No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 7 Michigan State

Why Louisville will win: If the NCAA Tournament is all about guard play – and history says that’s exactly what it was – the Cardinals should be in good shape. The trio of Quentin Snider, Terry Rozier and Wayne Blackshear play as well together as any group in the country, and their blend of speed, quickness and relentless drive to the rim breaks down opponents’ will.

Meanwhile, few teams can match the size of the Cardinals in the paint, and forward Montrezl Harrell can be absolutely dominant on both sides of the floor.

The question is whether Louisville can put together a solid effort for a full 40 minutes without losing focus. If the Cardinals can, look out.

Why Michigan State will win: It’s tough to view Michigan State as a Cinderella, but considering where MSU was as a team a few weeks back, the Spartans were certainly no one’s pick to be in this position. They’ve done it with fantastic guard play from Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine, two players who couldn’t be more different on the perimeter.

Trice is the slasher, a quick, speedy ball-handler who also has a killer step-back jumper. Valentine is more muscle than finesse, but his deft shooting touch will force Louisville away from the bucket. He also has the toughness to battle inside. Branden Dawson hasn’t been on his game offensively, but he always makes an impact and will be ready to battle on both ends.

The question is how well Michigan State will handle Louisville’s length and quickness inside, but if anyone can find a way, it’s Tom Izzo.

What will happen: Louisville is finding ways to win, but Michigan State is playing with a nothing-to-lose attitude that will be tough to beat. The Cardinals will try to speed MSU up to take advantage of their superior speed and will look to take MSU out of its comfort zone, but Travis Trice won’t take the bait. The Spartans are playing as a single unit while Louisville freelances a bit too much. Look for MSU’s execution down the stretch to frustrate the Cards and send the Spartans to Indy.

Prediction: Michigan State 67, Louisville 63