up.

Michigan State doesn’t need to pitch a perfect game to beat Alabama – it’s good enough to win this thing straight up – but it’ll help if it doesn’t start making a bunch of silly mistakes. The Crimson Tide will get a few flags thrown their way here and there, but they drop the hammer when they’re able to capitalize on turnovers. Michigan State doesn’t beat itself, averaging just five penalties a game and ranking fourth in the nation in turnover margin. Alabama lost the turnover battle in its last four losses going back to the 2014 Sugar Bowl vs. Oklahoma. Going back to 2008, the Auburn kick-six game of 2013 was the only time in all 11 losses the Crimson Tide won the turnover margin and lost.

3. Michigan State’s coaching staff gets a month to prepare for Derrick Henry?

The Spartan secondary might be a bit of a problem, but the run defense has been the real deal throughout the season against some terrific backs and running games.

Oregon’s Royce Freeman tore off 1,706 yards on the year averaging 6.6 yards per pop. He came up with 92 yards averaging 3.8 yards per carry against Michigan State.

Michigan pounded out 198 yards or more over a grinding five-game stretch, and then averaged 1.88 yards per carry running for 62 in the loss to MSU.

Ohio State ran for just 86 yards and averaged under three yards per pop against the Spartan D with Ezekiel Elliott running for 33 yards on 12 carries, while the tough Iowa ground game ran for 52 yards averaging 2.17 yards per carry.

4. Maybe, just maybe, Alabama’s wins just aren’t that great

If you buy into the SEC Is Overrated theory, then Alabama was a great team that got through a slew of okay-to-very good teams.

Compared to, say, Clemson, Alabama played a murderer’s row of a schedule beating Wisconsin, Georgia, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn and Florida, along with a Middle Tennessee team that went bowling. There’s no argument – it was a good schedule with lots of nasty landmines, including the loss to Ole Miss – but it’s not like rolling through last year’s SEC West, bad bowl season or not. Auburn, Texas A&M and Georgia turned out to be relative duds compared to the expectations, Wisconsin beat absolutely no one, and Florida had no offense left by the time the SEC championship game came around. Michigan State isn’t a team that’s going to be intimidated just because Alabama shut down Leonard Fournette and ripped through Georgia, Texas A&M and Mississippi State. This Spartan program has been through the wars over the last three years.

5. Connor Cook

There are varying opinions about which quarterback will go first in the 2016 NFL Draft, but even if it’s Jared Goff or Paxton Lynch, at the very least, Connor Cook is a first rounder who’ll be among the top three QBs off the board.

Ole Miss’ Chad Kelly has NFL talent, and Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott is a likely third rounder, but the Crimson Tide secondary hasn’t been challenged by a pure pocket passer this year anywhere near Cook’s caliber. The MSU senior has won two Big Ten titles, a Rose Bowl, a Cotton Bowl, and did just about everything except take the program that one extra step up. One of the best big game quarterbacks in college football history, there’s a chance this game is his. If he really is the NFL franchise quarterback many think he’ll be, then he could be just good enough to be the difference.