5 Reasons Why Alabama Will Win The Cotton Bowl

Alabama’s defense, Jake Coker, Michigan State’s pass defense – here are five reasons why Alabama should win the Cotton Bowl.

1. The defensive front three might be the best in the Nick Saban era.

Alabama has helped stock the NFL with defensive linemen over the years, but it’s been a while since it sent a killer off to the next level. The Bama front three is always outstanding, but 2016 will make it five drafts since Marcell Dareus was taken by Buffalo with the third overall pick. Calling it a drought of early round Alabama defensive line draft picks is a bit of a reach, and Nick Saban has had his share of outstanding talents up front, but this group is at a whole other level.

6-4, 313-pound Jarran Reed is one of the top 30 overall prospects as either a 3-4 end of a 4-3 tackle, while 6-3, 283-pound Jonathan Allen is likely an early second-rounder. The star of the show is A’Shawn Robinson, a 6-3, 312-pound interior presence who’ll probably go in the first ten picks if and when he comes out early.

Throw in veteran Darren Lake who can work on the nose, and a deep group of talented young players providing the depth, and the Crimson Tide run D won’t wear down. Just as importantly against a pro quarterback in Connor Cook …

2. The pass rush might be the best in the Nick Saban era.

The Alabama pass rush has hardly been a problem over the last several years, but it hasn’t been dominant. Phenomenal Crimson Tide defenses have done more than fine coming up with around 30 sacks a year, but there hasn’t always been the consistent pressure this year’s group has been able to generate with 46 sacks in 13 games after coming up with 31 in 14 games last season.

Jonathan Allen has been the star with ten sacks, and linebackers Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson have been great with 9.5 and five sacks, respectively, but it’s been a group effort with 16 different Crimson Tide defenders generating at least a half a sack. Michigan State has only allowed 17 sacks on the year, but Cook won’t be comfortable.

3. Jake Coker is better than you think.

There’s so much talent across the board for Alabama year after year, and AJ McCarron was so strong for so long, it’s almost been a shocker over the last two seasons when the quarterback play wasn’t awful. Blake Sims was terrific last year, and Jake Coker came up with a terrific 2015 completing 66% of his passes with 17 touchdowns and eight picks – with just one in the last five games – while showing off excellent mobility, moxie and leadership for a team looking for someone who could take the offense by the horns.

It’s not the hardest job in college sports considering he has a Heisman-winner to hand off to and an outstanding line to work behind, but Coker always seemed able to come up with the one big drive, the one key throw, and the one play the team needs to have to turn good battles into easy wins. Connor Cook is the star passer in Arlington because he has to be, but in terms of effectiveness, don’t be stunned if Coker holds his own because …

4. Michigan State’s pass defense sort of stinks.

No one was throwing consistently well on the Spartans during their Rose Bowl run of 2013, but the 2014 group had its problems even before Bryce Petty and Baylor game went gonzo for over 600 yards in the Cotton Bowl. This year’s secondary isn’t awful, but it’ll give up midrange throws and it’s not the brick wall of past years allowing teams to hit 59% of their throws with eight passing games cranking up 200 yards or more. By comparison, the 2013 secondary allowed teams to complete just over 47% of their passes with just five teams throwing for 200 yards or more. Alabama doesn’t have to bomb away, but Coker has to hit the easy throws that are there for the taking because …

5. Derrick Henry is rested.

Michigan State’s defensive front seven has been outstanding all season long against tough running teams, allowing just 86 yards against Ohio State and 52 against Iowa. Don’t expect Derrick Henry to go off for over 200 yards, and he’ll be bottled up early on, but Alabama’s running game is about the drip leading to the flood. Henry has to be fed the ball over and over and over again, and eventually, it’s going to start to work, even against a defense as strong as Michigan State’s. If Henry runs 30+ times, it might be a factor if Alabama goes off to play in the national title game, but for now, he should be ready to handle the workload. Just as importantly, the Alabama O line is rested, too.