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The NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl 5 Keys To Victory: What's it going to take for Nevada to win?
December 26, 2015The NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl 5 Keys To Victory: What’s it going to take for Nevada to win?
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The offense moves on the ground, but the Wolf Pack has to take advantage of the Rams cheating up to slow down the run. The O can throw, but it just doesn’t do it well on a consistent basis. On the year, Nevada is 5-1 when completing 56% of its passes. It’s not about the offense bombing away or the passing attack carrying the day, it’s about being effective because …
Nevada has to complete passes to keep the offense moving, but if the passing game is chucking it, it’s probably because the ground game isn’t working right. On the year, Nevada is 1-3 when it threw for 200 yards or more. When the O runs for 200 yards or more, Nevada is 6-1. It all falls into place – run well, control the clock, keep the defense off the field. This isn’t a team built to come from behind, and it’s not built to get into a wild shootout. Run well, and neither has to happen.
Because this isn’t a high-octane offense, and because the goal is to rely on the running game, not screwing up is a big deal. Yeah, yeah, yeah, turnovers are a big deal for every team, but on the year Nevada is 3-1 when it doesn’t turn the ball over. Mistakes haven’t been a huge problem with just 12 turnovers on the year, but five of them came in the final two games – bot losses. Colorado State is 113th in the nation in turnover margin.
Nevada’s run defense has traditionally been horrific. It’s been great at attacking at getting behind the line and getting to the quarterback, but it hasn’t translated into production against the run. The Wolf Pack have been beaten up and pounded on over the years – they allowed 3,102 rushing yards and 34 scores in 2013 – but this year’s run D hasn’t been awful. However – again, it all ties in together with ball control, running game, and mistakes – the defense has to come up with stops. On the year, Nevada is 1-6 when allowing 150 rushing yards or more and 5-0 when allowing fewer.
Colorado State has a terrific punting game and it tremendous on both kick and punt returns. At the very least, Nevada has to hold its own. To keep driving this home, Nevada can’t afford to not be on the right side in several different areas offensively, and that means it can’t start too many drives deep in its own territory. Nevada’s punting game isn’t anything special, and there have only been 11 punt returns on the year. Andrew Celis has done a nice job on the few punt returns he’s had a chance at, averaging 13.9 yards per pop. As long as Nevada is starting from around its 35 or so, it’ll be fine. Anything worse on a regular basis and forget it.